{"id":448701,"date":"2022-05-18T06:04:59","date_gmt":"2022-05-18T03:04:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/analysts-note-parallels-with-march-2020-will-this-time-be-different\/"},"modified":"2022-05-18T06:04:59","modified_gmt":"2022-05-18T03:04:59","slug":"analysts-note-parallels-with-march-2020-will-this-time-be-different","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/analysts-note-parallels-with-march-2020-will-this-time-be-different\/","title":{"rendered":"# Analysts note parallels with March 2020: Will this time be different?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2719792a484\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2719792a484\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/analysts-note-parallels-with-march-2020-will-this-time-be-different\/#%E2%80%9D_Analysts_note_parallels_with_March_2020_Will_this_time_be_different_%E2%80%9C\" >&#8221; Analysts note parallels with March 2020: Will this time be different? &#8220;<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9D_Analysts_note_parallels_with_March_2020_Will_this_time_be_different_%E2%80%9C\"><\/span>&#8221; Analysts note parallels with March 2020: Will this time be different? &#8220;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-2a0745c6>Analysts in both crypto and traditional markets have noted some startling similarities between the recent downturn and the one caused by a pandemic panic in March, 2020.<\/p>\n<p>The real question is whether it\u2019s the start of a larger downturn or if there will be a significant bounce-back as in 2020 that led to an extended bull run in both crypto and stocks markets.<\/p>\n<p>Podcaster and author of The Pomp Letter, Anthony \u201cPomp\u201d Pompliano is on the permabull side of the ledger, tweeting on May 18 that since March 1, 2020 when one Bitcoin cost about $8,545, \u201cBitcoin is up 340%.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin is up 340% since March 1, 2020.<\/p>\n<p>As central banks around the world devalued their currencies at a historic rate, there is only one asset that stood out from the pack.<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#bitcoin<\/a> is the savings <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/technology\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"4\" title=\"Technology\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">technology<\/a> that shields billions of people from undisciplined monetary policy.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Pomp  (@APompliano) <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/APompliano\/status\/1526633270825336833?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 17, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\nAmong those hopeful of a turnaround is investment firm Real Vision\u2019s CEO Raoul Pal who believes Bitcoin markets have been painting a pattern that shares traits with the March 2020 crash. <\/p>\n<p>In his May 13 <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realvision.com\/shows\/raoul-pal-adventures-in-crypto\/videos\/an-update-from-raoul-just-what-is-going-on-in-crypto-brOY\">episode<\/a> of Raoul Pal Adventures in Crypto, Pal explained that with the downward price action last week, Bitcoin (BTC) may have \u201cshot straight down\u201d to the bottom of the current wedge formation and is now in a range that will eventually lead to another rise in price. He said, <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cThat was exactly the kind of pattern we had in March 2020.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>On March 12, 2020, investors panic-sold many assets, including Bitcoin, as fear about how the market would be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and global lockdowns. On that day, Bitcoin fell 45% from $7,935 to $5,142 according to <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/en\/coins\/bitcoin\">CoinGecko<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>The current decline in traditional markets has led to a loss of $7.6 trillion in market cap from the tech heavy Nasdaq, in non-inflation adjusted terms, more than the dot-com bubble and the March 2020 sell-offs.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The numbers are obviously not adjusted for inflation but still mind-blowing to see in this context. <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/aHem93mhpo\">pic.twitter.com\/aHem93mhpo<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Mati Greenspan (@MatiGreenspan) <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MatiGreenspan\/status\/1526464635519610882?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 17, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged to 8 on May 17 which is the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Crypto?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Crypto<\/a> fear &amp; greed index is at 8 out of 100.<\/p>\n<p>The lowest number since the COVID-19 crash in March 2020. <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/jKVTcjrXV1\">pic.twitter.com\/jKVTcjrXV1<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoMichNL\/status\/1526453449386336257?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 17, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The 50 day moving average (MA) of financials, real estate, and technology investments is close to the overwhelmingly oversold levels seen just over two years ago. Respectively, in March 2020 those levels were 0, 0, and 1 compared to 2, 3, and 4 so far in May based on data from Fidelity Investments. In a May 18 <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TimmerFidelity\/status\/1526614776020758528\">tweet<\/a>, Fidelity\u2019s own Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer called March 2020 \u201cone of the most oversold setups in the history of the market.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-05\/ee8caabe-885d-4691-b6ff-90300b32ff2b.jpg\"><\/figure>\n<p>Managing partner at The Future Fund Gary Black pointed out on May 17 that Tesla (TSLA) is trading at a 20% discount, the widest from analyst target price since March 2020. He added that \u201cOver the next 12 months, $TSLA rose 660%.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The last time <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24TSLA&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$TSLA<\/a> traded at this wide a discount (25%) vs the avg Street PT ($984) was in March 2020, at the height of the Covid crisis.  Over the next 12 months, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24TSLA&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$TSLA<\/a> rose 660%.  Source: <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5fcVwWX78i\">https:\/\/t.co\/5fcVwWX78i<\/a> <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/z2AHe5zkVi\">pic.twitter.com\/z2AHe5zkVi<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Gary Black (@garyblack00) <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/garyblack00\/status\/1526233193447301122?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 16, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 Index also displays similarities as it <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/investing\/index\/spx\">recorded<\/a> a 52-week low of 3,930 on May 12 only to bounce back to 4,088 by market close on May 17. Chief Market Strategist for financial research firm LPL Research observed in a May 18 tweet that the last time the index had done that was in March 2020.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The S&amp;P 500 just made a 2% gain in two of the past three days coming off of a 52-week low.<\/p>\n<p>The last times that h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ened?<\/p>\n<p>March 2009 and March 2020.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RyanDetrick\/status\/1526658769450680321?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 17, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Before traders get too excited, market conditions are very different now, with rising inflation and interest rates. Back then, governments reacted with unprecedented support packages to prop up prices. Reuters <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/signs-market-bottom-elude-investors-220358866.html\">reported<\/a> on May 14 that the strong bounce in the market in 2020 was fueled by what it called an \u201cunprecedented Fed stimulus.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>Analyst and author of the Rekt Capital <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a>letter, Rekt Capital <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/rektcapital\/status\/1526223696293253120\">tweeted<\/a> on May 17 that BTC \u201cis entering a period of outsized opportunity\u201d based on analysis of the Log Channel which he says resembles what happened in March 2020. However he\u2019s not clear if we\u2019ve bottomed out yet.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Related: <\/em><\/strong><strong><em>Fear &amp; Greed Index hits lowest since March 2020 even as Bitcoin price hits $30.5K<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Last time <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/BTC?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#BTC<\/a> lost the Log Channel was in March 2020<\/p>\n<p>This is when <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> also dipped below the blue 200-SMA<\/p>\n<p>Log Channel clearly shows BTC is entering a period of outsized opportunity<\/p>\n<p>But does price need to drop as low as to the 200-SMA to completely bottom?<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Crypto?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Crypto<\/a> <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hTxwfWYdkH\">pic.twitter.com\/hTxwfWYdkH<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/rektcapital\/status\/1526223696293253120?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 16, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is up 1.1% over the past 24 hours trading at $30,545.<\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. 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The real question is whether it\u2019s the start of a larger downturn or if there&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":448702,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/1200_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjItMDUvNDUyZGRmYzMtNGFhYi00NmM4LWI1YzgtOTU2Y2QxNTgwZDY0LmpwZw==.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[79806,74862,74939,73711],"class_list":["post-448701","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-market-analysis","tag-investments"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/448701","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=448701"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/448701\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/448702"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=448701"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=448701"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=448701"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}