{"id":529808,"date":"2022-12-20T23:55:05","date_gmt":"2022-12-20T20:55:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/4-legislative-predictions-for-crypto-in-2023\/"},"modified":"2022-12-20T23:55:05","modified_gmt":"2022-12-20T20:55:05","slug":"4-legislative-predictions-for-crypto-in-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/4-legislative-predictions-for-crypto-in-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"# 4 legislative predictions for crypto in 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a24c154f1dd4\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a24c154f1dd4\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/4-legislative-predictions-for-crypto-in-2023\/#%E2%80%9D_4_legislative_predictions_for_crypto_in_2023_%E2%80%9C\" >&#8221; 4 legislative predictions for crypto in 2023 &#8220;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/4-legislative-predictions-for-crypto-in-2023\/#Few_legislative_changes\" >Few legislative changes<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/4-legislative-predictions-for-crypto-in-2023\/#The_Securities_and_Exchange_Commission_may_win_some_litigation\" >The Securities and Exchange Commission may win some litigation<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/4-legislative-predictions-for-crypto-in-2023\/#2023_is_the_year_that_crypto_users_wake_up_to_the_need_for_privacy\" >2023 is the year that crypto users wake up to the need for privacy<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/4-legislative-predictions-for-crypto-in-2023\/#Between_the_United_States_and_European_Union_both_may_lose\" >Between the United States and European Union, both may lose<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9D_4_legislative_predictions_for_crypto_in_2023_%E2%80%9C\"><\/span>&#8221; 4 legislative predictions for crypto in 2023 &#8220;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/840_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjItMDcvZWM1ZTJjMjMtODM1Yi00OWIxLTg3ZTAtZTY5OGM3MGFhNzU0LmpwZw==.jpg\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-30a6cf80>If you saw the returns in my crypto portfolio this year, you would take a pass on my predictions for the direction of the cryptocurrency market. So, I will stick to what I know and share some regulatory predictions for the crypto industry.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Few_legislative_changes\"><\/span>Few legislative changes<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>A few minor victories will logroll small legislative fixes into \u201cmust pass\u201d bills like the defense authorization or omnibus spending bills. The top candidate would be a <em>de minimis<\/em> exemption for smaller crypto transactions to exempt users from capital gains tax liability every time they purchase a coffee with crypto. The protection for noncustodial crypto providers in Republican Representative Tom Emmer\u2019s bill might make it in as well. On the outside, a bipartisan stablecoin bill may be possible, though Senate Democrats are still a steep climb. But do not expect major bills \u2014 such as Lummis-Gillibrand or Boozman-Stabenow \u2014 to pass during the next Congress.<\/p>\n<p>Crypto advocates in Washington have made a <em>lot<\/em> of progress this year. No one could have predicted in 2018 or even 2020 that two United States senators \u2014 Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis \u2014 would <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ear at multiple crypto conferences in 2022 touting a bill they wrote to provide regulatory clarity.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Related: <\/em><\/strong><strong><em>Sen. Lummis: My proposal with Sen. Gillibrand empowers the SEC to protect consumers<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bills like Lummis-Gillibrand and Boozman-Stabenow are a great start to the conversation, but tempered expectations are warranted, as neither bill will pass the next Congress. Consider the thin history of recent comprehensive financial services legislation in the United States. Since the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 \u2014 a bill that included ideas from Democratic lawmakers floated as far back as the 1990s \u2014 no major financial services legislation has passed Congress.<\/p>\n<p>Crypto advocates should continue their work but assume that barely any legislation will fit through the thin Overton window between Democratic Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, who is flirting with banning crypto, and incoming House Majority Whip Emmer, who articulates the case for decentralized finance (DeFi) like a true crypto native.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Securities_and_Exchange_Commission_may_win_some_litigation\"><\/span>The Securities and Exchange Commission may win some litigation<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>While I remain hopeful that Ripple will ultimately win its case against the Securities and Exchange Commission, the odds are against it in district court. The precedent for the test the SEC is using against Ripple, the Howey test for investment contracts, is flexible. Historically, the SEC never brought cases under the Howey test against investment opportunities it actually wanted to register but instead used it as a cudgel against real frauds \u2014 and so appellate judges gave the SEC the benefit of the doubt.<\/p>\n<p>If Ripple goes all the way to the Supreme Court, and if the justices are as eager in their case to peel back administrative agency discretion as they were in a recent defeat for the Environmental Protection Agency under the \u201cmajor questions doctrine,\u201d Ripple has a shot at changing the <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/game\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" title=\"Game\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">game<\/a> and ultimately winning its epic fight against the SEC.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"2023_is_the_year_that_crypto_users_wake_up_to_the_need_for_privacy\"><\/span>2023 is the year that crypto users wake up to the need for privacy<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>A Cambrian explosion is coming in crypto privacy as the government\u2019s surveillance efforts pick up steam.<\/p>\n<p>Crypto privacy in the United States is under sustained assault. We may have dodged the bullet of Know Your Customer (KYC) laws applied to private wallets for now, but we still face massive threats to privacy. For example, the Treasury Department this year sanctioned the only functional tool on Ethereum for complete privacy \u2014 Tornado Cash.<\/p>\n<p>CoinJoin and Samourai Wallet do a good job of masking transaction history for the sophisticated Bitcoin (BTC) user. Leading crypto privacy coins like Zcash (ZEC) and Monero (XMR) offer different approaches to the tradeoff of privacy\/convenience right now. (Zcash offers optimal privacy in asset and transaction shielding and is working on historical challenges to ease of use, while Monero is more vulnerable to statistical tracing but has achieved wider adoption.)<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Related: <\/em><\/strong><strong><em>The Federal Reserve\u2019s pursuit of a \u2018reverse wealth effect\u2019 is undermining crypto<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Privacy is still, nevertheless, treated as a niche idea in crypto. Millions of users of Bitcoin, Ethereum and other chains are blithely unaware of the surveillance possible on their transactions.<\/p>\n<p>Those who sold the top in 2021 but didn\u2019t go through the painstaking process of netting the capital gains owed will soon learn about the thousands of new Internal Revenue Service agents being trained in how to use simple block explorers and more sophisticated Chainalysis tools.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Between_the_United_States_and_European_Union_both_may_lose\"><\/span>Between the United States and European Union, both may lose<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The European Union\u2019s approach to new token launches appears to be more reasonable than that of the United States, with a light whitepaper-based disclosure approach. Yet its aggressive approach to private wallet surveillance threatens user privacy as exchanges are forced to KYC personal wallets. <\/p>\n<p>The U.S. has a chance to compete with Europe on crypto development if it can better rationalize rules for centralized crypto entities \u2014 while leaving true DeFi alone \u2014 that are workable and ignore voices such as Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, who would use KYC rules to effectively destroy crypto. <\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s too soon to predict which way that will go, but I can predict it will be an exciting year for crypto regulation!<\/p>\n<div>\n<div style=\"background: rgb(239, 239, 239); border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 10px;\"><strong>J. W. Verret<\/strong> is an associate professor at George Mason University\u2019s Antonin Scalia Law School. He is a practicing crypto forensic accountant and also practices securities law at Lawrence Law LLC. He is a member of the Financial Accounting Standards Board\u2019s Advisory Council, a member of the Zcash Foundation\u2019s board of directors and a former member of the SEC Investor Advisory Committee. He also leads the Crypto Freedom Lab, a think tank fighting for policy change to preserve freedom and privacy for crypto developers and users.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\"><em>This article is for <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a> information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author\u2019s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. 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So, I will stick to what I know and share some regulatory predictions for the crypto industry. Few legislative changes&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":529809,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=1200\/https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2022-07\/ec5e2c23-835b-49b1-87e0-e698c70aa754.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74858,74863,74898,52214,55229,72692,70934,70289,67874,8575],"class_list":["post-529808","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bitcoin-regulation","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-sec","tag-congress","tag-law","tag-legislation","tag-regulation","tag-senate","tag-united-states","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/529808","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=529808"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/529808\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/529809"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=529808"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=529808"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=529808"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}