{"id":483440,"date":"2022-08-11T16:40:01","date_gmt":"2022-08-11T13:40:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/the-worlds-biggest-ice-sheet-is-more-vulnerable-to-global-warming-than-scientists-previously-thought\/"},"modified":"2022-08-11T16:40:01","modified_gmt":"2022-08-11T13:40:01","slug":"the-worlds-biggest-ice-sheet-is-more-vulnerable-to-global-warming-than-scientists-previously-thought","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/the-worlds-biggest-ice-sheet-is-more-vulnerable-to-global-warming-than-scientists-previously-thought\/","title":{"rendered":"#The world&#8217;s biggest ice sheet is more vulnerable to global warming than scientists previously thought"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3a9a841932f\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3a9a841932f\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/the-worlds-biggest-ice-sheet-is-more-vulnerable-to-global-warming-than-scientists-previously-thought\/#%E2%80%9CThe_worlds_biggest_ice_sheet_is_more_vulnerable_to_global_warming_than_scientists_previously_thought%E2%80%9D\" >&#8220;The world&#8217;s biggest ice sheet is more vulnerable to global warming than scientists previously thought&#8221;<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9CThe_worlds_biggest_ice_sheet_is_more_vulnerable_to_global_warming_than_scientists_previously_thought%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>&#8220;The world&#8217;s biggest ice sheet is more vulnerable to global warming than scientists previously thought&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div>\n<div class=\"article-gallery lightGallery\">\n<div data-thumb=\"https:\/\/scx1.b-cdn.net\/csz\/news\/tmb\/2022\/the-worlds-biggest-ice.jpg\" data-src=\"https:\/\/scx2.b-cdn.net\/gfx\/news\/hires\/2022\/the-worlds-biggest-ice.jpg\" data-sub-html=\"Credit: titoOnz \/ shutterstock\">\n<figure class=\"article-img\">\n            <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/scx1.b-cdn.net\/csz\/news\/800a\/2022\/the-worlds-biggest-ice.jpg\" alt=\"The world's biggest ice sheet is more vulnerable to global warming than scientists previously thought\" title=\"Credit: titoOnz \/ shutterstock\" width=\"800\" height=\"394\"\/><figcaption class=\"text-darken text-low-up text-truncate-js text-truncate mt-3\">\n                Credit: titoOnz \/ shutterstock<br \/>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The eastern two thirds of Antarctica is covered by an ice sheet so large that if it melted the sea would rise by 52 meters. Most scientists had once thought this ice sheet was largely invulnerable to climate change, but not any more. And our new research, published in <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-022-04946-0\"><i>Nature<\/i><\/a>, reveals the dire consequences if we were to awaken Antarctica&#8217;s sleeping giant.<\/p>\n<section class=\"article-banner first-banner ads-336x280\">\n         <!-- \/4988204\/Phys_Story_InText_Box --><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p>Almost 70% of the Earth&#8217;s fresh water is frozen in vast continental ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica. Together, they store the equivalent of around 65 meters of sea level rise. Hence, even relatively small changes in the volume of these remote polar ice sheets will have a global impact. An <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-019-12808-z\">estimated<\/a> 1 billion people live within 10 meters of sea level, including 230 million within 1 meter.<\/p>\n<p>Scientists measure changes in the volume of these ice sheets by estimating the mass input, mostly via snowfall, and the mass output, mostly melting snow and ice along with icebergs that break off and float away. The difference between input and output is known as the ice sheet&#8217;s &#8220;mass balance,&#8221; which is highly sensitive to climate change.<\/p>\n<p>The most recent efforts to measure ice sheet mass balance paint a very worrying picture. The Greenland Ice Sheet, which contains around 7.4 meters of sea level rise, lost <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-019-1855-2\">3,900 billion tons of ice<\/a> between 1992 and 2018, causing global sea level to increase by 11 millimeters over this period. A similar story emerges from the western part of Antarctica, known as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. It holds around 5.3 meters of sea level and lost more than <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-018-0179-y\">2,000 billion tons of ice<\/a> between 1992 and 2017, adding around 6 mm to the sea level. <\/p>\n<div class=\"article-gallery lightGallery\">\n<div data-thumb=\"https:\/\/scx1.b-cdn.net\/csz\/news\/tmb\/2022\/the-worlds-biggest-ice-1.jpg\" data-src=\"https:\/\/scx2.b-cdn.net\/gfx\/news\/2022\/the-worlds-biggest-ice-1.jpg\" data-sub-html=\"A field camp on the surface of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Credit: Nerilie Abram, Author provided\">\n<figure class=\"article-img text-center\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/scx1.b-cdn.net\/csz\/news\/800a\/2022\/the-worlds-biggest-ice-1.jpg\" alt=\"The world's biggest ice sheet is more vulnerable to global warming than scientists previously thought\" title=\"A field camp on the surface of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Credit: Nerilie Abram, Author provided\"\/><figcaption class=\"text-left text-darken text-truncate text-low-up mt-3\">\n                A field camp on the surface of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Credit: Nerilie Abram, Author provided<br \/>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><b>More sensitive than we thought<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Perhaps surprisingly, much less work has focused on the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, which is by far the world&#8217;s largest but was thought to be a lot less vulnerable to global warming. This is because large parts of the ice sheet have persisted through &#8220;natural&#8221; climate changes across <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/376412a0\">millions of years<\/a>, and because recent measurements indicate that it has been in equilibrium or has maybe even gained mass (a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, which means more snow). In fact, the ice sheet may have even slightly <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-018-0356-x\">reduced sea level rise<\/a> over the past century.<\/p>\n<p>However, over the past two decades or so, observations suggest that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet may be far more sensitive to climate warming than previously thought. Major <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1002\/2016GL069173\">outlet glaciers<\/a> like the Totten and Vanderford are thinning and retreating. And there are clear signals of mass loss in Wilkes Land, the ice sheet&#8217;s &#8220;<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1029\/2019GL086821\">weak underbelly<\/a>,&#8221; so-called because it rests on &#8220;land&#8221; that lies well below sea-level and so is <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.egu.eu\/divisions\/cr\/2016\/06\/22\/marine-ice-sheet-instability-for-dummies-2\/\">particularly unstable<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-gallery lightGallery\">\n<div data-thumb=\"https:\/\/scx1.b-cdn.net\/csz\/news\/tmb\/2022\/the-worlds-biggest-ice-2.jpg\" data-src=\"https:\/\/scx2.b-cdn.net\/gfx\/news\/2022\/the-worlds-biggest-ice-2.jpg\" data-sub-html=\"Thickness of ice in Antarctica (UK and Ireland shown for scale). Credit: Data: Morlighem et al. (2020; Nature Geoscience) Image: Guy Paxman, Author provided\">\n<figure class=\"article-img text-center\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/scx1.b-cdn.net\/csz\/news\/800a\/2022\/the-worlds-biggest-ice-2.jpg\" alt=\"The world's biggest ice sheet is more vulnerable to global warming than scientists previously thought\" title=\"Thickness of ice in Antarctica (UK and Ireland shown for scale). Credit: Data: Morlighem et al. (2020; Nature Geoscience) Image: Guy Paxman, Author provided\"\/><figcaption class=\"text-left text-darken text-truncate text-low-up mt-3\">\n                Thickness of ice in Antarctica (UK and Ireland shown for scale). Credit: Data: Morlighem et al. (2020; Nature Geo<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/sciencee\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"5\" title=\"Science\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">science<\/a>) Image: Guy Paxman, Author provided<br \/>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><b>Lessons from the past<\/b><\/p>\n<p>There is also <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/ngeo1889\">evidence<\/a> that parts of East Antarctica retreated quite dramatically during warm periods in the past, when carbon dioxide concentrations and atmospheric temperatures were only slightly higher than present. <\/p>\n<p>It is likely that East Antarctica contributed several meters to global sea level during the mid-Pliocene warm period, around 3 million years ago, with ice loss concentrated in Wilkes Land. <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-020-2484-5\">Recent work<\/a> has also suggested that ice in Wilkes Land retreated 700 km inland from its present position around 400,000 years ago, when global temperatures were only 1 or 2\u2103 higher than present. A key lesson from the past, therefore, is that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is highly sensitive to relatively modest warming, even if it is currently stable.<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-gallery lightGallery\">\n<div data-thumb=\"https:\/\/scx1.b-cdn.net\/csz\/news\/tmb\/2022\/the-worlds-biggest-ice-3.jpg\" data-src=\"https:\/\/scx2.b-cdn.net\/gfx\/news\/2022\/the-worlds-biggest-ice-3.jpg\" data-sub-html=\"Iceberg towers that have broken off from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Credit: Nerilie Abram, Author provided\">\n<figure class=\"article-img text-center\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/scx1.b-cdn.net\/csz\/news\/800a\/2022\/the-worlds-biggest-ice-3.jpg\" alt=\"The world's biggest ice sheet is more vulnerable to global warming than scientists previously thought\" title=\"Iceberg towers that have broken off from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Credit: Nerilie Abram, Author provided\"\/><figcaption class=\"text-left text-darken text-truncate text-low-up mt-3\">\n                Iceberg towers that have broken off from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Credit: Nerilie Abram, Author provided<br \/>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><b>Don&#8217;t wake a sleeping giant<\/b><\/p>\n<p>So what will actually h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>en over the next few decades and centuries? We recently analyzed projections from various computer simulations to answer this question. Our results were alarming, but also offered some encouragement.<\/p>\n<p>We found the ice sheet will probably remain broadly in balance in the short-term, because any mass loss due to global warming will be offset by increased snowfall. Although there are large uncertainties, we concluded that the ice sheet will only raise the sea level by about 2cm by the year 2100, which is much less than the contribution projected from melting ice in Greenland or West Antarctica.<\/p>\n<p>Over the next few centuries, however, the sea-level contribution from East Antarctica will depend critically on whether we manage to curb our emissions. If warming continues beyond 2100, sustained by high emissions, then East Antarctica could contribute around 1 to 3 meters by 2300 and around 2 to 5 meters by 2500, adding to the substantial contributions from Greenland and West Antarctica and threatening millions of people who inhabit coastal areas.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"article-gallery js-article-gallery\">\n<li data-thumb=\"https:\/\/scx1.b-cdn.net\/csz\/news\/tmb\/2022\/the-worlds-biggest-ice-4.jpg\" data-src=\"https:\/\/scx2.b-cdn.net\/gfx\/news\/2022\/the-worlds-biggest-ice-4.jpg\" data-sub-html=\"The edge of Vanderford Glacier, one of the major outlet glaciers that appears to be thinning and retreating in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica. Credit: Richard Jones, Author provided\">\n<figure class=\"article-img text-center\">\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/scx1.b-cdn.net\/csz\/news\/800\/2022\/the-worlds-biggest-ice-4.jpg\" alt=\"The world's biggest ice sheet is more vulnerable to global warming than scientists previously thought\"\/><figcaption class=\"text-left text-darken text-low-up text-truncate mt-3\">\n                    The edge of Vanderford Glacier, one of the major outlet glaciers that appears to be thinning and retreating in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica. Credit: Richard Jones, Author provided<br \/>\n                <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/li>\n<li data-thumb=\"https:\/\/scx1.b-cdn.net\/csz\/news\/tmb\/2022\/the-worlds-biggest-ice-5.jpg\" data-src=\"https:\/\/scx2.b-cdn.net\/gfx\/news\/2022\/the-worlds-biggest-ice-5.jpg\" data-sub-html=\"How much the sea would rise thanks to melting water from the Each Antarctic Ice Sheet if warming was kept below 2C (left column in each year) and in an extreme warming scenario (right). Credit: Richard Jones, Monash University, Author provided\">\n<figure class=\"article-img text-center\">\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/scx1.b-cdn.net\/csz\/news\/800\/2022\/the-worlds-biggest-ice-5.jpg\" alt=\"The world's biggest ice sheet is more vulnerable to global warming than scientists previously thought\"\/><figcaption class=\"text-left text-darken text-low-up text-truncate mt-3\">\n                    How much the sea would rise thanks to melting water from the Each Antarctic Ice Sheet if warming was kept below 2C (left column in each year) and in an extreme warming scenario (right). Credit: Richard Jones, Monash University, Author provided<br \/>\n                <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Crucially, however, our analysis suggests that if the Paris Agreement to limit warming to well below 2\u2103 is satisfied, then East Antarctica&#8217;s sea-level contribution would remain below 0.5 meters, even five centuries from now.<\/p>\n<p>The fate of the world&#8217;s largest ice sheet remains in our hands.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<div class=\"article-main__explore my-4 d-print-none\">\n<p>                                            Fate of the world&#8217;s biggest ice sheet is in our hands, scientists say\n                                        <\/p><\/div>\n<hr class=\"mb-4\"\/>\n<div class=\"d-inline-block text-medium my-4\">\n                                                Provided by<br \/>\n                                                                                                    The Conversation<br \/>\n                                                                                                        <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"icon_open\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\"><br \/>\n                                                        <svg>\n                                                            <use href=\"https:\/\/phys.b-cdn.net\/tmpl\/v6\/img\/svg\/sprite.svg#icon_open\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\"\/>\n                                                        <\/svg><br \/>\n                                                    <\/a><\/p><\/div>\n<p class=\"article-main__note mt-4\">\n                                                This article is republished from <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/the-worlds-biggest-ice-sheet-is-more-vulnerable-to-global-warming-than-scientists-previously-thought-187500\">original article<\/a>.<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/187500\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\"\/><\/p>\n<p>                                        <!-- print only --><\/p>\n<div class=\"d-none d-print-block\">\n<p>                                                 <strong>Citation<\/strong>:<br \/>\n                                                 The world&#8217;s biggest ice sheet is more vulnerable to global warming than scientists previously thought (2022, August 11)<br \/>\n                                                 retrieved 11 August 2022<br \/>\n                                                 from https:\/\/phys.org\/<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a>\/2022-08-world-biggest-ice-sheet-vulnerable.html<\/p>\n<p>                                            This document is subject to copyright. 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Most scientists had once thought this ice sheet was largely invulnerable&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":483441,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/scx2.b-cdn.net\/gfx\/news\/hires\/2022\/the-worlds-biggest-ice.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-483440","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sciencee"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/483440","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=483440"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/483440\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/483441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=483440"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=483440"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=483440"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}