{"id":504564,"date":"2022-10-29T00:22:52","date_gmt":"2022-10-28T21:22:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/who-will-win-the-midterms-ask-bettors-not-pollsters\/"},"modified":"2022-10-29T00:22:52","modified_gmt":"2022-10-28T21:22:52","slug":"who-will-win-the-midterms-ask-bettors-not-pollsters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/who-will-win-the-midterms-ask-bettors-not-pollsters\/","title":{"rendered":"#Who will win the midterms? Ask bettors, not pollsters"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a29aa748e86a\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a29aa748e86a\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/who-will-win-the-midterms-ask-bettors-not-pollsters\/#%E2%80%9CWho_will_win_the_midterms_Ask_bettors_not_pollsters%E2%80%9D\" >&#8220;Who will win the midterms? Ask bettors, not pollsters&#8221;<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9CWho_will_win_the_midterms_Ask_bettors_not_pollsters%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>&#8220;Who will win the midterms? Ask bettors, not pollsters&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div>\n<aside class=\"single__inline-module alignleft\">\n<\/aside>\n<p>Some pundits say that Democrats will win the midterms.<\/p>\n<p>MSNBC tells us, \u201cDemocrats are seeing momentum headed into midterms.\u201d House Speaker Nancy Pelosi claims, \u201cWe will hold the House by winning more seats!\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Really? Want to bet?<\/p>\n<p>This fall, CNN\u2019s Douglas Brinkley said, \u201cThere is a blue wave going on right now.\u201d\u00a0Michael Moore agreed: \u201cThere is going to be such a landslide\u201d of elected Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>At the time those predictions were made, people who bet on elections believed Republicans had better than a 70% chance of winning back the House.<\/p>\n<p>Whom should we trust?<\/p>\n<p>We can listen to:<br \/>No. 1: People who bet.<br \/>No. 2: The <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">media<\/a> pundits.<br \/>No. 3: Polls.<br \/>No. 4: Professional election forecasters.<\/p>\n<p>Among forecasters, Nate Silver has the best track record. Early this week, his FiveThirtyEight website gave Democrats a 55% chance to hold the Senate (it\u2019s since dipped down to 52%). The Economist\u2019s forecasters give Democrats even better odds.<\/p>\n<p>But I don\u2019t believe them.<\/p>\n<p>I believe the people who bet. <\/p>\n<p>At the moment, the bettors think <em>Republicans<\/em> have a 60% chance to win the Senate and an 88% chance to win the House.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/election-night-celebration-02.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"election balloons drop\" class=\"wp-image-24445824\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/election-night-celebration-02.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1535 1536w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/election-night-celebration-02.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all 1024w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/election-night-celebration-02.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=512 512w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><figcaption>According to one forecaster, Democrats have a 55% chance to hold the Senate. <\/figcaption><figcaption><span class=\"credit\">PATRICK T. FALLON\/AFP via Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>I take these numbers from ElectionBettingOdds.com, a site I helped start. StosselTV producer Maxim Lott averages predictions from betting sites around the world and converts them to easy-to-understand percentages.<\/p>\n<p>I trust those numbers more than other predictors because in the past, the bettors were right more often than anyone else.<\/p>\n<p>Bettors don\u2019t get everything right. In 2016, they, like most everyone else, thought Hillary Clinton would become president. A week before Election Day, she was a 75% favorite.<\/p>\n<p>But on Election Day, I saw how betting markets find the truth more quickly than others. Before the votes were counted, bettors were switching to Trump.<\/p>\n<p>On election night, it was fun to watch the silly people on TV. Even after bettors were switching, pundits still said that Hillary would win. \u201cTrump is more likely than not to lose,\u201d proclaimed Dana Bash on CNN.<\/p>\n<p>Only hours <em>after<\/em> the betting shifted did TV anchors finally adjust their predictions.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/sports-betting-02.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"Overjoyed man checking game results\" class=\"wp-image-24445826\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/sports-betting-02.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1535 1536w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/sports-betting-02.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all 1024w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/sports-betting-02.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=512 512w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><figcaption>ElectionBettingOdds.com is a site that grabs the average from betting sites around the world.<\/figcaption><figcaption><span class=\"credit\">Getty Images\/iStockphoto<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In 2020, bettors correctly predicted President Joe Biden\u2019s win and called nearly every state correctly.<\/p>\n<p>Over time, betting has been a better predictor than polls, pundits, statistical models and everything else. There\u2019s something about \u201cputting your money where your mouth is\u201d that focuses the mind.<\/p>\n<p>ElectionBettingOdds.com tracked hundreds of races. It turns out that when bettors think a candidate has a 63% chance, those candidates do win roughly 63% of the time.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/midterms-poll-01.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"A Republican suporter watches midterm election returns\" class=\"wp-image-24445825\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/midterms-poll-01.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1535 1536w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/midterms-poll-01.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all 1024w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/midterms-poll-01.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=512 512w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><figcaption>Elections are swiftly <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>roaching and bets are coming in from all sides, but who can we count on?<\/figcaption><figcaption><span class=\"credit\">Ralph Freso\/Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>One reason bettors predict more accurately is because bettors consider things polls and prediction models often miss.<\/p>\n<p>In 2016, Clinton-favoring polls overlooked people without college degrees. Polltakers were also misled by Trump supporters who refused to talk to them.<\/p>\n<p>Most betting markets, like FTX, Betfair, Smarkets and Polymarket, only allow non-Americans to bet. That\u2019s because uptight, narrow-minded American politicians banned gambling on elections.<\/p>\n<p>Fortunately, they made an exception for PredictIt.org. There, Americans are allowed to bet up to $850.<\/p>\n<p>Our foolish bureaucrats promise to shut PredictIt down, but for now, we can take advantage of the \u201cwisdom of the crowd\u201d that PredictIt provides.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/election-night-celebration-01.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"Balloons descend\" class=\"wp-image-24445823\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/election-night-celebration-01.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1535 1536w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/election-night-celebration-01.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all 1024w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/election-night-celebration-01.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=512 512w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><figcaption>In 2020, bettors correctly predicted President Joe Biden\u2019s win<\/figcaption><figcaption><span class=\"credit\">NICHOLAS KAMM\/AFP via Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Which party will win the Pennsylvania Senate race? Republican Mehmet Oz is favored, 54 cents to 49 cents.<\/p>\n<p>Who will be Arizona\u2019s next governor? Republican Kari Lake leads 82 cents to 22 cents.<\/p>\n<p>The first Cabinet member to quit? Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, at 32 cents. Then Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, at 21 cents.<\/p>\n<p>If you think you know more than the bettors, you can try to make money by betting at PredictIt.org. If you are not American, FTX, Betfair, Smarkets and Polymarket will take your bets. All this betting gives us valuable information about the likely future.<\/p>\n<p>Since betting markets are clearly superior predictors, I\u2019m surprised that anyone still pays attention to pundits. I no longer watch the blabbermouths on television.<\/p>\n<p>I check the odds at ElectionBettingOdds.com.<\/p>\n<p><em>John Stossel is the author of \u201cGive Me a Break: How I Exposed Hucksters, Cheats, and Scam Artists and Became the Scourge of the Liberal Media.\u201d<\/em>\n                        <\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2022\/10\/28\/who-will-win-the-midterms-ask-bettors-not-pollsters\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;Who will win the midterms? Ask bettors, not pollsters&#8221; Some pundits say that Democrats will win the midterms. MSNBC tells us, \u201cDemocrats are seeing momentum headed into midterms.\u201d House Speaker Nancy Pelosi claims, \u201cWe will hold the House by winning more seats!\u201d Really? Want to bet? This fall, CNN\u2019s Douglas Brinkley said, \u201cThere is a&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":504565,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/sports-betting-comp.jpg?quality=75&strip=all&w=1024","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[134733,73345,70288,134320,70468],"class_list":["post-504564","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-10-28-22","tag-bet","tag-elections","tag-midterm-elections-2022","tag-polls"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/504564","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=504564"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/504564\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/504565"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=504564"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=504564"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=504564"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}