{"id":509454,"date":"2022-11-12T23:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-11-12T20:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/did-the-polls-get-it-wrong-again\/"},"modified":"2022-11-12T23:00:00","modified_gmt":"2022-11-12T20:00:00","slug":"did-the-polls-get-it-wrong-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/did-the-polls-get-it-wrong-again\/","title":{"rendered":"#Did the polls get it wrong again?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a216d2d2e0b3\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a216d2d2e0b3\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/did-the-polls-get-it-wrong-again\/#Did_the_polls_get_it_wrong_again\" >Did the polls get it wrong again?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Did_the_polls_get_it_wrong_again\"><\/span>Did the polls get it wrong again?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/voting_va_110822pa7_w.jpg?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>The Democrats\u2019 surprisingly strong showing in the midterm elections has raised a familiar question: Did the pollsters get it wrong again?<\/p>\n<p>Heading into Nov. 8, polls from across the industry gave Republicans the clear edge in battleground races, as well as on the generic ballot. The data bolstered the belief among pundits that a red wave was on the rise.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>But when that didn\u2019t h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>en, and Tuesday\u2019s red wave turned out to be a red ripple at best, it led to new scrutiny over an industry that has already faced criticism after big misses in 2016 and 2020.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAll those polls, God love them,\u201d President Biden quipped at a Democratic National Committee event on Thursday.\u00a0\u201cYou know, \u2018historic losses are on the way.\u00a0A giant red wave.\u2019\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Still, many pollsters are defending their profession, saying the surveys released in the months and weeks ahead of Election Day were more accurate than not.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOverall, it was definitely a good night for pollsters and I would, in particular, say traditional pollsters,\u201d said Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn those final weeks, a lot of polls from those credible, reputable, traditional pollsters were met with skepticism and\/or disbelief when they were showing better numbers for Democrats,\u201d she added.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In fact, a number of polls released in the final weeks of the election cycle seemed to accurately capture the dynamic on the ground, depicting races that were neck and neck. A FiveThirtyEight polling average in the final week showed Arizona Senate candidate Mark Kelly (D) ahead of his Republican rival Blake Masters by 1 point, for example, reflecting the closeness of the race but one that ultimately gave the Democrat an edge.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Nevada polls in the closing week tended to be more bullish for Republican Senate candidate Adam Laxalt, giving him a lead of 2 to 8 points depending on the survey. As of this writing, his race against Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) remains too close to call; though he holds a narrow lead over her, many Democrats are optimistic Cortez Masto will ultimately prevail.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a> accuracy of the traditional pollsters came in comparison to a number of right-leaning polls, most notably from the Trafalgar Group, showing Republican candidates with the momentum.\u00a0The outlet gained attention for being one of the only pollsters to show Trump\u2019s edge over then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016. But its recent round of surveys have come under scrutiny.<\/p>\n<p>In a Trafalgar survey of Pennsylvania\u2019s Senate race released on Nov. 4, former GOP Senate candidate Mehmet Oz led now Sen.-elect John Fetterman (D) by roughly 2 points. Fetterman ended up winning the race by roughly 4 points. In a late October poll of Washington State\u2019s Senate race, the pollster had Republican Tiffany Smiley trailing incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D) by a little more than 1 point. Murray ended up defeating Smiley by roughly 12 points.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Pollsters argue that outliers happen and caution that polls are meant to be a snapshot in time, not a prediction.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThey are not meant to predict or be crystal balls,\u201d Koning said. \u201cThey are meant to much more so explain the how and why of voters and their feelings and their attitudes and behaviors.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Skepticism in polls reached a fever pitch in 2016 when Trump\u2019s victory pulled the rug out from those in the <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">media<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s okay to have an outlier. Everyone\u2019s going to have one,\u201d Spencer Kimball, the director of Emerson College Polling,\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=jFGLfNT0Qy8\">told HillTV\u2019s \u201cWhat America\u2019s Thinking.\u201d\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat we don\u2019t want is a systematic experience and that\u2019s what we saw in 2016,\u201d he continued. \u201cThe bias was systematic toward Hillary Clinton. Every poll that was wrong was wrong in her favor, and so that\u2019s a problem of the industry.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Democratic pollster Celinda Lake argued that the \u201cflooding of the zone\u201d with Republican-leaning polls in 2022 was part of a broader strategy to boost GOP morale, money and turnout in the final weeks and days of the cycle.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think that the media is going to have to have new standards for covering new polls and not allow that to happen,\u201d she told The Hill.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Lake said the strategy has impacted aggregators, which often average a number of polls conducted by different organizations.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe never anticipated a deliberate flooding of the zone with polls that would show you in the lead,\u201d Lake said. \u201cThey\u2019re going to have to balance aggregation with \u2018okay we\u2019re going to use this many Republican-leaning polls and this many Democratic-leaning polls\u2019 or something.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Lake also noted that the <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a> media and political pundits could have paid more attention to early vote turnout, which often plays in Democrats\u2019 favor.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn this case, we were seeing some surge in the early vote but the pundits were really discounting it and they shouldn\u2019t have been,\u201d she said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>One Republican pollster told The Hill that some pollsters did not pick up on factors like the Democratic fundraising advantage, abortion\u2019s strength as an issue and Trump\u2019s impact on voters.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr5_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cWhat I don\u2019t think we captured as well as an industry was some of the movement in the close,\u201d the GOP pollster said. \u201cI think the night looked a lot more like what we expected it to in August than we expected it to in October.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The pollster said the two toss-up groups they were focused on throughout the cycle were college-educated men and women without college degrees.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThose three things combined in a way that left those two groups more swingy, whereas I think in September the stock market movement was pushing college-educated men toward Republicans,\u201d the GOP pollster said. \u201cWomen without college degrees cared very much about abortion rights and about the economy because they were being very directly impacted.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Ultimately though, most pollsters and experts say the majority of polls leading up to the midterms did not completely miss the mark.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr6_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cThis was kind of one of our first pandemic era, normal elections that we could have had and could have tested this out and I think pollsters met the challenge,\u201d Koning said.\u00a0\u00a0\n<\/p><\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/3731665-did-the-polls-get-it-wrong-again\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Did the polls get it wrong again? The Democrats\u2019 surprisingly strong showing in the midterm elections has raised a familiar question: Did the pollsters get it wrong again? Heading into Nov. 8, polls from across the industry gave Republicans the clear edge in battleground races, as well as on the generic ballot. The data bolstered&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":509455,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/voting_va_110822pa7_w.jpg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[135363,134344,30889,134343,134374,135488,134418,72944,124783,134350,134379,70468,134345,4965],"class_list":["post-509454","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-adam-laxalt","tag-administration","tag-biden","tag-campaign","tag-catherine-cortez-masto","tag-celinda-lake","tag-congress-blog","tag-hillary-clinton","tag-international","tag-mehmet-oz","tag-midterms","tag-polls","tag-state-watch","tag-technology"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/509454","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=509454"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/509454\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/509455"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=509454"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=509454"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=509454"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}