{"id":478677,"date":"2022-07-26T11:13:13","date_gmt":"2022-07-26T08:13:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/scientists-calculate-the-risk-of-someone-being-killed-by-space-junk\/"},"modified":"2022-07-26T11:13:13","modified_gmt":"2022-07-26T08:13:13","slug":"scientists-calculate-the-risk-of-someone-being-killed-by-space-junk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/scientists-calculate-the-risk-of-someone-being-killed-by-space-junk\/","title":{"rendered":"#Scientists calculate the risk of someone being killed by space\u00a0junk"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a407109a45b9\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a407109a45b9\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/scientists-calculate-the-risk-of-someone-being-killed-by-space-junk\/#%E2%80%9CScientists_calculate_the_risk_of_someone_being_killed_by_space_junk%E2%80%9D\" >&#8220;Scientists calculate the risk of someone being killed by space\u00a0junk&#8221;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/scientists-calculate-the-risk-of-someone-being-killed-by-space-junk\/#Greetings_humanoids\" >Greetings, humanoids<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/scientists-calculate-the-risk-of-someone-being-killed-by-space-junk\/#What_can_be_done\" >What can be done<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9CScientists_calculate_the_risk_of_someone_being_killed_by_space_junk%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>&#8220;Scientists calculate the risk of someone being killed by space\u00a0junk&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div id=\"article-main-content\">\n                            The chance of someone being killed by space junk falling from the sky may seem ridiculously tiny. After all, nobody has yet died from such an accident, though there have been instances of injury and damage to property. But given that we are launching an increasing number of satellites, rockets, and probes into space, do we need to start taking the risk more seriously?<\/p>\n<p>A new study, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41550-022-01718-8\">published in Nature Astronomy<\/a>, has estimated the chance of causalities from falling rocket parts over the next ten years.<\/p>\n<p>Every minute of every day, debris rains down on us from space \u2013 a hazard we are almost completely unaware of. The microscopic particles from asteroids and comets patter down through the atmosphere to settle unnoticed on the Earth\u2019s surface \u2013 adding up to around 40,000 tonnes of dust each year.<\/p>\n<div class=\"inarticle-wrapper neural channel-cta hs-embed-tnw\">\n<div id=\"hs-embed-tnw\" class=\"channel-cta-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"channel-cta-img\"><img class=\"js-lazy\" https:=\"\"\/><\/div>\n<p><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thenextweb.com\/news\/src=\" https:=\"\"\/><\/noscript><\/p>\n<div class=\"channel-cta-input\">\n<h2 class=\"channel-cta-title\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Greetings_humanoids\"><\/span>Greetings, humanoids<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"channel-cta-tagline\">Subscribe to our <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a>letter now for a weekly recap of our favorite AI stories in your inbox.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>While this is not a problem for us, such debris can do damage to spacecraft \u2013 as was recently <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/ftp\/arxiv\/papers\/2207\/2207.05632.pdf\">reported for the James Webb space telescope<\/a>. Occasionally, a larger sample arrives as a <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/how-scientists-found-rare-fireball-meteorite-pieces-on-a-driveway-and-what-they-could-teach-us-156690\">meteorite<\/a>, and maybe once every 100 years or so, a body tens of meters across manages to drive through the atmosphere to excavate a crater.<\/p>\n<p>And \u2013 fortunately very rarely \u2013 <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/dont-look-up-several-asteroids-are-heading-towards-earth-heres-how-we-deal-with-threats-in-real-life-174512\">kilometer-sized objects<\/a> can make it to the surface, causing death and destruction \u2013 as shown by the lack of dinosaurs roaming the Earth today. These are examples of natural space debris, the uncontrolled arrival of which is unpredictable and spread more or less evenly across the globe.<\/p>\n<p>The new study, however, investigated the uncontrolled arrival of artificial space debris, such as spent rocket stages, associated with rocket launches and satellites. Using mathematical modeling of the inclinations and orbits of rocket parts in space and population density below them, as well as 30 years\u2019 worth of past satellite data, the authors estimated where rocket debris and other pieces of space junk land when they fall back to Earth.<\/p>\n<p>They found that there is a small, but significant, risk of parts re-entering in the coming decade. But this is more likely to h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>en over southern latitudes than northern ones. In fact, the study estimated that rocket bodies are approximately three times more likely to land at the latitudes of Jakarta in Indonesia, Dhaka in Bangladesh, or Lagos in Nigeria than those of New York in the US, Beijing in China, or Moscow in Russia.<\/p>\n<p>The authors also calculated a \u201ccasualty expectation\u201d \u2014 the risk to human life \u2014 over the next decade as a result of uncontrolled rocket re-entries. Assuming that each re-entry spreads lethal debris over an area of ten square meters, they found that there is a 10% chance of one or more casualties over the next decade, on average.<\/p>\n<p>To date, the potential for debris from satellites and rockets to cause harm at the Earth\u2019s surface (or in the atmosphere to air traffic) has been regarded as negligible. Most studies <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.esa.int\/Space_Safety\/Space_Debris\/The_current_state_of_space_debris#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20biggest%20contributor%20to%20the,the%20number%20of%20such%20events\">of such space debris<\/a> have focused on the risk generated in orbit by defunct satellites which might obstruct the safe operation of functioning satellites. Unused fuel and batteries also lead to explosions in orbit which generate additional waste.<\/p>\n<p>But as the number of entries into the rocket launch business increases \u2013 and moves from government to private enterprise \u2013 it is highly likely that the number of accidents, both in space and on Earth, such as that which followed the launch of the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.space.com\/chinese-rocket-booster-long-march-5b-space-junk-crash\">Chinese Long March 5b<\/a>, will also increase. The new study warns that the 10% figure is therefore a conservative estimate.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_can_be_done\"><\/span>What can be done<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>There are a range of technologies that make it entirely possible to control the re-entry of debris, but they are expensive to implement. For example, spacecraft can be \u201cpassivated\u201d, whereby unused energy (such as fuel or batteries) is expended rather than stored once the lifetime of the spacecraft has ended.<\/p>\n<p>The choice of orbit for a satellite can also reduce the chance of producing debris. A defunct satellite can be programmed to move into low Earth orbit, where it will burn up.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-center \">\n<figure class=\"post-image post-mediaBleed aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px\" alt=\"Image of Saudi officials inspect a crashed module in January 2001.\" width=\"600\" height=\"450\" class=\"js-lazy\" https:=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/475440\/original\/file-20220721-10058-au1ju6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/475440\/original\/file-20220721-10058-au1ju6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/475440\/original\/file-20220721-10058-au1ju6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/475440\/original\/file-20220721-10058-au1ju6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=565&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/475440\/original\/file-20220721-10058-au1ju6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=565&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/475440\/original\/file-20220721-10058-au1ju6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=565&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w\"\/><figcaption><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"#\" data-url=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Feditorial.thenextweb.com%2Fneural%2F2022%2F07%2F26%2Fscientists-calculate-risk-of-death-by-space-junk%2F&amp;via=thenextweb&amp;related=thenextweb&amp;text=Check out this picture on: Saudi officials inspect a crashed module in January 2001. Image: Wikipedia\" data-title=\"Share Saudi officials inspect a crashed module in January 2001. Image: Wikipedia on Twitter\" data-width=\"685\" data-height=\"500\" class=\"post-image-share popitup\" title=\"Share Saudi officials inspect a crashed module in January 2001. Image: Wikipedia on Twitter\"><i class=\"icon icon--inline icon--twitter--dark\"\/><\/a>Saudi officials inspect a crashed module in January 2001. Image: Wikipedia<\/figcaption><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" https:=\"\" alt=\"Image of Saudi officials inspect a crashed module in January 2001.\" width=\"600\" height=\"450\" class=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/475440\/original\/file-20220721-10058-au1ju6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/475440\/original\/file-20220721-10058-au1ju6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/475440\/original\/file-20220721-10058-au1ju6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/475440\/original\/file-20220721-10058-au1ju6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=565&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/475440\/original\/file-20220721-10058-au1ju6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=565&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/475440\/original\/file-20220721-10058-au1ju6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=565&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w\"\/><\/noscript><\/figure><figcaption\/><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<p>There are also attempts to launch reusable rockets which, for example, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spacex.com\/\">SpaceX<\/a> has demonstrated and <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.blueorigin.com\/new-glenn\/\">Blue Origin<\/a> is developing. These create a lot less debris, though there will be some from paint and metal shavings, as they return to Earth in a controlled way.<\/p>\n<p>Many agencies do take the risks seriously. The European Space Agency is planning a mission to <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/clearspace.today\/\">attempt the capture and removal of space debris<\/a> with a <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.space.com\/esa-startup-clearspace-debris-removal-2025\">four-armed robot<\/a>. The UN, through its Office of Outer Space Affairs, issued a set of <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.unoosa.org\/pdf\/publications\/st_space_49E.pdf\">Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines<\/a> in 2010, which was <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.unoosa.org\/res\/oosadoc\/data\/documents\/2018\/aac_1052018crp\/aac_1052018crp_20_0_html\/AC105_2018_CRP20E.pdf\">reinforced in 2018<\/a>. However, as the authors behind the new study point out, these are guidelines, not international law, and do not give specifics as to how mitigation activities should be implemented or controlled.<\/p>\n<p>The study argues that advancing technologies and more thoughtful mission design would reduce the rate of an uncontrolled re-entry of spacecraft debris, decreasing the hazard risk across the globe. It states that \u201cuncontrolled rocket body reentries constitute a collective action problem; solutions exist, but every launching state must adopt them.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>A requirement for governments to act together is not unprecedented, as shown by the agreement to ban ozone layer-destroying chlorofluorocarbon chemicals. But, rather sadly, this kind of action usually requires a major event with significant consequences for the northern hemisphere before action is taken. And changes to international protocols and conventions take time.<\/p>\n<p>In five years, it will be 70 years since the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov\/nmc\/spacecraft\/display.action?id=1957-001B#:%7E:text=Description,of%20the%20former%20Soviet%20Union.\">launch of the first satellite<\/a> into space. It would be a fitting celebration of that event if it could be marked by a strengthened and mandatory international treaty on space debris, ratified by all UN states. Ultimately, all nations would benefit from such an agreement.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" class=\"js-lazy\" https:=\"\"\/><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;\" https:=\"\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" class=\"\" srcset=\"\"\/><\/noscript><\/p>\n<p>This article by <span><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/monica-grady-125306\">Monica Grady<\/a>, Professor of Planetary and Space <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/sciencee\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"5\" title=\"Science\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Science<\/a>s, <em><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/the-open-university-748\">The Open University<\/a><\/em><\/span> is republished from <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/scientists-calculate-the-risk-of-someone-being-killed-by-space-junk-186666\">original article<\/a>.\n                        <\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more like this article, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/technology\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Technology category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thenextweb.com\/news\/scientists-calculate-risk-of-death-by-space-junk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;Scientists calculate the risk of someone being killed by space\u00a0junk&#8221; The chance of someone being killed by space junk falling from the sky may seem ridiculously tiny. After all, nobody has yet died from such an accident, though there have been instances of injury and damage to property. But given that we are launching an&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":478678,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/img-cdn.tnwcdn.com\/image\/neural?filter_last=1&fit=1280,640&url=https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2022\/07\/asteroid-impact.jpg&signature=2fe80e97229169fb82d7ddbe6495fbd7","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-478677","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technology"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/478677","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=478677"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/478677\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/478678"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=478677"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=478677"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=478677"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}