{"id":462930,"date":"2022-06-14T23:03:05","date_gmt":"2022-06-14T20:03:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/wall-streets-favorite-recession-indicator-is-flashing-red\/"},"modified":"2022-06-14T23:03:05","modified_gmt":"2022-06-14T20:03:05","slug":"wall-streets-favorite-recession-indicator-is-flashing-red","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wall-streets-favorite-recession-indicator-is-flashing-red\/","title":{"rendered":"#Wall Street&#8217;s favorite recession indicator is flashing red"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2787ad436ac\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2787ad436ac\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wall-streets-favorite-recession-indicator-is-flashing-red\/#%E2%80%9CWall_Streets_favorite_recession_indicator_is_flashing_red%E2%80%9D\" >&#8220;Wall Street&#8217;s favorite recession indicator is flashing red&#8221;<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9CWall_Streets_favorite_recession_indicator_is_flashing_red%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>&#8220;Wall Street&#8217;s favorite recession indicator is flashing red&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/06\/AP22165588076134-e1655236240822.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<aside class=\"single__inline-module alignleft\">\n<\/aside>\n<p>A closely watched recession predictor in the bond market just flashed red, spurring fresh concern that the\u00a0US economy is on track for a downturn\u00a0this year as a result of the Federal Reserve\u2019s war on inflation.<\/p>\n<p>The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted this week for the first time since April on fears that the Federal Reserve\u2019s aggressive <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>roach to tackling the hottest inflation in four decades could lead to a sustained slowdown in growth. The phenomenon \u2013 which is rare \u2013 has been a historically accurate predictor of recessions.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Yields on the 2-year Treasury note climbed as high as 3.431% during morning trading on Tuesday, rising above those on 30-year bonds, which fell to about 3.277%. The movement reflects \u201cfears of a Fed policy error and an impending recession,\u201d according to Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide.<\/p>\n<p>Yield curve inversions are viewed as a good recession predictor because it suggests that investors believe \u2013 with the interest rate on long-term bonds lower than the rate on short-term bonds \u2013 economic growth is slowing. Every recession in the past 60 years was preceded by an inverted yield curve, according to\u00a0<u><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.frbsf.org\/economic-research\/publications\/economic-letter\/2018\/march\/economic-forecasts-with-yield-curve\/\">research<\/a><\/u>\u00a0from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. <\/p>\n<p>There are growing fears on Wall Street that the US central bank will trigger a downturn as it raises interest rates at the fastest pace in two decades following a\u00a0scorching-hot Labor Department report\u00a0released last week that showed the consumer price index rose 8.6% in May from a year ago, faster than expected. It marks the fastest pace of inflation since December 1981.<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0dismal inflation report\u00a0unnerved investors and prompted traders to revise their expectations for Fed rate hikes this year. Wall Street banks Barclays and Jeffries are now forecasting a 75-basis point hike \u2013 the first since 1994 \u2013 at the conclusion of the Fed\u2019s policy-setting meeting on Wednesday. A majority of traders \u2013 about 96% \u2013 have also penciled in a mega-sized rate increase this month, according to the CME Group\u2019s FedWatch tool, which tracks trading.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0\u201cThe US central bank now has good reason to surprise markets by hiking more aggressively than expected in June,\u201d the Barclays strategists wrote in a note Friday. \u201cWe realize it is a close call and that it could play out in either June or July. But we are changing our forecast to call for a 75-basis point hike on June 15.\u201d\n                        <\/p><\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2022\/06\/14\/wall-streets-favorite-recession-indicator-is-flashing-red\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;Wall Street&#8217;s favorite recession indicator is flashing red&#8221; A closely watched recession predictor in the bond market just flashed red, spurring fresh concern that the\u00a0US economy is on track for a downturn\u00a0this year as a result of the Federal Reserve\u2019s war on inflation. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted this week&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":462931,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/06\/AP22165588076134-e1655236240822.jpg?quality=75&strip=all&w=1024","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[130298,74336,70551,91261,70360],"class_list":["post-462930","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-6-14-22","tag-bonds","tag-inflation","tag-recession","tag-wall-street"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/462930","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=462930"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/462930\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/462931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=462930"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=462930"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=462930"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}