{"id":511073,"date":"2022-11-17T00:24:49","date_gmt":"2022-11-16T21:24:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/2022-midterm-results-disappointed-gop-but-were-good-for-stocks\/"},"modified":"2022-11-17T00:24:49","modified_gmt":"2022-11-16T21:24:49","slug":"2022-midterm-results-disappointed-gop-but-were-good-for-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/2022-midterm-results-disappointed-gop-but-were-good-for-stocks\/","title":{"rendered":"#2022 midterm results disappointed GOP \u2014 but were good for stocks"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a40702c1f2f1\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a40702c1f2f1\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/2022-midterm-results-disappointed-gop-but-were-good-for-stocks\/#%E2%80%9C2022_midterm_results_disappointed_GOP_%E2%80%94_but_were_good_for_stocks%E2%80%9D\" >&#8220;2022 midterm results disappointed GOP \u2014 but were good for stocks&#8221;<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9C2022_midterm_results_disappointed_GOP_%E2%80%94_but_were_good_for_stocks%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>&#8220;2022 midterm results disappointed GOP \u2014 but were good for stocks&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div>\n<aside class=\"single__inline-module alignleft\">\n        <\/aside>\n<p>It was a dis<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ointing election season for Republicans, but it was great for stocks \u2014 with the Dow up more than 1,100 points since last Tuesday\u2019s poll results. <\/p>\n<p>This shouldn\u2019t have been a surprise. Said simply: In good times and bad, US midterm elections are the most consistently profitable periods in stock market history. Since 1925, the nine months starting Oct. 1 in a midterm election year and extending into the first half of the following year saw the S&amp;P 500 go negative just twice \u2014 the last as World War II started \u2014 and with overall 19.5% average returns.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The trend endures through the entire third year of US presidents\u2019 terms, which also haven\u2019t been negative for the S&amp;P since 1939 \u2014 and then only off 0.9%.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ve long called it the \u201cMidterm Miracle.\u201d It works.\u00a0Why? Because the president\u2019s party nearly always loses at least some power to the opposition in midterms. That in turn forces the president\u2019s party to attempt the biggest, most controversial legislation it can hope for before the midterms.\u00a0Democrats did it big-time with their mega bills in 2020 and 2021.\u00a0They always do.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"589\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/midterm-chart.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-24679171\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/midterm-chart.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1535 1536w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/midterm-chart.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all 1024w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/midterm-chart.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=512 512w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><figcaption><span class=\"credit\">S&amp;P 500<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/traders-25.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"Stock traders\" class=\"wp-image-24677960\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/traders-25.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1535 1536w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/traders-25.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all 1024w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/traders-25.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=512 512w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><figcaption>Since 1925, the nine months starting Oct. 1 in a midterm election year and extending into the first half of the following year saw the S&amp;P 500 go negative just twice \u2014 the last as World War II started. <\/figcaption><figcaption><span class=\"credit\">Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Big, controversial legislation always creates winners and losers whether through taxes, regulation, property rights \u2014 whatever. That gets the losers riled and fearful of more to come. You may have noticed that this year.<\/p>\n<p>Behavioral economists Richard Thaler and Shlomo Bernartzi documented decades ago that normal Americans hate losses two and a half times as much as they love gains. After midterms, rhetoric remains but legislation quiets. Political risk falls and demand for speculative assets rises. <\/p>\n<p>Hence, the \u2018Miracle\u2019 \u2014 which no one ever believes because they think if their side loses, the country loses.\u00a0It works because no one sees it coming.\u00a0 <\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/traders-17.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"US Capitol building\" class=\"wp-image-24678019\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/traders-17.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1535 1536w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/traders-17.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all 1024w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/traders-17.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=512 512w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><figcaption>The president\u2019s party nearly always loses at least some power to the opposition in midterms. <\/figcaption><figcaption><span class=\"credit\">AFP via Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/traders-13.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"Stock traders in 2000.\" class=\"wp-image-24678057\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/traders-13.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1535 1536w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/traders-13.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all 1024w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/traders-13.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=512 512w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><figcaption>Behavioral economists Richard Thaler and Shlomo Bernartzi documented decades ago that normal Americans hate losses two and a half times as much as they love gains.<\/figcaption><figcaption><span class=\"credit\">Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>GOP won formal control of the House on Wednesday night, gaining the needed 218 seats \u2014 and is leading in three other races. That gets us to 221 of the House\u2019s 435 seats. In other words, hardcore gridlock.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps you think the \u2018Miracle\u2019 won\u2019t work with such a slim majority \u2014 that Democrats carving off a few votes here and there can pass their bills. Nevertheless, whichever party controls the House or Senate 100% controls what can be voted upon.\u00a0It\u2019s why gridlock works legislatively, creating the calming effect.<\/p>\n<p>The \u2018Miracle\u2019 also works overseas. The largest European stock indexes have never been negative during the US midterms. European investors, it turns out, are even more loss averse than Americans yet highly attuned to our politics.\u00a0Long ago Meir Statman and I duplicated the Thaler\/Bernartzi methodology with European data to show their higher risk aversion. But the correlation is consistently high during the \u2018Miracle\u2019 regardless of cause.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/traders-23.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 sign\" class=\"wp-image-24678080\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/traders-23.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1535 1536w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/traders-23.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all 1024w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/traders-23.jpg?quality=75&amp;strip=all&amp;w=512 512w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><figcaption>The third year of presidents\u2019 terms also haven\u2019t been negative for the S&amp;P since 1939. <\/figcaption><figcaption><span class=\"credit\">dpa\/picture alliance via Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>It also makes sense this way: With gridlock, businesses get a few years of relative calm when it comes to regulation and taxes, hence a longer horizon for planning and capital investment. <\/p>\n<p>My half-century experience as an investment professional also has taught me individual investors are about two-thirds more conservative than leftist.\u00a0 Gridlock guards against leftist legislation, calming conservative investors. This election may not have been what you wanted.\u00a0 But it gives you a stock market you will like.<\/p>\n<p><em>Ken Fisher is the Founder and Executive Chairman of Fisher Investments, four times\u00a0New York Times\u00a0bestselling author, and regular columnist in 17 countries globally.<\/em>\n                        <\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2022\/11\/16\/2022-midterm-results-disappointed-gop-but-were-good-for-stocks\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;2022 midterm results disappointed GOP \u2014 but were good for stocks&#8221; It was a disappointing election season for Republicans, but it was great for stocks \u2014 with the Dow up more than 1,100 points since last Tuesday\u2019s poll results. This shouldn\u2019t have been a surprise. Said simply: In good times and bad, US midterm elections&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":511074,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/traders-25.jpg?quality=75&strip=all&w=1024","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[135628,73977,106767,80348,72388,70359],"class_list":["post-511073","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-11-16-22","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-midterm-elections","tag-sp-500","tag-stock-market","tag-stocks"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/511073","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=511073"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/511073\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/511074"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=511073"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=511073"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=511073"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}