{"id":468230,"date":"2022-06-27T23:40:00","date_gmt":"2022-06-27T20:40:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/final-capitulation-5-reasons-why-bitcoin-could-bottom-at-10000\/"},"modified":"2022-06-27T23:40:00","modified_gmt":"2022-06-27T20:40:00","slug":"final-capitulation-5-reasons-why-bitcoin-could-bottom-at-10000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/final-capitulation-5-reasons-why-bitcoin-could-bottom-at-10000\/","title":{"rendered":"# Final Capitulation \u2014 5 reasons why Bitcoin could bottom at $10,000"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2f16e0f0fe5\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2f16e0f0fe5\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/final-capitulation-5-reasons-why-bitcoin-could-bottom-at-10000\/#%E2%80%9D_Final_Capitulation_%E2%80%94_5_reasons_why_Bitcoin_could_bottom_at_10000_%E2%80%9C\" >&#8221; Final Capitulation \u2014 5 reasons why Bitcoin could bottom at $10,000 &#8220;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/final-capitulation-5-reasons-why-bitcoin-could-bottom-at-10000\/#Oversold_conditions_prevail\" >Oversold conditions prevail<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/final-capitulation-5-reasons-why-bitcoin-could-bottom-at-10000\/#The_final_capitualation\" >The final capitualation<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9D_Final_Capitulation_%E2%80%94_5_reasons_why_Bitcoin_could_bottom_at_10000_%E2%80%9C\"><\/span>&#8221; Final Capitulation \u2014 5 reasons why Bitcoin could bottom at $10,000 &#8220;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-2a0745c6>Bear markets have historically been challenging to navigate for traders and the conventional set of &#8220;reliable&#8221; indicators that determine good entry points are unable to predict how long a crypto winter might last.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s (BTC)\u00a0recent recovery back above the psychologically important price level of $20,000 was a sign to many traders that the bottom was in, but a deeper dive into the data suggests that the short-term relief rally might not be enough proof of a macro-level trend change.<\/p>\n<p>Evidence pointing to the need for caution was provided in a recent report by cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital, which suggested that \u201cwe need to see a little more pain before we have conviction that a market bottom is in.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Despite the pain that has already been felt since Bitcoin\u2019s\u00a0price topped in November, a comparison between its pullback since then and the 2017 market top points to the possibility of further decline in the short-term. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-06\/c94f068b-6a5c-489b-bc71-d648b28915fc.jpg\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>BTC\/USD price normalized since all-time high (Current vs. 2017 peak) source: Delphi Digital<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>During previous bear markets, the price of BTC fell by roughly 85% from its top to the eventual bottom. According to Delphi Digital, if history were to repeat itself in the current environment it would translate into \u201ca low just above $10,000 and another 50% drawdown for current levels.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>The outlook for Ether (ETH) is even direr as the previous bear market saw its price decline by 95% from peak to trough. Should that same scenario play out this time around, the price of Ether could drop as low as $300. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-06\/79040392-370c-4e4b-8406-b3d0c01e0e20.jpg\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>ETH\/USD price percent drawdown (current vs. prior ATH). Source: Delphi Digital<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Delphi Digital said, <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cThe risk of reliving a similar crash is higher than most people are probably discounting, especially if BTC fails to hold support in the $14K\u201316K range.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Oversold_conditions_prevail\"><\/span>Oversold conditions prevail<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>For traders looking for where the bottom is in the current market, data shows that \u201cprevious major market bottoms coincided with extreme oversold conditions.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As shown in the weekly chart below, BTC\u2019s 14-week RSI recently fell below 30 for the third time in its history, with the two previous occurrences coming near a market bottom. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-06\/ce68f761-356e-4336-be5b-45a229512bab.jpg\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>BTC\/USD weekly price vs. 14-week RSI. Source: Delphi Digital<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>While some may take this as a sign that now is a good time to reenter the market, Delphi Digital offered a word of caution for those expecting a \u201cV-shaped\u201d recovery, noting that \u201cIn the prior two instances, BTC traded in a choppy sideways range for several months before finally staging a strong recovery.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>A view of the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) also raises question on whether the historical support level will hold again.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-06\/dc8997f9-99cf-4da6-8486-306049dcaab0.jpg\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>BTC\/USD price vs. 200-week SMA and 14-week RSI. Source: Delphi Digital<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Bitcoin recently broke below its 200-week SMA for the first time since March 2020. Historically speaking, BTC price has only traded below this level for a few weeks during the previous bear markets, which points to the possibility that a bottom could soon be found. <\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Related: <\/em><\/strong><strong><em>Bitcoin price dips under $21K while exchanges see record outflow trend<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_final_capitualation\"><\/span>The final capitualation<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>What the market is really looking for right now is the final capitulation that has historically marked the end of a bear market and the start of the next cycle. <\/p>\n<p>While the sentiment in the market is now at its lowest point since the COVID-19 crash of March 2020, it hasn\u2019t quite reached the depths of despair that were seen in 2018. <\/p>\n<p>According to Delphi Digital:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cWe may need to see a bit more pain before sentiment really bottoms out.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-06\/46ba7f32-2430-4b58-9029-c81f6c427a75.jpg\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index. Source: Alternative<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The weakness in the crypto market has been <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>arent since the end of 2021, but the real driving force behind the market crumbling\u00a0include run-away inflation and rising interest rates. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-06\/38512e1a-9a8c-405b-a57e-081112f7f6f5.jpg\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>BTC\/USD vs. Fed funds rate vs. Fed balance sheet. Source: Delphi Digital<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Rising interest rates tend to be followed by market corrections, and given that the Federal Reserve intends to stay the course of hiking rates, Bitcoin and other risk-off assets are likely to correct further.<\/p>\n<p>One final metric that suggests that a final capitulation event needs to occur is the percentage of BTC supply in profit, which hit a low of 40% during previous bear markets. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-06\/8fae435b-65d2-49cd-a4b3-40edbc1e13f6.jpg\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>BTC\/USD price vs. percentage of supply in profit. Source: Delphi Digital<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>This metric is currently at 54.9%,\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/studio.glassnode.com\/metrics?a=BTC&amp;category=&amp;m=supply.ProfitRelative&amp;s=1603737572&amp;u=1656288000&amp;zoom=\">according<\/a> to data from Glassnode, which adds credence to the perspective that the market could still experience another leg down before the real bottom is in. <\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n<\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. 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Bitcoin\u2019s (BTC)\u00a0recent recovery back above the psychologically important price&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":468231,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/1200_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjItMDYvYTI0ZmRkN2EtYWEyNy00OGYzLWE5MmQtMGU2MmRlMjZjYjhhLmpwZw==.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74862,74937,74863,82402,74891,74938,79109,70551,70552,73785],"class_list":["post-468230","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-ether-price","tag-ethereum","tag-ethereum-price","tag-interest-rate","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/468230","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=468230"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/468230\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/468231"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=468230"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=468230"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=468230"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}