{"id":472127,"date":"2022-07-09T01:14:54","date_gmt":"2022-07-08T22:14:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/3-ways-next-gen-academics-can-avoid-an-unnecessary-ai-winter\/"},"modified":"2022-07-09T01:14:54","modified_gmt":"2022-07-08T22:14:54","slug":"3-ways-next-gen-academics-can-avoid-an-unnecessary-ai-winter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/3-ways-next-gen-academics-can-avoid-an-unnecessary-ai-winter\/","title":{"rendered":"#3 ways next-gen academics can avoid an unnecessary AI winter"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_89 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6aeef5c76812f\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6aeef5c76812f\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/3-ways-next-gen-academics-can-avoid-an-unnecessary-ai-winter\/#%E2%80%9C3_ways_next-gen_academics_can_avoid_an_unnecessary_AI_winter%E2%80%9D\" >&#8220;3 ways next-gen academics can avoid an unnecessary AI winter&#8221;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/3-ways-next-gen-academics-can-avoid-an-unnecessary-ai-winter\/#Greetings_humanoids\" >Greetings, humanoids<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/3-ways-next-gen-academics-can-avoid-an-unnecessary-ai-winter\/#Black_box_alchemy\" >Black box alchemy<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/3-ways-next-gen-academics-can-avoid-an-unnecessary-ai-winter\/#Gaydar\" >Gaydar<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/3-ways-next-gen-academics-can-avoid-an-unnecessary-ai-winter\/#Three_solutions\" >Three solutions<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9C3_ways_next-gen_academics_can_avoid_an_unnecessary_AI_winter%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>&#8220;3 ways next-gen academics can avoid an unnecessary AI winter&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div id=\"article-main-content\">\n                            There are two realities when it comes to artificial intelligence. In one, the future\u2019s\u00a0so bright you need to put on welding goggles just to glance at it. AI is a backbone <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/technology\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"4\" title=\"Technology\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">technology<\/a> that\u2019s just as necessary for global human operations as electricity and the internet. But in the other reality, winter is coming.<\/p>\n<p>An \u201cAI winter,\u201d is a period in which nothing can grow. That means nobody\u2019s hiring, nobody\u2019s acquiring, and nobody\u2019s funding. But this impending barren season is special, it won\u2019t affect the entire industry.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, most of the experts won\u2019t even notice it. Google, OpenAI, DeepMind, Nvidia, Meta, IBM, and any university doing legitimate research have nothing to worry about. Startups with a clear, useful purpose will be fine \u2014 typical market issues notwithstanding.<\/p>\n<div class=\"inarticle-wrapper neural channel-cta hs-embed-tnw\">\n<div id=\"hs-embed-tnw\" class=\"channel-cta-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"channel-cta-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/uploads.tnw\/uploads\/neural-newsletter_header-1.gif\"\/><\/div>\n<p><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thenextweb.com\/news\/src=\" https:=\"\"\/><\/noscript><\/p>\n<div class=\"channel-cta-input\">\n<h2 class=\"channel-cta-title\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Greetings_humanoids\"><\/span>Greetings, humanoids<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"channel-cta-tagline\">Subscribe to our <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a>letter now for a weekly recap of our favorite AI stories in your inbox.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The only people who need to be concerned about the coming chill are those trying to do what we\u2019re going to refer to as \u201cblack box alchemy.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Black_box_alchemy\"><\/span>Black box alchemy<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>I shudder to call any AI endeavor \u201calchemy,\u201d because at least the idea of turning one metal into another has <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rsc.org\/periodic-table\/alchemy\/what-is-alchemy\">some scientific merit<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m talking about the wildly popular research vein wherein researchers build cr<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>y little prediction models and then make up fake problems for the AI to be better at solving than humans.<\/p>\n<p>When you write it all out in one sentence, it sounds like it should be obvious that it\u2019s a grift. But I\u2019m here to tell you that black box alchemy represents a huge portion of academic research right now, and that\u2019s a bad thing.<\/p>\n<p>Black box alchemy is what happens when AI researchers take something an AI is good at \u2014 such as returning relevant results when you search for something on Google \u2014 and try to use the same principles to do something that\u2019s impossible. Since the AI can\u2019t explain why it comes to the results it does (because the work happens in a black box which we can\u2019t see inside) the researchers pretend they\u2019re doing <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/sciencee\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"5\" title=\"Science\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">science<\/a> without having to show any work.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s a scam that plays out in myriad paradigms ranging from predictive policing and recidivism algorithms all the way to bullshit pop facial recognition systems alleged to detect everything from a person\u2019s politics to whether they\u2019re likely to become a terrorist.<\/p>\n<p>The part that cannot be stressed enough is that this particular scam is being perpetuated throughout academia. It doesn\u2019t matter if you\u2019re planning to attend a community college or Stanford, black box alchemy is everywhere.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s how the scam works: researchers come up with a scheme that allows them to develop an AI model that is \u201cmore accurate\u201d at a given task than humans are.<\/p>\n<p>This is, quite literally, the hardest part. You can\u2019t pick a simple task, such as looking at images and deciding whether there\u2019s a cat or a dog in them. Humans will wreck the AI at this task 100 out of 100 times. We\u2019re really good at telling cats from dogs.<\/p>\n<p>And you can\u2019t pick a task that\u2019s too complicated. For example, there\u2019s no sense in training a prediction model to determine which 1930s patents would be most relevant to modern thermodynamics applications. The number of humans that could win at that <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/game\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" title=\"Game\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">game<\/a> is too small to matter.<\/p>\n<p>You have to pick a task that the average person thinks can be observed, measured, and reported on via the scientific method, but that actually can\u2019t.<\/p>\n<p>Once you\u2019ve done that, the rest is easy.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Gaydar\"><\/span>Gaydar<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>My favorite example of black box alchemy is the Stanford Gaydar paper. It\u2019s a masterpiece in bullshit AI.<\/p>\n<p>Researchers trained a rudimentary computer vision system on a database of human faces. The faces were labeled with self-reported tags indicating whether the individual pictured identified as gay or straight.<\/p>\n<p>Over time, they were able to reach superhuman levels of accuracy. According to the researchers, the AI was better at telling which faces were gay than humans were, and nobody knows why.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s the truth: no human can tell if another human is gay. We can guess. Sometimes we might guess right, other times we might guess wrong. This isn\u2019t science.<\/p>\n<p>Science requires observation and measurement. If there\u2019s nothing to observe or measure, we cannot do science.<\/p>\n<p>Gayness is not a ground truth. There\u2019s no scientific measurement for gayness.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s what I mean: are you gay if you experience same-sex attraction or only if you act on it? Can you be a gay virgin? Can you have a queer experience and remain straight? How many gay thoughts does it take to qualify you as gay, and who gets to decide that?<\/p>\n<p>The simple reality is that human sexuality isn\u2019t a point you can plot on a chart. Nobody can determine whether someone else is gay. Humans have the right to stay in closets, deny their own experiential sexuality, and decide how much \u201cgayness\u201d or \u201cstraightness\u201d they need in their own lives to determine their own labels.<\/p>\n<p>There is no scientific test for gay. And that means the Stanford team can\u2019t train an AI to detect gayness; it can only train an AI to try and beat humans in a discrimination game that has no positive real-world use case.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Three_solutions\"><\/span>Three solutions<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The Stanford gaydar paper is just one of thousands of examples of black box alchemy that\u2019s out there. Nobody should be surprised that this line of research is so popular, it\u2019s the low-hanging fruit of ML research.<\/p>\n<p>Twenty years ago, the number of high school graduates interested in machine learning was a drop in the bucket compared to how many teens are heading off to university to get a degree in AI this year.<\/p>\n<p>And that\u2019s both good and bad. The good thing is that there are more brilliant AI\/ML researchers in the world today than ever \u2014 and that number is just going to keep growing.<\/p>\n<p>The bad thing is that every AI classroom on the planet is littered with students who don\u2019t understand the difference between a Magic 8-Ball and a prediction model \u2014 and there\u2019s even less who understand why the former\u2019s more useful for predicting human outcomes.<\/p>\n<p>And that brings us to the three things every student, researcher, professor, and AI developer can do to make the entire field of AI\/ML better for everyone.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Don\u2019t do black box alchemy. The first question you should ask before beginning any AI project related to prediction is: will this affect human outcomes? If the only science you can use to measure your project\u2019s efficacy is to compare it to human accuracy, there\u2019s a good chance you\u2019re not doing great work.<\/li>\n<li>Don\u2019t create new models with the sole purpose of surpassing the benchmarks set by previous models just because you can\u2019t afford to curate useful databases.<\/li>\n<li>Don\u2019t train models on data you can\u2019t guarantee to be accurate and diverse.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>I\u2019d like to just end this article with those three tidbits of advice like some kind of smug mic drop, but it\u2019s not that kind of moment.<\/p>\n<p>The fact of the matter is that a huge portion of students are likely to struggle to do anything novel in the field of AI\/ML that doesn\u2019t involve breaking all three of those rules. And that\u2019s because black box alchemy is easy, building bespoke databases is damn near impossible for anyone without big tech\u2019s resources, and only a handful of universities and companies can afford to train large-parameter models.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019re stuck in a place where the vast majority of students and would-be developers don\u2019t have access to the resources necessary to go beyond trying to find \u201ccool\u201d ways to use open-source algorithms.<\/p>\n<p>The only way to power through this era and into a more productive one, is for the next generation of developers to rebuke the current trends and carve a path away from the status quo \u2014 just like the current crop of pioneering AI developers did in their day.\n                        <\/p><\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more like this article, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/technology\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Technology category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thenextweb.com\/news\/3-ways-next-gen-academics-can-avoid-unnecessary-ai-winter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;3 ways next-gen academics can avoid an unnecessary AI winter&#8221; There are two realities when it comes to artificial intelligence. In one, the future\u2019s\u00a0so bright you need to put on welding goggles just to glance at it. AI is a backbone technology that\u2019s just as necessary for global human operations as electricity and the internet&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":472128,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/img-cdn.tnwcdn.com\/image\/neural?filter_last=1&fit=1280,640&url=https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2022\/07\/dumpsterfire.jpg&signature=32c4e39c72da01df008b5e20dc7bde49","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-472127","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technology"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/472127","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=472127"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/472127\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/472128"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=472127"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=472127"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=472127"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}