{"id":537419,"date":"2023-01-08T22:19:00","date_gmt":"2023-01-08T19:19:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/globalization-is-not-dead-but-it-is-facing-a-big-tail-risk-expert-says\/"},"modified":"2023-01-08T22:19:00","modified_gmt":"2023-01-08T19:19:00","slug":"globalization-is-not-dead-but-it-is-facing-a-big-tail-risk-expert-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/globalization-is-not-dead-but-it-is-facing-a-big-tail-risk-expert-says\/","title":{"rendered":"#: Globalization is not dead, but it is facing a big tail-risk, expert says"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a33bddfd8207\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a33bddfd8207\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/globalization-is-not-dead-but-it-is-facing-a-big-tail-risk-expert-says\/#%E2%80%9C_Globalization_is_not_dead_but_it_is_facing_a_big_tail-risk_expert_says%E2%80%9D\" >&#8220;: Globalization is not dead, but it is facing a big tail-risk, expert says&#8221;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/globalization-is-not-dead-but-it-is-facing-a-big-tail-risk-expert-says\/#Greg_Robb\" >Greg Robb<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9C_Globalization_is_not_dead_but_it_is_facing_a_big_tail-risk_expert_says%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>&#8220;: Globalization is not dead, but it is facing a big tail-risk, expert says&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\">\n<\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div class=\"article__side\">\n<div class=\"container--sticky not-active\">\n<div id=\"cx-next\" data-nosnippet>\n              <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap crawler\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0001544707\" role=\"document\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-layout=\"\n                inline\" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetArticleReader\n              \n              inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetArticleReader\n              article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"media-object-article-reader\">\n<div class=\"audioplayer\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0001544707\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"Listen to Article\" tabindex=\"-1\" id=\"articlereader\" data-show-title=\"false\" data-theme=\"wsj-article-reader\" data-show-header=\"false\" data-show-subscribe=\"false\" data-ads-enabled=\"true\" data-save-publication=\"false\">\n        <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       Reports that globalization is dead are overstated, a top economist said.<\/p>\n<p> Conventional wisdom has it that globalization will suffer in the aftermath of the pandemic and Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine. The Biden White House\u2019s move to reshore manufacturing and to deny China access to advanced technologies are seen as further steps away from a robust global trade system.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n       However, Barry Eichengreen, an economic professor at the University of California Berkeley said that that all this remains a theory not a reality on the ground.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cGlobal value chains evolve slowly and gradually,\u201d Eichengreen said in a talk at the American Economics Association meeting in New Orleans, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/about-aea\/honors-awards\/distinguished-fellows\/barry-eichengreen#:~:text=Barry%20Eichengreen%20is%20the%20George,the%20University%20of%20California%2C%20Berkeley.\" class=\"icon none\">where he received a distinguished fellow award. <\/a><\/p>\n<p>While <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">App<\/a>le has moved some iPhone production to  Vietnam and India, it still relies mainly on China and hasn\u2019t brought that manufacturing back to the United States, Eichengreen said.<\/p>\n<p>Any trend of reshoring of manufacturing is going to be followed by a trend to outshore service jobs, he said. The shift to  globalization of services has been spurred by the move to work from home.<\/p>\n<p>Tension between Russia and the West is not leading to major changes in global trade.<\/p>\n<p>Countries trying to move out of the dollar-centric global trading system, in order to avoid the possibility of U.S. sanctions, will only throw \u201ca few grains of sand in the wheels of the global economy,\u201d Eichengreen said.<\/p>\n<p>The dollar continues to be the world\u2019s global currency despite the risk of China.  Less than one percent of global trade is denominated in Chinese renminbi, he said.  <\/p>\n<p>Despite tension, China and the U.S. remain each other\u2019s either number one or number two trading partners.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cx-membership-tile\"><\/div>\n<p>There are some worrying signs of decoupling, Eichengreen said. U.S. imports from China are 18% below where they would have been under the trend in place before the Trump administration. But this may be companies looking for cheaper labor as wages have been rising in China, Eichengreen said.<\/p>\n<p>The big tail-risk for the global trading system is  a military confrontation between the U.S. and China in the South China Sea.  <\/p>\n<p>\u201cU.S. -China trade would be halted. Bilateral financial flows would collapse. Other countries would be forced to choose sides and the global economy would bifurcate, he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat would be the end of globalization as we know it,\u201d Eichengreen said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe can only hope that knowledge of that fact will serve as a deterrent.\u201d<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>    <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author mobile-scrim hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"Greg Robb\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"bio\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/topics\/journalists\/greg-robb\",\"text\":\"Biography\"},{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"twitter\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/grobb2000\",\"text\":\"@grobb2000\"},{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"email\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/mailto:grobb@marketwatch.com\",\"text\":\"grobb@marketwatch.com\"}]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Greg_Robb\"><\/span>Greg Robb<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><ufc-follow-author-widget product=\"marketwatch\" author-id=\"66_MW\" author-name=\"Greg Robb\" signin-url=\"https:\/\/accounts.marketwatch.com\/login?target=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Fstory%2Fglobalization-is-not-dead-but-it-is-facing-a-big-tail-risk-expert-says-11673205579%3Frss%3D1%26siteid%3Drss\" panda-api=\"https:\/\/follow-api.marketwatch.com\"><\/ufc-follow-author-widget><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-7179-2030A2866F3C%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;: Globalization is not dead, but it is facing a big tail-risk, expert says&#8221; Reports that globalization is dead are overstated, a top economist said. Conventional wisdom has it that globalization will suffer in the aftermath of the pandemic and Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine. The Biden White House\u2019s move to reshore manufacturing and to deny&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":537420,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-699392\/social","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-537419","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/537419","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=537419"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/537419\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/537420"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=537419"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=537419"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=537419"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}