{"id":494548,"date":"2022-09-20T14:25:00","date_gmt":"2022-09-20T11:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/fa-center-this-could-be-the-missing-link-as-to-why-september-yet-again-is-hitting-stocks-hard\/"},"modified":"2022-09-20T14:25:00","modified_gmt":"2022-09-20T11:25:00","slug":"fa-center-this-could-be-the-missing-link-as-to-why-september-yet-again-is-hitting-stocks-hard","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/fa-center-this-could-be-the-missing-link-as-to-why-september-yet-again-is-hitting-stocks-hard\/","title":{"rendered":"#FA Center: This could be the missing link as to why September \u2014 yet again \u2014 is hitting stocks hard"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3be3c5e6ce4\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3be3c5e6ce4\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/fa-center-this-could-be-the-missing-link-as-to-why-september-yet-again-is-hitting-stocks-hard\/#%E2%80%9CFA_Center_This_could_be_the_missing_link_as_to_why_September_%E2%80%94_yet_again_%E2%80%94_is_hitting_stocks_hard%E2%80%9D\" >&#8220;FA Center: This could be the missing link as to why September \u2014 yet again \u2014 is hitting stocks hard&#8221;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/fa-center-this-could-be-the-missing-link-as-to-why-september-yet-again-is-hitting-stocks-hard\/#Seasonal_Affective_Disorder_starts_to_influence_peoples_moods_in_September\" >Seasonal Affective Disorder starts to influence people\u2019s moods in September<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-6' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-6'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-6' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-6'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-6' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-6'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-6' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-6'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/fa-center-this-could-be-the-missing-link-as-to-why-september-yet-again-is-hitting-stocks-hard\/#The_September_effect\" >The September effect<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/fa-center-this-could-be-the-missing-link-as-to-why-september-yet-again-is-hitting-stocks-hard\/#Mark_Hulbert\" >Mark Hulbert<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9CFA_Center_This_could_be_the_missing_link_as_to_why_September_%E2%80%94_yet_again_%E2%80%94_is_hitting_stocks_hard%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>&#8220;FA Center: This could be the missing link as to why September \u2014 yet again \u2014 is hitting stocks hard&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Seasonal_Affective_Disorder_starts_to_influence_peoples_moods_in_September\"><\/span>\n  Seasonal Affective Disorder starts to influence people\u2019s moods in September<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div class=\"article__side\">\n<div class=\"container--sticky not-active\">\n<div id=\"cx-next\" data-nosnippet>\n              <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap crawler\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0001203512\" role=\"document\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-layout=\"\n                inline\" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetArticleReader\n              \n              inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetArticleReader\n              article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"media-object-article-reader\">\n<div class=\"audioplayer\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0001203512\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"Listen to Article\" tabindex=\"-1\" id=\"articlereader\" data-show-title=\"false\" data-theme=\"wsj-article-reader\" data-show-header=\"false\" data-show-subscribe=\"false\" data-ads-enabled=\"true\" data-save-publication=\"false\">\n        <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       September <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ears to be the worst month for Seasonal Affective Disorder, which may be the missing link for why the month is so bad for the stock market.<\/p>\n<p> Seasonal Affective Disorder, or SAD, is a depressive mood disorder related to the change of seasons. While most of us have heard of SAD, few associate it with September. When we think of SAD, we instead think of the shortest days of the year in December and January. We\u2019re not wrong. More people suffer from SAD during the winter months than in September.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n       What affects the stock market isn\u2019t the absolute number of those suffering from SAD \u2014 but changes in that number. And the biggest month-to-month change in those suffering from SAD occurs between August and September, according to an analysis of <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/profile\/Raymond-Lam-7\/publication\/279695534_Seasonal_affective_disorder_Diagnosis_and_management\/links\/56869e5e08aebccc4e13bb1e\/Seasonal-affective-disorder-Diagnosis-and-management.pdf\" class=\"icon none\">data compiled by Dr. Raymond Lam, a Professor and Leadership Chair in Depression Research at the University of British Columbia<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<div style=\"padding-bottom:67.28571428571428%;\" data-subtype=\"photo\" class=\"image-container  responsive-media article__inset__image__image\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-623510?width=540&amp;size=1.4849187935034802 540w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-623510?width=620&amp;size=1.4849187935034802 620w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-623510?width=639&amp;size=1.4849187935034802 639w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-623510?width=700&amp;size=1.4849187935034802 700w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-623510?width=700&amp;size=1.4849187935034802&amp;pixel_ratio=1.5 1050w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-623510?width=700&amp;size=1.4849187935034802&amp;pixel_ratio=2 1400w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-623510?width=700&amp;size=1.4849187935034802&amp;pixel_ratio=3 2100w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 639px) 100vw, (max-width: 979px) 620px, (max-width: 1299px) 540px, 700px\" src=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-623510?width=700&amp;height=471\" alt=\"\" title=\"\">\n      <\/div><figcaption class=\"wsj-article-caption article__inset__image__caption\" itemprop=\"caption\">\n      <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       The monthly composite data are plotted in the chart above. Notice that the highest reading is in September. I suspect you already know intuitively that the picture this chart is painting could be accurate, since many of us begin to experience the depressive effects of SAD around Labor Day \u2014 when summer comes to an end, the days shorten and children return to school. Even though the weather remains  warm and the hours of daylight nearly as long as in August, our psyches are already anticipating the coldest and shortest days in the dead of winter.<\/p>\n<p>Researchers were able to connect these monthly SAD changes with the stock market by measuring flows of cash into and out of equity mutual funds. Perhaps the most prominent study establishing this connection appeared in 2017 in the <em>Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis<\/em>. Entitled \u201c<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/S002210901600082X\" class=\"icon none\">Seasonal Asset Allocation: Evidence from Mutual Fund Flows<\/a>,\u201d the study was conducted by Mark Kamstra of Canada\u2019s York University; Lisa Kramer of the University of Toronto; Maurice Levi of the University of British Columbia, and Russ Wermers of the University of Maryland.<\/p>\n<p>The researchers went to great lengths to eliminate the possibility that monthly changes in the incidence of SAD were a proxy for some other factor previously found to explain stock market changes. After controlling for those other factors, they found a high correlation between the data in the accompanying chart and flows into and out of equity mutual funds. The month experiencing the biggest net outflow is September.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s strong circumstantial evidence. Even more compelling is what emerged when the researchers studied the correlation between SAD and mutual fund flows in Australia. Since that country is in the southern hemisphere, the incidence of SAD should be the mirror opposite of the U.S. pattern. Sure enough, mutual fund flows in Australia follow the same pattern as in the U.S., shifted six months forward.<\/p>\n<h6><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_September_effect\"><\/span><strong>The September effect<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h6>\n<p>One of the more intriguing implications of this research is its ability to explain the strong historical tendency for September to be the worst month for the stock market. Though this pattern is strong statistically, I have argued before that you shouldn\u2019t bet on its persistence unless a plausible and convincing explanation for its existence could be found. Up until now I was not aware of any such explanation.<\/p>\n<p>While recognizing that there are no sure bets in the stock market, this research correlating SAD with mutual fund flows provides this otherwise missing explanation. That in turn should increase our confidence when betting on September weakness.<\/p>\n<p>So far this year\u2019s September is adhering to form. As of Sept. 19, the S&amp;P 500<br \/>\n        SPX,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210599714\/realtime\" class=\"positive\">+0.69%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       is down 1.4% from where it stood at the end of August, while the Nasdaq Composite<br \/>\n        COMP,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210598365\/realtime\" class=\"positive\">+0.76%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       is 2.4% lower.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cx-membership-tile\"><\/div>\n<p><em>Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a>letters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at <\/em><em>mark@hulbertratings.com<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>More:<\/strong> If you need one more reason why stocks will likely lose money in September, here it is.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Plus: <\/strong>What history says about September and the stock market after summer bounce runs out of steam<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>    <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author mobile-scrim hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"Mark Hulbert\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"bio\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/topics\/journalists\/mark-hulbert\",\"text\":\"Biography\"},{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"twitter\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MktwHulbert\",\"text\":\"@MktwHulbert\"},{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"email\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/mailto:contributors@marketwatch.com\",\"text\":\"contributors@marketwatch.com\"}]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Mark_Hulbert\"><\/span>Mark Hulbert<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><ufc-follow-author-widget product=\"marketwatch\" author-id=\"124_MW\" author-name=\"Mark Hulbert\" signin-url=\"https:\/\/accounts.marketwatch.com\/login?target=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Fstory%2Fthis-could-be-the-missing-link-as-to-why-september-yet-again-is-hitting-stocks-hard-11663665359%3Frss%3D1%26siteid%3Drss\" panda-api=\"https:\/\/follow-api.marketwatch.com\"><\/ufc-follow-author-widget><\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-7125-D3874FE74D59%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;FA Center: This could be the missing link as to why September \u2014 yet again \u2014 is hitting stocks hard&#8221; Seasonal Affective Disorder starts to influence people\u2019s moods in September September appears to be the worst month for Seasonal Affective Disorder, which may be the missing link for why the month is so bad for&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":494549,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-581639\/social","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-494548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/494548","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=494548"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/494548\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/494549"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=494548"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=494548"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=494548"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}