{"id":514284,"date":"2022-11-22T23:15:00","date_gmt":"2022-11-22T20:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/ethereum-bears-have-the-upper-hand-according-to-derivatives-data-but-for-how-long\/"},"modified":"2022-11-22T23:15:00","modified_gmt":"2022-11-22T20:15:00","slug":"ethereum-bears-have-the-upper-hand-according-to-derivatives-data-but-for-how-long","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/ethereum-bears-have-the-upper-hand-according-to-derivatives-data-but-for-how-long\/","title":{"rendered":"# Ethereum bears have the upper hand according to derivatives data, but for how long?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3bbffcbc2ac\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3bbffcbc2ac\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/ethereum-bears-have-the-upper-hand-according-to-derivatives-data-but-for-how-long\/#%E2%80%9D_Ethereum_bears_have_the_upper_hand_according_to_derivatives_data_but_for_how_long_%E2%80%9C\" >&#8221; Ethereum bears have the upper hand according to derivatives data, but for how long? &#8220;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/ethereum-bears-have-the-upper-hand-according-to-derivatives-data-but-for-how-long\/#Pro_traders_have_been_in_panic_mode_since_Nov_10\" >Pro traders have been in panic mode since Nov. 10<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/ethereum-bears-have-the-upper-hand-according-to-derivatives-data-but-for-how-long\/#Options_traders_fear_additional_crashes\" >Options traders fear additional crashes<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9D_Ethereum_bears_have_the_upper_hand_according_to_derivatives_data_but_for_how_long_%E2%80%9C\"><\/span>&#8221; Ethereum bears have the upper hand according to derivatives data, but for how long? &#8220;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-5129e2ea>Ether (ETH) price experienced an 11.9% decline from Nov. 20 to Nov. 22, bottoming at $1,074 \u2014 the lowest level seen since July. Currently, investors have reason to be concerned after crypto lending company Genesis reportedly faced difficulties raising money, triggering rumors of insolvency on Nov. 21.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>However, a spokesperson for Genesis told Cointelegraph that there were no plans for imminent bankruptcy because the company continues to hold discussions with its creditors. <\/p>\n<p>Unease about the centralization of decentralized finance (DeFi) surfaced after Uniswap Labs changed the privacy policy on Nov. 17, revealing that it collects publicly-available blockchain data, users&#8217; browser information, operating systems data and interactions with its service providers.<\/p>\n<p>Adding to the fracas, the hacker behind the FTX exchange theft of $447 million has been spotted moving their Ether funds. On Nov. 20, the attacker transferred 50,000 ETH to a separate wallet and converted it to Bitcoin using two renBTC bridges. <\/p>\n<p>Traders fear that the hacker might be suppressing Ether&#8217;s price to profit using leveraged short bets. The rumor was raised by @kundunsan on Nov. 15, even though the <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Twitter<\/a> post did not gain exposure.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Unpopular opinion:<br \/>SBF is the hacker and already shorted market heavy and collecting all stolen assets into <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24ETH&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$ETH<\/a><br \/>Finally he\u2019ll dump huge ETH bag to more profit his short positions.<br \/>He\u2019s still rubbing us, unbelievable. <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CYJmOSgwXO\">https:\/\/t.co\/CYJmOSgwXO<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Dervish  (@kundunsan) <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/kundunsan\/status\/1592460728942096385?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 15, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>Let&#8217;s look at Ether derivatives data to understand if the worsening market conditions have impacted crypto investors&#8217; sentiment.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Pro_traders_have_been_in_panic_mode_since_Nov_10\"><\/span>Pro traders have been in panic mode since Nov. 10<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets, but they are professional traders&#8217; preferred instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates that often occurs in a perpetual futures contract.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-11\/71ae259c-3141-417f-b769-7f16cdf72262.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Ether 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The three-month futures annualized premium should trade between +4% to +8% in healthy markets to cover costs and associated risks. The chart above shows that derivatives traders have been bearish since Nov. 10 since the Ether futures premium was negative.<\/p>\n<p>Currently there is backwardation in the contracts and this situation is atypical and usually deemed bearish. The metric did not improve after ETH rallied 5% on Nov. 22, reflecting professional traders&#8217; unwillingness to add leveraged long (bull) positions.<\/p>\n<p>Traders should also analyze Ether&#8217;s options markets to exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Options_traders_fear_additional_crashes\"><\/span>Options traders fear additional crashes<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.<\/p>\n<p>In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 10%. On the other hand, bullish markets tend to drive the skew indicator below -10%, meaning the bearish put options are discounted.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-11\/12de82eb-dd8a-4649-9a4b-4f053901bdde.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Ether 60-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The delta skew has been above the 10% threshold since Nov. 9, signaling that options traders were less inclined to offer downside protection. The situation worsened over the following days as the delta skew indicator surged above 20%.<\/p>\n<p>The 60-day delta skew currently stands at 23%, so whales and market makers are pricing higher odds of price dumps for Ether. Consequently, derivatives data shows low confidence right as Ether struggles to hold the $1,100 support.<\/p>\n<p>According to the data, Ether bulls should not throw in the towel just yet because these metrics tend to be backward-looking. The panic that followed FTX&#8217;s bankruptcy and the subsequent liquidity issues at Genesis might dissipate quickly if exchanges public proof of reserves and institutional investors addingBitcoin exposure during the dip are interpreted as positives by market participants. <\/p>\n<p>With that said, at the moment Ether bears still have the upper hand according to ETH derivatives metrics.<\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors\u2019 alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/ethereum-bears-have-the-upper-hand-according-to-derivatives-data-but-for-how-long\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8221; Ethereum bears have the upper hand according to derivatives data, but for how long? &#8220; Ether (ETH) price experienced an 11.9% decline from Nov. 20 to Nov. 22, bottoming at $1,074 \u2014 the lowest level seen since July. Currently, investors have reason to be concerned after crypto lending company Genesis reportedly faced difficulties raising&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":514285,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/1200_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjItMTEvYmI5ZTY5YmUtNTk2OC00ZTdlLThhZGYtY2JjZGMxYmQzN2I5LmpwZw==.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74867,74863,75012,82402,74891,81210,74938,75846,76550,74939,88700,73785],"class_list":["post-514284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-altcoin","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-derivatives","tag-ether-price","tag-ethereum","tag-ethereum-options","tag-ethereum-price","tag-futures","tag-grayscale","tag-market-analysis","tag-uniswap","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/514284","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=514284"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/514284\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/514285"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=514284"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=514284"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=514284"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}