{"id":506393,"date":"2022-11-03T23:34:54","date_gmt":"2022-11-03T20:34:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/optimistic-democrats-insist-the-polls-are-wrong\/"},"modified":"2022-11-03T23:34:54","modified_gmt":"2022-11-03T20:34:54","slug":"optimistic-democrats-insist-the-polls-are-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/optimistic-democrats-insist-the-polls-are-wrong\/","title":{"rendered":"#Optimistic Democrats insist the polls are wrong"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2e67218c9ad\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2e67218c9ad\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/optimistic-democrats-insist-the-polls-are-wrong\/#Optimistic_Democrats_insist_the_polls_are_wrong\" >Optimistic Democrats insist the polls are wrong<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Optimistic_Democrats_insist_the_polls_are_wrong\"><\/span>Optimistic Democrats insist the polls are wrong<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/obamabarack_11032022ap.jpg?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Every election has its holdouts who predict polling and conventional wisdom leading up to the big vote is way off. This year, the optimism caucus has to work overtime for Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>With less than a week to go until Election Day, most Democrats are bracing for potentially huge defeats \u2014 including losing one or both chambers of Congress \u2014 but some in the party aren\u2019t willing to concede anything just yet.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t believe the GOP is headed for any kind of a wave,\u201d said Angelo Cocchiaro, a Democratic Party activist based in Virginia. \u201cThe polls show tight races nationwide. I\u2019m expecting Dems [to] pick up a few seats in the Senate, and in the House,\u201d he added. \u201cA historically close result.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>What if, some Democrats are whispering, liberals are right about abortion rights being vastly underrepresented as a motivating factor for voters? What if the drop in gas prices goes a long way in swing states? What if there\u2019s record-setting turnout? What if Democrats\u2019 warnings about the fragility of democracy work in their favor?<\/p>\n<p>And what if, as President Biden preached from the Democratic National Committee last week, the polls he described as \u201call over the place\u201d offer a surprise ending: \u201cone more shift: Democrats ahead.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>These are the variables that keep some liberals hopeful with days to go.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Early voting is one of Democrats\u2019 strongest indications that things could go their way in some places. The party\u2019s turnout model was based for years, including in 2018, on convincing voters to show up on Tuesday each cycle. But that\u2019s notably changed.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This year, campaigns and party operatives have invested heavily into persuading people to vote before Nov. 8 \u2014 a tactical shift that some Democratic strategists say has already worked in their favor.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cWe rebuilt our politics this cycle. We were never an early-vote party. We were an Election Day party,\u201d said Simon Rosenberg, a veteran Democratic consultant. \u201cAnd now, this cycle, we have massive early-vote field operations all over the country. We\u2019ve never done that before.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The shift in <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>roach has prompted some Democrats and election forecasters to caution against the so-called \u201cred wave\u201d narrative that has caught on in the last stretch of the midterms.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen you get a big early vote, you get more turnout for your voters,\u201d Rosenberg said. \u201cThe Republicans\u2019 decision to not promote early vote was a mistake. Our embrace of the early vote gives us an advantage.\u201d<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>A <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/rpubs.com\/ElectProject\/early_vote_2022\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/rpubs.com\/ElectProject\/early_vote_2022\">voting tracker on Thursday said<\/a> that more than 32 million ballots have already been cast across the country.<\/p>\n<p>Some also point to Democrats\u2019 fundraising advantages in certain races. In New Hampshire, for example, Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) has massively outraised her GOP rival, retired Gen. Don Bolduc, according to the latest filings with the Federal Election Commission, allowing her to keep flooding the airwaves in the small but consequential state. Bolduc, meanwhile, has received renewed financial support from aligned Republican groups.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPutting money into campaigns is better than relying on outside groups,\u201d Rosenberg said. \u201cYou have stronger campaigns, stronger Election Day turnout.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>At this point, however, bullish Democrats are definitely going against the grain.<\/p>\n<p>Biden\u2019s job approval has been consistently low, hovering in the mid-40s, prompting nervous candidates to keep their distance from him on the campaign trail.<\/p>\n<p>Americans are keenly focused on the economy and feeling the pinch from inflation, forcing candidates to answer about their party\u2019s part in it.<\/p>\n<p>And many voters simply say the country is headed on the wrong track.<\/p>\n<p>History is also not on the party\u2019s side. Many Democrats have been depressed about what they expect to be poor prospects in the House, warning about defeats in redrawn districts and battlegrounds where they see Republicans gaining ground on issues such as crime and immigration, and in areas where voters prefer the GOP\u2019s handling of the economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re going to beat expectations,\u201d said Joe Caiazzo, a Democratic campaign strategist. \u201cHold [the] Senate, do well in governor races,\u201d\u00a0he said.<\/p>\n<p>The House, however, is \u201ca different story,\u201d he conceded.<\/p>\n<p>The Senate map has also started to concern the party in power. In several swing states, liberals who once cheered as waves of bad press washed over their opponents have become more cautious and muted in their enthusiasm.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In Wisconsin, progressives saw their nominee, Mandela Barnes, running close against Sen. Ron Johnson (R) for months, only to have him lag after being hit repeatedly on crime.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr5_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>In Georgia, Democrats were hopeful Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) would benefit from the bombshell reports that his opponent, anti-abortion football legend Herschel Walker, had previously encouraged and paid for abortions. But with many voters still undecided, it\u2019s unclear what impact it will have on the race.<\/p>\n<p>And in Arizona, Republicans got a pleasant surprise when a marginal libertarian candidate dropped out and endorsed Blake Masters, the GOP nominee, over Sen. Mark Kelly (D).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Of course, if the polls are wrong, they could just as easily be wrong in the opposite direction, actually underestimating the size of an eventual red wave.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>GOP election experts have pointed to former President Trump\u2019s surprise victory in 2016 and President Biden\u2019s narrow win in 2020 as evidence that Trump supporters and GOP voters can be underestimated in surveys.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr6_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>With so many unknowns, some Democrats are asking voters to ignore polls that can be wrong or subject to a multitude of errors, and instead just to simply show up at the ballot box.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cStop worrying about polls,\u201d tweeted Christina Reynolds, the vice president of communications at EMILY\u2019s List. \u201cThey are all based on guesses of turnout. So go get people to turn out. That\u2019s how we win.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Reynolds told The Hill it\u2019s important to give voters perspective about the nature of polls and the narratives around them.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI\u2019m just reminding people that polls are all based on pollsters making assumptions,\u201d she said. \u201cSo we can challenge the assumptions by turning out more of our people.\u201d<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr7_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Other Democrats have pointed to a rush of Republican-funded surveys this year, which can disproportionately skew aggregate averages when used alongside traditional independent polling outfits.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Both Democratic and Republican firms pour money into polling to provide voter data on key issues and constituencies. Individual candidates and campaigns also have their own pollsters to sample the public.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>But Democrats have been warning that Republicans\u2019 strategy to \u201cflood the zone\u201d with their own funded polls has created confusion about who\u2019s winning, particularly in key Senate races that are hard to decipher.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou can\u2019t look at the polling averages anymore,\u201d said Rosenberg, the Democratic consultant. \u201cI believe this is a close election and that no one knows what\u2019s going to happen. And I would still rather be us than them.\u201d\n<\/p><\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/3718434-optimistic-democrats-insist-the-polls-are-wrong\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Optimistic Democrats insist the polls are wrong Every election has its holdouts who predict polling and conventional wisdom leading up to the big vote is way off. This year, the optimism caucus has to work overtime for Democrats. With less than a week to go until Election Day, most Democrats are bracing for potentially huge&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":506394,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/obamabarack_11032022ap.jpg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[30889,134417,134343,134353,135056,134377,106184,115,135051,4965],"class_list":["post-506393","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-biden","tag-blog-briefing-room","tag-campaign","tag-court-battles","tag-don-bolduc","tag-herschel-walker","tag-maggie-hassan","tag-news","tag-overnight-cybersecurity","tag-technology"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/506393","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=506393"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/506393\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/506394"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=506393"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=506393"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=506393"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}