{"id":481088,"date":"2022-08-04T15:48:47","date_gmt":"2022-08-04T12:48:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/insane-evidence-bitcoin-has-capitulated-in-past-2-months-analysis\/"},"modified":"2022-08-04T15:48:47","modified_gmt":"2022-08-04T12:48:47","slug":"insane-evidence-bitcoin-has-capitulated-in-past-2-months-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/insane-evidence-bitcoin-has-capitulated-in-past-2-months-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"# &#8216;Insane evidence&#8217; Bitcoin has capitulated in past 2 months \u2014 analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2f7c63023a7\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2f7c63023a7\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/insane-evidence-bitcoin-has-capitulated-in-past-2-months-analysis\/#%E2%80%9D_%E2%80%98Insane_evidence_Bitcoin_has_capitulated_in_past_2_months_%E2%80%94_analysis_%E2%80%9C\" >&#8221; &#8216;Insane evidence&#8217; Bitcoin has capitulated in past 2 months \u2014 analysis &#8220;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/insane-evidence-bitcoin-has-capitulated-in-past-2-months-analysis\/#%E2%80%9CRisk-returns_skewed_positively%E2%80%9D_for_Bitcoin\" >&#8220;Risk-returns skewed positively&#8221; for Bitcoin<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/insane-evidence-bitcoin-has-capitulated-in-past-2-months-analysis\/#%E2%80%9CGreat_accumulation_zone%E2%80%9D_returns\" >&#8220;Great accumulation zone&#8221; returns<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9D_%E2%80%98Insane_evidence_Bitcoin_has_capitulated_in_past_2_months_%E2%80%94_analysis_%E2%80%9C\"><\/span>&#8221; &#8216;Insane evidence&#8217; Bitcoin has capitulated in past 2 months \u2014 analysis &#8220;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-28d77a7a>Bitcoin (BTC) is providing overwhelming evidence that it is capitulating, and it is time to flip bullish as a result, new analysis believes.<\/p>\n<p>In a <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/caprioleio\/status\/1554793514583605248\">Twitter thread<\/a> on Aug. 3, Charles Edwards, CEO of crypto asset manager Capriole, revealed what he called the \u201cThe 12 Bitcoin Capitulations.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9CRisk-returns_skewed_positively%E2%80%9D_for_Bitcoin\"><\/span>&#8220;Risk-returns skewed positively&#8221; for Bitcoin<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>With BTC price action recovering from multi-year lows but still hovering near key bear market support, opinions vary widely as to what will h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>en next.<\/p>\n<p>Some are demanding a return to levels even lower than June\u2019s $17,600 trough, while others argue that a \u201cbear market relief rally\u201d could take BTC\/USD as high as $40,000 first.<\/p>\n<p>For Edwards, the raw evidence suggests that the past months have been bearish enough, and that behind the scenes, Bitcoin has been quietly capitulating.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe raw count of evidence for major Bitcoin capitulation today is insane,\u201d he wrote about his twelve key examples. <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cEach occurrence alone is a rare event and adds to the probability that forward risk-returns are skewed positively.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>In addition to popular on-chain signals previously covered by Cointelegraph including MVRV and NUPL, Edwards\u2019 evidence includes macro triggers such as poor United States equities performance and stagnant M2 money supply growth.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe have just seen the _worst_ inflation-adjusted downdraws in traditional markets in the last 8 generations. Enough said,\u201d he continued, noting that the S&amp;P 500 had delivered its worst returns in real terms since 1872.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-08\/c7ed5871-1985-4191-9d19-9a3d4c02ac5d.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>S&amp;P 500 returns annotated chart. Source: Charles Edwards\/ <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Twitter<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The cherry on the cake in the 2022 Bitcoin bear market, however, is the rate at which industry players themselves have capitulated.<\/p>\n<p>For Edwards, bankruptcy events at Celsius, Voyager and others, combined with Tesla selling the majority of its BTC holdings at a loss, is the \u201cultimate sign of capitulation.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>\u201cTake a look at the level of institutional capitulation here,\u201d he commented.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cLeverage is one of the best indicators for relative over- and under-valuation in Bitcoin, and many major leveraged crypto institutions have been wiped out.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>According to separate data from monitoring resource <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/bitcointreasuries.net\/\">Bitcoin Treasuries<\/a>, Tesla remains the public company with the second-largest BTC reserves but is now far behind leader MicroStrategy and its 129,698 BTC stack.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-08\/92fcb019-0285-48ce-9005-8a1b7d727175.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Public companies&#8217; Bitcoin holdings as of Aug. 4 (screenshot). Source: Bitcoin Treasuries<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9CGreat_accumulation_zone%E2%80%9D_returns\"><\/span>&#8220;Great accumulation zone&#8221; returns<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>As Cointelegraph recently noted, capitulation has also been apparent among Bitcoin miners since the dip to the lowest prices since late 2020.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Related:\u00a0Historically accurate Bitcoin metric exits buy zone in \u2018unprecedented\u2019 2022 bear market<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>After initially selling their BTC inventory, however, miners have staged a dramatic about turn, new data suggests, in yet another sign that the worst of the capitulation may already be over.<\/p>\n<p>Beyond miners, the amount of the BTC supply being transferred at a lower price than that which was paid for it has hit levels Edwards says are indicative of accumulation.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-08\/72d84c20-1f9e-424c-8603-476b2ab2af86.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin % supply transferred at a loss annotated chart. Source: Charles Edwards\/ Twitter<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&#8220;The percentage of total supply transferred at a loss hit 1.9% last month,&#8221; he wrote alongside a chart from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Historically, when this metric breaches 1.5% it demonstrates that a large portion of the market is in pain. Most were also great accumulation zones.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n<\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. 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In a Twitter thread on Aug. 3, Charles Edwards, CEO of crypto asset manager Capriole, revealed what he called&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":481089,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/1200_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjItMDgvZjBmNmNhNDUtNmFmOS00NWExLWI5MTYtM2E2ZDNjYWViMGM1LmpwZw==.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74862,74937,73785],"class_list":["post-481088","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/481088","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=481088"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/481088\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/481089"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=481088"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=481088"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=481088"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}