{"id":493282,"date":"2022-09-15T19:59:00","date_gmt":"2022-09-15T16:59:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/commodities-corner-oils-crazy-price-moves-arent-really-crazy-at-all\/"},"modified":"2022-09-15T19:59:00","modified_gmt":"2022-09-15T16:59:00","slug":"commodities-corner-oils-crazy-price-moves-arent-really-crazy-at-all","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/commodities-corner-oils-crazy-price-moves-arent-really-crazy-at-all\/","title":{"rendered":"#Commodities Corner: Oil\u2019s crazy price moves aren\u2019t really crazy at all"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_89 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6aede2c227a8d\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6aede2c227a8d\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/commodities-corner-oils-crazy-price-moves-arent-really-crazy-at-all\/#%E2%80%9CCommodities_Corner_Oils_crazy_price_moves_arent_really_crazy_at_all%E2%80%9D\" >&#8220;Commodities Corner: Oil\u2019s crazy price moves aren\u2019t really crazy at all&#8221;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/commodities-corner-oils-crazy-price-moves-arent-really-crazy-at-all\/#Myra_P_Saefong\" >Myra P. Saefong<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9CCommodities_Corner_Oils_crazy_price_moves_arent_really_crazy_at_all%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>&#8220;Commodities Corner: Oil\u2019s crazy price moves aren\u2019t really crazy at all&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\">\n<\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div class=\"article__side\">\n<div class=\"container--sticky not-active\">\n<div id=\"cx-next\" data-nosnippet>\n              <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap crawler\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0001193634\" role=\"document\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-layout=\"\n                inline\" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetArticleReader\n              \n              inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetArticleReader\n              article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"media-object-article-reader\">\n<div class=\"audioplayer\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0001193634\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"Listen to Article\" tabindex=\"-1\" id=\"articlereader\" data-show-title=\"false\" data-theme=\"wsj-article-reader\" data-show-header=\"false\" data-show-subscribe=\"false\" data-ads-enabled=\"true\" data-save-publication=\"false\">\n        <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       Believe it or not, there is some sanity to the\u00a0chaos in oil prices, which have climbed this year to their highest since 2008 only to fall back to their lowest in eight months.<\/p>\n<p> \u201cThe market is overreacting to fears either due to expected tightness in supply or, as currently is the case, worries about weaker oil demand due to the threat of recession,\u201d says Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president of macro oils at Wood Mackenzie. \u201cThis has triggered a sharp pullback in prices.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetDynamic\n            inline\n    scope-web|mobileapps\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetDynamic\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"dynamic-inset-container article__inset__dynamic\">\n<div id=\"chart_8a1675d3e543147bcee27d40\"><\/div>\n<p><script>\n(function () {\n  function createChart() {\n    var CHART_ENGINE_NAME = 'CustomDataChart_MARKETWATCH_0_9_4';\n    var definitions = {};\n    function loadScript(src) {\n      var script = 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data\n      );\n    }\n  }\n  if (document.readyState === 'complete') {\n    createChart();\n  } else {\n    window.addEventListener('load', createChart, false);\n  }\n})();\n<\/script><\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       Global benchmark Brent<br \/>\n        BRN00,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/209704782\/delayed\" class=\"negative\">-2.91%<\/bg-quote><\/p>\n<p>        BRNX22,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/209705766\/delayed\" class=\"negative\">-2.91%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       and U.S. benchmark West Texas Inter<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">media<\/a>te<br \/>\n        CL.1,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/211629951\/delayed\" class=\"negative\">-3.28%<\/bg-quote><\/p>\n<p>        CLV22,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/209726775\/delayed\" class=\"negative\">-3.28%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       oil on March 8 saw futures prices settle at their highest since 2008, with Brent at $127.98 and WTI at $123.70 a barrel. Both have retreated from those levels, with prices marking their lowest settlements since January, with Brent at $88 and WTI at $81.94 on Sept. 7.<\/p>\n<p>Saudi Arabia\u2019s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, told Bloomberg last month that the \u201cpaper and physical [oil] markets have become increasingly more disconnected\u201d amid extreme volatility and lack of liquidity. \u201cThe market is in a state of schizophrenia.\u201d He also said OPEC+ is determined to make a new agreement beyond this year \u201cmore effective than before.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Following his comments, OPEC+\u2014comprised of members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, including Russia\u2014decided to cut production\u00a0by 100,000 barrels a day for October, reversing the increase of 100,000 barrels a day for September.<\/p>\n<p>However, many analysts don\u2019t believe there\u2019s any disconnect or distortion in the market. \u201cThe current oil-trading market is functioning well and is not suffering from distortions,\u201d says Vikas Dwivedi,\u00a0Macquarie Group\u2019s<br \/>\n        MQG,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/206727308\/delayed\" class=\"positive\">+0.14%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n      \u00a0global oil and gas strategist. \u201cThe market has had to deal with more binary events over the past two years than just about any period we\u2019ve seen,\u201d contributing to unpredictability, he says.<\/p>\n<p>Supply risks from the Russia-Ukraine war and talk of underinvestment in\u00a0oil production\u00a0have helped support oil prices, while pressure on prices has come from China\u2019s economic slowdown due to Covid lockdowns, strategic-oil-reserve releases from industrialized nations, and the potential for an Iran nuclear deal that would lead to more oil on the market.<\/p>\n<p>Oil traders ought to pay close attention to \u201cenergy-policy changes across Europe, the way big oil companies are paying management teams to focus on profitability and not increase volumes, [and] ongoing discussions from OPEC+,\u201d says Marcus McGregor, director of investment research at institutional investment manager Conning.<\/p>\n<p>They should also watch developments tied to the nuclear deal with Iran and the \u201clatest trajectory on renewables consumption, and understand what\u2019s baked into current global GDP estimates region to region,\u201d says McGregor. He expects spot oil prices to remain volatile in the near term.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s another thing traders should keep in mind: \u201cCommodity markets, oil or otherwise, have never been predictable, and they never will be,\u201d says Pavel Molchanov, analyst at Raymond James.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cx-membership-tile\"><\/div>\n<p>The oil market is currently in a state of backwardation, where futures prices trade below the spot market, reflecting the expectations that Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine will end, he says. Still, it\u2019s clear this conflict will continue \u201cwell into 2023.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Read:<\/strong> High fuel costs will continue to contribute to the rise in food prices<\/p>\n<p>Raymond James estimates that Russian oil exports have fallen by 500,000 barrels a day since February, so the European Union\u2019s embargo against Russian oil, which takes effect at the end of 2022, should not be underestimated, he says. As long as the war drags on, Russia will be \u201cthe No. 1 source of uncertainty vis-\u00e0-vis oil supply,\u201d Molchanov says.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBeyond that, the trajectory of demand will be influenced by macroeconomic trends: central-bank actions in the U.S. and Europe, supply-chain problems, and China\u2019s zero-Covid policy,\u201d he says.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>    <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author mobile-scrim hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"Myra P. Saefong\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"bio\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/topics\/journalists\/myra-p-saefong\",\"text\":\"Biography\"},{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"twitter\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MktwSaefong\",\"text\":\"@MktwSaefong\"},{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"email\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/mailto:mpicache@marketwatch.com\",\"text\":\"mpicache@marketwatch.com\"}]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Myra_P_Saefong\"><\/span>Myra P. Saefong<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><ufc-follow-author-widget product=\"marketwatch\" author-id=\"147_MW\" author-name=\"Myra P. Saefong\" signin-url=\"https:\/\/accounts.marketwatch.com\/login?target=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Fstory%2Foils-crazy-price-moves-arent-really-crazy-at-all-11663261187%3Frss%3D1%26siteid%3Drss\" panda-api=\"https:\/\/follow-api.marketwatch.com\"><\/ufc-follow-author-widget><\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-7123-6A2FA1C9044C%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;Commodities Corner: Oil\u2019s crazy price moves aren\u2019t really crazy at all&#8221; Believe it or not, there is some sanity to the\u00a0chaos in oil prices, which have climbed this year to their highest since 2008 only to fall back to their lowest in eight months. \u201cThe market is overreacting to fears either due to expected tightness&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":493283,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-624003\/social","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-493282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/493282","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=493282"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/493282\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/493283"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=493282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=493282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=493282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}