{"id":454157,"date":"2022-05-28T14:14:00","date_gmt":"2022-05-28T11:14:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/confused-about-where-fed-policy-is-headed-dont-worry-professional-forecasters-are-too\/"},"modified":"2022-05-28T14:14:00","modified_gmt":"2022-05-28T11:14:00","slug":"confused-about-where-fed-policy-is-headed-dont-worry-professional-forecasters-are-too","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/confused-about-where-fed-policy-is-headed-dont-worry-professional-forecasters-are-too\/","title":{"rendered":"#: Confused about where Fed policy is headed? Don\u2019t worry. Professional forecasters are, too."},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3ab7980e25e\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3ab7980e25e\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/confused-about-where-fed-policy-is-headed-dont-worry-professional-forecasters-are-too\/#%E2%80%9C_Confused_about_where_Fed_policy_is_headed_Dont_worry_Professional_forecasters_are_too%E2%80%9D\" >&#8220;: Confused about where Fed policy is headed? Don\u2019t worry. Professional forecasters are, too.&#8221;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/confused-about-where-fed-policy-is-headed-dont-worry-professional-forecasters-are-too\/#Business_economists_are_split_where_benchmark_rate_will_be_at_the_end_of_next_year_a_new_NABE_survey_shows\" >Business economists are split where benchmark rate will be at the end of next year, a new NABE survey shows<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/confused-about-where-fed-policy-is-headed-dont-worry-professional-forecasters-are-too\/#Greg_Robb\" >Greg Robb<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9C_Confused_about_where_Fed_policy_is_headed_Dont_worry_Professional_forecasters_are_too%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>&#8220;: Confused about where Fed policy is headed? Don\u2019t worry. Professional forecasters are, too.&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Business_economists_are_split_where_benchmark_rate_will_be_at_the_end_of_next_year_a_new_NABE_survey_shows\"><\/span>\n  Business economists are split where benchmark rate will be at the end of next year, a new NABE survey shows<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div class=\"article__side\">\n<div class=\"container--sticky not-active\">\n<div id=\"cx-next\" data-nosnippet>\n              <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0000894474\" role=\"document\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-layout=\"\n                inline\" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetArticleReader\n              \n              inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetArticleReader\n              article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"media-object-article-reader\">\n<div class=\"audioplayer\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0000894474\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"Listen to Article\" tabindex=\"-1\" id=\"articlereader\" data-show-title=\"false\" data-theme=\"wsj-article-reader\" data-show-header=\"false\" data-show-subscribe=\"false\" data-ads-enabled=\"true\" data-save-publication=\"false\">\n        <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       If you\u2019re confused where interest rates are going to end up in 2023, you\u2019re not alone. A new survey from the National Association for Business Economics shows a wide split among their members on whether rates will go higher or lower.<\/p>\n<p> Earlier this month, the Fed raised its benchmark rate by a half a percentage point to  0.75%-1%. It was the largest increase since 2000. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is prepared to raise its policy rate by the same amount in June and July, brining the federal funds rate up to a 1.75%-to-2% rate by August.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n       <strong>Don\u2019t miss:<\/strong> Even a recession won\u2019t cure inflation, says former Obama economic adviser Jason Furman <\/p>\n<p>Asked where the Fed\u2019s benchmark policy rate will be by the end of 2023, the lowest five <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">media<\/a>n forecasts predicted the Fed will reverse course and lower its policy rate to just under 1%.<\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetPullQuote\n            inline\n    scope-web|mobileapps\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetPullQuote\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"wsj-article-pullquote article__inset__pullquote \">\n<p class=\"pullquote-content article__inset__pullquote__quote\">\n        <span class=\"l-qt article__inset__pullquote__mark--left\">\u201c<\/span> Just over a third of the economists surveyed by NABE said they think inflation peaked in the first quarter. <span class=\"r-qt article__inset__pullquote__mark--right\">\u201d<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       The highest five median forecasts, in contrast, call for the Fed to continue to push up its policy rate to just under 4%.<\/p>\n<p> The full sample median expected the Fed\u2019s policy rate to get to 3% by the end of next year. <\/p>\n<p>The survey of 53 professional forecasters was conducted in early May.<\/p>\n<p>The yield on the 10-year Treasury note<br \/>\n        TMUBMUSD10Y,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.000%\" channel=\"\" class=\"\">2.745%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       is expected to rise to 3.25% over the same period. <\/p>\n<p>One thing that the economists agreed on: The Fed won\u2019t get inflation back to its 2% target until 2024 or later, the survey showed.<\/p>\n<p>The good <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a> is that a large majority of economists think inflation will peak this year. Just over a third of the economists, in fact, think inflation peaked in the first quarter.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cx-membership-tile\"><\/div>\n<p><strong>See:<\/strong> Fed will succeed in bringing inflation down over next couple of years, Bernanke says<\/p>\n<p>There was a lot of discussion about a possible recession in the survey. More than half the economists think there is at least a 25% probability of a recession over the next year.<\/p>\n<p>Fed policy was seen as the greatest downside risk to the U.S. economy, followed closely by a global growth slowdown due to Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>More than 75% of the economists said the risks to economic growth through this year are weighted to the downside.<\/p>\n<p>The economists surveyed trimmed their annual GDP forecast to 1.8%, down from their previous projection, in February, of a 2.9% annual growth rate. The economy is forecast to rebound to a 2.3% growth rate in 2023.<\/p>\n<p>The unemployment rate was expected to hold steady at 3.6% over the next 18 months.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>    <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author mobile-scrim hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"Greg Robb\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"bio\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/topics\/journalists\/greg-robb\",\"text\":\"Biography\"},{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"twitter\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/grobb2000\",\"text\":\"@grobb2000\"},{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"email\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/mailto:grobb@marketwatch.com\",\"text\":\"grobb@marketwatch.com\"}]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Greg_Robb\"><\/span>Greg Robb<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><ufc-follow-author-widget product=\"marketwatch\" author-id=\"66_MW\" author-name=\"Greg Robb\" signin-url=\"https:\/\/accounts.marketwatch.com\/login?target=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Fstory%2Fconfused-about-where-fed-policy-is-headed-dont-worry-professional-forecasters-are-too-11653331097%3Frss%3D1%26siteid%3Drss\" panda-api=\"https:\/\/follow-api.marketwatch.com\"><\/ufc-follow-author-widget><\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B20C05575-04D4-B545-7DA6-0AD998B618C4%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;: Confused about where Fed policy is headed? Don\u2019t worry. Professional forecasters are, too.&#8221; Business economists are split where benchmark rate will be at the end of next year, a new NABE survey shows If you\u2019re confused where interest rates are going to end up in 2023, you\u2019re not alone. A new survey from the&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":454158,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-549807\/social","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-454157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/454157","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=454157"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/454157\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/454158"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=454157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=454157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=454157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}