{"id":529993,"date":"2022-12-21T18:51:09","date_gmt":"2022-12-21T15:51:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/why-belarus-matters-for-the-russia-ukraine-war\/"},"modified":"2022-12-21T18:51:09","modified_gmt":"2022-12-21T15:51:09","slug":"why-belarus-matters-for-the-russia-ukraine-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/why-belarus-matters-for-the-russia-ukraine-war\/","title":{"rendered":"#Why Belarus matters for the Russia-Ukraine war"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a37a584c9964\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a37a584c9964\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/why-belarus-matters-for-the-russia-ukraine-war\/#Why_Belarus_matters_for_the_Russia-Ukraine_war\" >Why Belarus matters for the Russia-Ukraine war<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_Belarus_matters_for_the_Russia-Ukraine_war\"><\/span>Why Belarus matters for the Russia-Ukraine war<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/12\/putinvladimir_lukashenkoalexander_russia_belarus_121922_Pavel-Bednyakov-Sputnik-Kremlin-Pool-Photo-via-AP.jpeg?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s visit to Belarus this week escalated concerns that he is seeking to drag the country into his war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>Both Russia and Ukraine have acknowledged they are expecting a long fight, and Putin\u2019s high-profile <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/trip-and-travel\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"10\" title=\"Trip &amp; Travel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">trip<\/a> to Minsk to meet Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko underscored the country\u2019s role as a border state to both countries.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Analysts said Russia may actually try and push Belarus into the war, or it could merely be using the threat of the country\u2019s involvement to spook western nations and Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>David Marples, a professor at the Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies with the University of Alberta, said Putin likely increased pressure on Lukashenko to commit forces in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLukashenko has been resisting that ever since the war began,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Marples said the visit was especially significant because Putin \u201cnever bothered going\u201d to Minsk in the past three years, including during turmoil in Belarus in 2020.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNow Lukashenko has a little bit more leeway because Russia needs him as well,\u201d he said, adding the Belarusian leader \u201cmay ultimately try to make some deal that would allow him to stay in power and keep a sovereign state and then perhaps commit troops.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>At a Monday press conference with Lukashenko, Putin said the leaders reviewed defense issues and \u201cagreed to continue taking all necessary measures to ensure the security of our countries.\u201d<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Those include the continuance of joint drills and training as well as a new effort equipping Belarusian air force crews with \u201cspecial warheads.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThese coordinated measures are extremely important in view of the tensions at the external borders of the Union State,\u201d Putin said, referring to Russia and Belarus.<\/p>\n<p>Russia used Belarus as a staging ground early in the war. Since then, Russia has trained troops in Belarus, conducted joint drills with the Belarusian army and fired missiles into Ukraine from the country as part of a wave of rocket strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and energy grids.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Experts say Lukashenko is unlikely to send troops to Ukraine at the moment, largely because it would be a deeply unpopular move at home, where he recently fended off an uprising against his regime after the 2020 election.<\/p>\n<p>A Chatham House poll in August found more than 90 percent of Belarus was against joining the war on the side of Russia. Around 27 percent in the poll supported complete neutrality in the war.<\/p>\n<p>A Belarusian rebel brigade is also fighting for Ukrainian independence, so the Belarus army could end up clashing with its own people if it enters Ukraine.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>It\u2019s also unlikely that Belarus could change the tide of the war in Russia\u2019s favor. As a much smaller nation than both Ukraine and Russia, it only has around 10,000 troops to readily commit.<\/p>\n<p>The threat from Belarus alone is already a significant deterrence to Ukraine, said Mark Galeotti, the executive director of consulting firm Mayak Intelligence.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe irony is Belarus is more useful as a threat than a military ally,\u201d Galeotti said in an interview, saying the Belarusian army would get \u201cchewed up\u201d by Ukrainian forces. \u201cIt\u2019s more about keeping Ukrainians worried. The threat can do that without needing to carry through with it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The International Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Putin\u2019s meeting in Minsk was part of an ongoing Russian information operation to convince Ukraine and the west that Belarus would join the war effort.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Kremlin likely seeks to convince the West to accept a false fait accompli that Ukraine cannot materially alter the current front lines and that the war is effectively stalemated,\u201d George Barros, a Russian analyst, told The Hill.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cISW assesses that such a conclusion is inaccurate and that Ukraine stands a good chance of regaining considerable critical terrain in the coming months.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Russia has faced heavy losses in Ukraine but Putin has continually doubled on the war, earlier this year mobilizing hundreds of thousands of reservists who are now starting to reinforce Moscow\u2019s army.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Because of aggressive western sanctions, Belarus heavily relies on Russia for its economy, including for gas and product exports.<\/p>\n<p>The European Council on Foreign Relations said in an October blog post that Belarus may at some point decide the cost of not joining the war effort outweighs the cost of joining.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr5_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Belarus also <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ears to be slowly conceding to Russia\u2019s push to establish military and political dominance over the country, said the ISW.<\/p>\n<p>On Monday, Lukashenko said he placed on combat alert an S-400 air defense system he received from Russia, a defense system the Belarusian leader rejected in 2020.<\/p>\n<p>Barros from the ISW said that indicated Lukashenko\u2019s \u201cmaneuvering space to resist Russian efforts to absorb Belarus is decreasing.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>However, Marples said Russia needs to prove that joining the war would not be a losing proposition for the embattled Belarusian leader.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr6_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cI think he would like to see Russia do a little bit better in the war than they are so far before he did that, because no one wants to join a side that\u2019s going to lose,\u201d he said.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Marples said Putin is desperate for help and that a Belarusian commitment in Ukraine would ease up pressure on its own troops, some of whom have deserted.\u00a0 Russia has also seen some protests at home after Putin\u2019s partial mobilization order.<\/p>\n<p>Belarus would also help by creating a threat from the north to potentially divert Ukrainian forces, who are fighting primarily in the southern and eastern region of Ukraine against invading Russian troops.<\/p>\n<p>But Galeotti said Putin has grown much weaker on the international stage since the war began and that heading into the Minsk meeting, Lukashenko had some leverage.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr7_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Ahead of the meeting with Putin, Lukashenko reaffirmed that Belarus was an independent nation and that Russia was not controlling the country, refuting what he called \u201cwhispers\u201d in Belarus.<\/p>\n<p>At the press conference with Putin, Lukashenko was asked by a reporter about suggestions that Belarus was being \u201cabsorbed\u201d by Russia, noting the many meetings the leaders have held in the past year.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cToday, they will claim that Putin has arrived in order to scare someone here,\u201d Lukashenko answered.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou know, the two of us are co-aggressors, the meanest, most toxic people on this planet. The only issue we have between us is to determine who is bigger,\u201d he added.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPresident Putin tells me that I am, but I am beginning to think that he is. So we decided to stick together, as equals, and that\u2019s it.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/policy\/defense\/3783470-why-belarus-matters-for-the-russia-ukraine-war\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Why Belarus matters for the Russia-Ukraine war Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s visit to Belarus this week escalated concerns that he is seeking to drag the country into his war in Ukraine. Both Russia and Ukraine have acknowledged they are expecting a long fight, and Putin\u2019s high-profile trip to Minsk to meet Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":529994,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/12\/putinvladimir_lukashenkoalexander_russia_belarus_121922_Pavel-Bednyakov-Sputnik-Kremlin-Pool-Photo-via-AP.jpeg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[134344,137584,74257,134343,73798,134420,124783,134438,134904,73234],"class_list":["post-529993","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-administration","tag-alexander-lukashenko","tag-belarus","tag-campaign","tag-defense","tag-equilibrium-sustainability","tag-international","tag-prevention-cures","tag-russia-ukraine-war","tag-vladimir-putin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/529993","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=529993"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/529993\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/529994"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=529993"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=529993"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=529993"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}