{"id":477840,"date":"2022-07-26T00:35:27","date_gmt":"2022-07-25T21:35:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/3-signs-bitcoin-price-is-forming-a-potential-macro-bottom\/"},"modified":"2022-07-26T00:35:27","modified_gmt":"2022-07-25T21:35:27","slug":"3-signs-bitcoin-price-is-forming-a-potential-macro-bottom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/3-signs-bitcoin-price-is-forming-a-potential-macro-bottom\/","title":{"rendered":"# 3 signs Bitcoin price is forming a potential &#8216;macro bottom&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a33b0bb0f23b\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a33b0bb0f23b\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/3-signs-bitcoin-price-is-forming-a-potential-macro-bottom\/#%E2%80%9D_3_signs_Bitcoin_price_is_forming_a_potential_%E2%80%98macro_bottom_%E2%80%9C\" >&#8221; 3 signs Bitcoin price is forming a potential &#8216;macro bottom&#8217; &#8220;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/3-signs-bitcoin-price-is-forming-a-potential-macro-bottom\/#That_big_%E2%80%9Coversold%E2%80%9D_bounce\" >That big &#8220;oversold&#8221; bounce<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/3-signs-bitcoin-price-is-forming-a-potential-macro-bottom\/#Bitcoin_NUPL_jumps_above_zero\" >Bitcoin NUPL jumps above zero<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/3-signs-bitcoin-price-is-forming-a-potential-macro-bottom\/#Mining_profitability\" >Mining profitability<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9D_3_signs_Bitcoin_price_is_forming_a_potential_%E2%80%98macro_bottom_%E2%80%9C\"><\/span>&#8221; 3 signs Bitcoin price is forming a potential &#8216;macro bottom&#8217; &#8220;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-28d77a7a>Bitcoin (BTC) could be in the process of bottoming after gaining 25%, based on several market signals.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>BTC&#8217;s price has rallied roughly\u00a025% after dropping to around $17,500 on June 18. The upside retrace came after a 75% correction when measured from its November 2021 high of $69,000.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-07\/20c730d7-f39d-48ee-bc8b-aef683108f9f.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>BTC\/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The recovery seems modest, however, and carries bearish continuation risks due to prevailing macroeconomic headwinds (rate hike, inflation, etc.) and the collapse of many high-profile crypto firms such as\u00a0Three Arrows Capital, Terra and others.<\/p>\n<p>But some widely-tracked indicators paint a different scenario, suggesting that Bitcoin&#8217;s downside prospects from current price levels are minimal.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"That_big_%E2%80%9Coversold%E2%80%9D_bounce\"><\/span>That big &#8220;oversold&#8221; bounce<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The first sign of Bitcoin&#8217;s macro bottom comes from its weekly relative strength index (RSI).<\/p>\n<p>Notably, BTC&#8217;s weekly RSI became &#8220;oversold&#8221; after dropping below 30 in the week of June 13. That is the first time the RSI has slipped into the oversold region since December 2018. Interestingly, Bitcoin had ended its bear market rally in the same month and rallied over 340% in the next six months to $14,000.<\/p>\n<p>In another instance, Bitcoin&#8217;s weekly RSI dropped toward 30 (if not below) in the week beginning March 9. That also coincided with BTC&#8217;s price bottoming below $4,000 and thereafter rallying to $69,000 by November 2021, as shown below.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-07\/cafea994-4cb3-415e-801e-66729f50d479.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>BTC\/USD weekly price chart featuring RSI-market bottom relationship. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Bitcoin price has rebounded similarly since June 18, opening the door to potentially repeat its history of parabolic rallies after an &#8220;oversold&#8221; RSI signal.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bitcoin_NUPL_jumps_above_zero\"><\/span>Bitcoin NUPL jumps above zero<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Another sign of a potential Bitcoin macro bottom comes from its net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) indicator.<\/p>\n<p>NUPL\u00a0is the difference between market cap and realized cap divided by market cap. It is represented as a ratio, wherein a reading above zero means investors are in profit. The higher the number, the more investors are in profit.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Related:\u00a0Bitcoin must close above $21.9K to avoid fresh BTC price crash \u2014 trader<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>On July 21, Bitcoin NUPL climbed above zero when the price wobbled around $22,000. Historically, such a flip has followed up with major BTC price rallies. The chart below illustrates the same.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-07\/984472b7-572b-4fb3-a231-c55522388e82.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>BTC\/USD versus NUPL performance since 2009. Source: CryptoQuant<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Mining_profitability\"><\/span>Mining profitability<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The third sign of Bitcoin forming a macro bottom comes from another on-chain indicator called the Puell Multiple.<\/p>\n<p>The Puell Multiple examines mining profitability and its impact of market prices. The indicator does it by\u00a0measuring a ratio of daily coin issuance (in USD) and the 365 moving average of daily coin issuance (in USD).<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-07\/9ef2b6fe-6406-4763-b6a6-9ff402aa03b1.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin Puell Multiple. Source: Glassnode<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>A strong Puell Multiple reading shows that mining profitability is high compared to the yearly average, suggesting miners would liquidate their Bitcoin treasury to maximize revenue. As a result, a higher Puell Multiple is known for coinciding with macro tops.<\/p>\n<p>Conversely, a lower Puell Multiple reading means the\u00a0miners&#8217; current profitability is below the yearly average. <\/p>\n<p>Thus, rigs with break-even or below-zero revenue from mining Bitcoin will risk shutting down, giving up market share to more competitive miners. The ousting of weaker miners from the Bitcoin network has historically reduced selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, the Puelle Multiple reading as of July 25 is in the green box and similar to levels observed during the March 2020 crash, 2018 and 2015 price bottoms.<\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n<\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. 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The upside retrace came after a 75% correction when measured from its November&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":477841,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/1200_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjItMDcvMTYzNTk3ODItOTVmOS00NWU2LWE0MDgtNWJjZGM3ZTNhMDI1LmpwZw==.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74862,81951,74937,74982,74939,78261,73785],"class_list":["post-477840","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc-markets","tag-market-analysis","tag-tech-analysis","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/477840","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=477840"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/477840\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/477841"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=477840"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=477840"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=477840"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}