{"id":45291,"date":"2020-08-12T16:50:00","date_gmt":"2020-08-12T13:50:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/predicting-a-level-grades-accurately-near-impossible-task\/"},"modified":"2020-08-12T16:50:00","modified_gmt":"2020-08-12T13:50:00","slug":"predicting-a-level-grades-accurately-near-impossible-task","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/predicting-a-level-grades-accurately-near-impossible-task\/","title":{"rendered":"#Predicting A-level grades accurately ‘near-impossible task’"},"content":{"rendered":"

“#Predicting A-level grades accurately ‘near-impossible task’<\/strong>”<\/p>\n

\n Predicting A-level grades is a “near-impossible task,” and the system needs to be overhauled to reduce inaccuracies that can lead to unfair disadvantages for some students, says new research from the UCL Institute of Education.<\/p>\n
\n <\/section>\n

For the working paper published today, academics from UCL Center for Education Policy & Equalizing Opportunities (CEPEO) and Oxford Brookes Business School studied data from 238,898 pupils’ GCSE performance to see whether they could accurately predict their subsequent A-level results.<\/p>\n

For the first time, they found that even by removing any opportunity for bias\u2014and running additional checks on pupils’ gender, ethnicity and socioeconomic status\u2014they could only predict one in four pupils’ best three A-levels correctly.
\nThe researchers say the disruption COVID-19 has brought on formal examinations this year\u2014with pupils instead assigned calculated grades by their teachers, which are then moderated by exam boards\u2014highlights a wider problem with the general<\/a> UK system.
\nThe paper also shows that high-achieving comprehensive school pupils are more likely to be under-predicted compared to their grammar and private school counterparts.
\nAmong high achievers, where under-prediction is most common, the team found 23% of comprehensive school pupils were underpredicted by two or more grades compared to just 11% of grammar and private school pupils.
\nOne of the paper’s authors, and CEPEO Director, Professor Lindsey Macmillan (UCL Institute of Education), said: “This research raises the question of why we use predicted grades at such a crucial part of our education system. This isn’t teachers’ fault\u2014it’s a near-impossible task. Most worryingly there are implications for equity, as pupils in comprehensives are harder to predict. Our work shows that these pupils have more noisy trajectories from GCSE to A-level. If you’re a straight-A student at a grammar or private school, you’re more likely to continue that to A-levels. But this research is telling us there’s a lot more movement around the grades between the two exam levels for comprehensive students.”
\nTeacher predictions of pupil grades are a fundamental feature of the English education system, forming the basis of students’ university app<\/a>lications and determining the wider life chances of pupils in post-secondary education.<\/p>\n

Research by one of the authors, CEPEO Deputy Director Dr. Gill Wyness (UCL Institute of Education), earlier this year showed that only 16% of university applicants were correctly predicted across their best three A-levels, when comparing teachers’ predictions to students’ actual grades. Of the rest, 75% were overpredicted and just 8% underpredicted.
\nThe same study found that the grades of high-achieving students from low socio-economic backgrounds were more likely to be underpredicted.
\nFor this working paper, the researchers used statistical and machine learning approaches to analyze detailed administrative data on prior achievement as well as demographic and school-level information.
\nThey found their modeling only made modest improvements to the accuracy of teacher predictions, increasing the success rate from one in five to one in four pupils’ grades correctly predicted.
\nPredictions were improved by including data on ‘related’ GCSEs\u2014those A-level subjects that have an equivalent GCSE\u2014showing that exam subjects themselves need to be taken into account alongside student achievement and school type.
\nMaths was easier to predict among high achievers than other subjects such as history and chemistry, but for average and low achievers, the opposite was true.
\nEnglish Literature was most accurately predicted across all achievement levels, while Law predictions were the least accurate.
\nFor subjects without related GCSEs, the task was even more challenging, with lower prediction rates across the board.
\nThe researchers say only moving towards a post-qualification applications and admissions (PQA) system would help remove potential inequalities.
\nCo-author Dr. Wyness said: “We definitely don’t think teacher predictions should be replaced by computer predictions\u2014this research serves to highlight the difficulty faced by teachers, and provides further evidence that the UK’s predicted grades system should be re-examined.”
\nThe research was based on National Pupil Database records for a cohort of state and privately educated pupils who took their A-levels in 2008.<\/p>\n

\n<\/hr>\n
\n<\/hr>\n
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More information:<\/strong>
\n Grade Expectations: How well can we predict future grades based on past performance? econpapers.repec.org\/paper\/uclcepeow\/20-14.htm<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Citation<\/strong>:
\n Predicting A-level grades accurately ‘near-impossible task’ (2020, August 12)
\n retrieved 12 August 2020
\n from https:\/\/phys.org\/news<\/a>\/2020-08-a-level-grades-accurately-near-impossible-task.html<\/p>\n

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“#Predicting A-level grades accurately ‘near-impossible task’” Predicting A-level grades is a “near-impossible task,” and the system needs to be overhauled to reduce inaccuracies that can lead to unfair disadvantages for some students, says new research from the UCL Institute of Education. For the working paper published today, academics from UCL Center for Education Policy &…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[10574,52360],"class_list":["post-45291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sciencee","tag-education","tag-predicting-a-level-grades-accurately-near-impossible-task"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45291","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45291"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45291\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45291"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45291"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}