{"id":458592,"date":"2022-06-06T23:30:00","date_gmt":"2022-06-06T20:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/traders-think-bitcoin-bottomed-but-on-chain-metrics-point-to-one-more-capitulation-event\/"},"modified":"2022-06-06T23:30:00","modified_gmt":"2022-06-06T20:30:00","slug":"traders-think-bitcoin-bottomed-but-on-chain-metrics-point-to-one-more-capitulation-event","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/traders-think-bitcoin-bottomed-but-on-chain-metrics-point-to-one-more-capitulation-event\/","title":{"rendered":"# Traders think Bitcoin bottomed, but on-chain metrics point to one more capitulation event"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a413072baccc\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a413072baccc\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/traders-think-bitcoin-bottomed-but-on-chain-metrics-point-to-one-more-capitulation-event\/#%E2%80%9D_Traders_think_Bitcoin_bottomed_but_on-chain_metrics_point_to_one_more_capitulation_event_%E2%80%9C\" >&#8221; Traders think Bitcoin bottomed, but on-chain metrics point to one more capitulation event &#8220;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/traders-think-bitcoin-bottomed-but-on-chain-metrics-point-to-one-more-capitulation-event\/#The_market_is_in_search_of_the_bottom\" >The market is in search of the bottom<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/traders-think-bitcoin-bottomed-but-on-chain-metrics-point-to-one-more-capitulation-event\/#Short_term_holder_and_miner_capitulation\" >Short term holder and miner capitulation<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9D_Traders_think_Bitcoin_bottomed_but_on-chain_metrics_point_to_one_more_capitulation_event_%E2%80%9C\"><\/span>&#8221; Traders think Bitcoin bottomed, but on-chain metrics point to one more capitulation event &#8220;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-2a0745c6>The bull market euphoria that carried prices to new highs throughout 2021 has given way to bear market doldrums for any Bitcoin (BTC) buyer who made a purchase since Jan. 1, 2021. Data from Glassnode shows these buyers &#8220;are now underwater&#8221; and the market is gearing up for a final capitulation event.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-06\/c40ea13e-1e3f-47a3-ae04-ea4b99910f89.jpg\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\">Bitcoin net unrealized profit\/loss. Source: Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>As seen in the graphic above, the NUPL, a metric\u00a0which is a measure of the overall unrealized profit and loss of the network as a proportion of the market cap, indicates that \u201cless than 25% of the market cap is held in profit,\u201d which \u201cresembles a market structure equivalent to pre-capitulation phases in previous bear markets.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Based on previous capitulation events, if a similar move were to occur at the current levels, the price of Bitcoin could drop into a price range of $20,560 to $25,700 in a \u201cfull-scale capitulation scenario.\u201d <\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_market_is_in_search_of_the_bottom\"><\/span>The market is in search of the bottom<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>With the crypto market clearly trading in bear market territory, the question on everyone\u2019s mind is \u201cwhere is the bottom?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>One metric that can help provide some possible guidance is the Mayer Multiple, an oscillator that tracks the ratio between price and the 200-day moving average. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-06\/574951c2-7203-4be9-90e3-00ad72e5a486.jpg\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Mayer Multiple model for Bitcoin. Source: Glassnode<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In previous bear markets, \u201coversold or undervalued conditions have coincided with the Mayer Multiple falling in the range of 0.6-0.8\u201d according to Glassnode, and that is precisely the range where Bitcoin now finds itself. <\/p>\n<p>Based on the price action from previous bear markets, the recent trading range of Bitcoin between $25,200 and $33,700 lines up with the B phase of the previous bear market cycles and could mark the low of BTC in the current cycle. <\/p>\n<p>The Bitcoin realized price model also offers insight into what a potential price bottom for Bitcoin could be, with the current reading provided by the Bitcoin <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lookintobitcoin.com\/charts\/realized-price\/\">data<\/a> provider LookIntoBitcoin suggesting the realized price for BTC is $23,601 as of June 5.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-06\/c103f7d6-0753-4db1-bc1d-9e1f2b5cd2de.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin realized price. Source: LookIntoBitcoin<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Combining these two metrics suggests that the low for BTC could occur in the $23,600 to $25,200 range. <\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Related: <\/em><\/strong><strong><em>Amid crypto bear market, institutional investors scoop up Bitcoin: CoinShares<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Short_term_holder_and_miner_capitulation\"><\/span>Short term holder and miner capitulation<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Selling in the current market conditions has largely been dominated by short-term hodlers, similar to the behavior that was seen during the two previous extended bear markets where long-term holders held more than 90% of the profit in the market. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-06\/a9fa79ff-9f28-49ff-b76f-51168936c6a5.jpg\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Long-term Bitcoin holders share from supply in profit. Source: Glassnode<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The recent drop below $30,000 for Bitcoin saw the percentage of supply in profit spike above 90% for the long-term holder cohort, suggesting short-term holders have \u201cessentially reached a near-peak pain threshold.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>According to glassnode, miners have also been net sellers in recent months as the decline in BTC has hampered the profitability for miners resulting in \u201can aggregate miner balance reduction of between 5k and 8k BTC per month.\u201d <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-06\/fc1cf209-6dc4-4970-8b74-740c39c09062.jpg\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin miner net position change. Source: Glassnode<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Should the price of BTC continue to decline from here, the potential for an increase in miner capitulation is not out of the question, as demonstrated in the past by the Puell Multiple, which is the ratio of the daily issuance value of bitcoin to the 365-day moving average of this value.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-06\/a2c1b35f-0aae-4c75-8484-166adffc861f.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Puell multiple vs. BTC price. Source: LookIntoBitcoin<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Historical data shows that the metric has declined into the sub-0.5 zone during the late stages of previous bear markets, which has yet to occur during the current cycle. Based on the current market conditions, a BTC price decline of an additional 10% could lead to a final miner capitulation event that would resemble the price decline and selling seen at the hight of previous bear markets.<\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n<\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/traders-think-bitcoin-bottomed-but-on-chain-metrics-point-to-one-more-capitulation-event\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8221; Traders think Bitcoin bottomed, but on-chain metrics point to one more capitulation event &#8220; The bull market euphoria that carried prices to new highs throughout 2021 has given way to bear market doldrums for any Bitcoin (BTC) buyer who made a purchase since Jan. 1, 2021. Data from Glassnode shows these buyers &#8220;are now&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":458593,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/1200_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjItMDYvMmMwMzJkYTEtZjlmZS00ZDVjLTg5NjAtNTkxM2I5MzYxNTE3LmpwZw==.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74862,74989,74937,74982,74863,74860,74939,75042,73785],"class_list":["post-458592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-mining","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc-markets","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-cryptocurrency-exchange","tag-market-analysis","tag-mining","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/458592","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=458592"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/458592\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/458593"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=458592"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=458592"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=458592"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}