{"id":540092,"date":"2023-01-17T21:47:46","date_gmt":"2023-01-17T18:47:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/bitcoin-on-chain-and-technical-data-begin-to-suggest-that-the-btc-price-bottom-is-in\/"},"modified":"2023-01-17T21:47:46","modified_gmt":"2023-01-17T18:47:46","slug":"bitcoin-on-chain-and-technical-data-begin-to-suggest-that-the-btc-price-bottom-is-in","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-on-chain-and-technical-data-begin-to-suggest-that-the-btc-price-bottom-is-in\/","title":{"rendered":"# Bitcoin on-chain and technical data begin to suggest that the BTC price bottom is in"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a36ed7613ec3\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a36ed7613ec3\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-on-chain-and-technical-data-begin-to-suggest-that-the-btc-price-bottom-is-in\/#%E2%80%9D_Bitcoin_on-chain_and_technical_data_begin_to_suggest_that_the_BTC_price_bottom_is_in_%E2%80%9C\" >&#8221; Bitcoin on-chain and technical data begin to suggest that the BTC price bottom is in &#8220;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-on-chain-and-technical-data-begin-to-suggest-that-the-btc-price-bottom-is-in\/#Short-term_bullish_reversal_signs_appear\" >Short-term bullish reversal signs appear<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9D_Bitcoin_on-chain_and_technical_data_begin_to_suggest_that_the_BTC_price_bottom_is_in_%E2%80%9C\"><\/span>&#8221; Bitcoin on-chain and technical data begin to suggest that the BTC price bottom is in &#8220;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-5a4050f8>Bitcoin\u2019s (BTC) price has followed a four-year cycle with consecutive bull and bear trends occuring in somewhat measurable intervals. A closer look at Bitcoin&#8217;s long-term price action reveals that the run-up to the top and bottom of the previous cycles look remarkably similar. What\u2019s more interesting is that the 2020 to to2021 cycle shows signs of following the same pattern.<\/p>\n<p>Independent market analyst, HornHarris, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoHornHairs\/status\/1613354455537180676?s=20&amp;t=Uz_vTR37qAz67_brcM4TtQ\">found<\/a> that the period between the bottom-to-top and top-to-bottom has been the same since 2015, 152 weeks and 52 weeks, respectively.<\/p>\n<p>Even in 2013, the bear market lasted 58 weeks, only six weeks difference from the other two cycles<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-01\/44cb7d51-35e2-4bae-8ebd-abf2f110675d.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\">Bitcoin price chart with timelines of past cycles. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Twitter<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Another resemblance with the last bottom formation is the similarity between Bitcoin\u2019s current uptrend and the one in 2019, when the primary catalyst was a prevalent negative investor sentiment. Bitcoin price gained nearly 350% from the bottom of $3,125 and it didn\u2019t drop below this level moving forward, marking the previous cycle\u2019s bottom.<\/p>\n<p>Four years later, the conditions have changed, but the underlying reason for the latest 30% surge in Bitcoin\u2019s price was still the market expecting lower prices due to macroeconomic headwinds. The lack of positive sentiment and build-up of short positions in the futures market may have allowed buyers to stage a disbelief rally to hunt short-order liquidations and incite FOMO among investors who had been sitting on the sidelines.<\/p>\n<p>But not all conditions are the same. Previously, the BTC whales,addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC,went on a buying spree as Bitcoin\u2019s price started to bottom out. However, these buyers haven\u2019t participated in the recent rally, raising concerns about its sustainability.<\/p>\n<p>If history repeats itself, Bitcoin\u2019s November 2022 lows of around $15,500 will mark the bottom of the current cycle. It would also mean that a new bullish cycle has begun, and the asset could record a new peak in October 2025.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-01\/666cbb18-0274-4e3f-880b-c1ef33f91666.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\">Number of addresses with more than 1,000 BTC. Source: Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>It will be interesting to see if whale buyers buy the theory of the Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell pulling off a successful soft-landing instead of a recession as a result of their flight against inflation. December\u2019s economic data in consumer price inflation and employment numbers showed early signs of macro improvement. A few other on-chain indicators could help confirm whether this bull run is the real deal.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Short-term_bullish_reversal_signs_appear\"><\/span>Short-term bullish reversal signs appear<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin has been trading around bargain purchase levels for quite some time on the longer timeframes. In the short-term, however, the risk of price dropping to new lows was high due to miner selling pressure, macroeconomic headwinds, and the fear of FTX contagion. The recent rally shows signs of on-chain signals moving into bullish territory.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin&#8217;s Realized Price metric reflects buyers&#8217; average price on moving the coins on-chain. Its price dropped below its Realized Price only thrice in the last eight years. Moreover, a breakout above this level has marked the end of the bearish trend in each of them.<\/p>\n<p>Currently, the Realized Price of Bitcoin sits at $19,715. If the price holds above this level, it will encourage buyers sitting on the sidelines to join the rally.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-01\/fd2104f7-89f5-4e39-b407-f7bb7984bb2f.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\">Bitcoin\u2019s on-chain Realized Price (yellow) and market price (black). Source: Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The indicator is used to identify bullish and bearish trends. When the price is in an uptrend, investors add to their winning positions during pullbacks, indicated when the SOPR indicator\u2019s value stays above one. The inverse h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ens in a bear; bears dominate the market by selling into rallies. Thus, a crossover of the metric above the pivot at one is a potent trend reversal signal.<\/p>\n<p>So far, the 7-day average transactions are still occurring at a loss, but the price is very close to flipping bullish. Based on the last retest of SOPR\u2019s pivot, the bullish reversal will happen after a successful weekly close above $21,200.<\/p>\n<p>Another reliable short-term on-chain indicator is Spend Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). It measures the profitability of Bitcoin transactions based on the price of tokens when they are added and withdrawn from specific addresses.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-01\/d460d4cf-8eb8-4abd-be0c-ed1638c48110.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\">Entry adjusted SOPR. Source: Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Another notable development has occurred with Bitcoin miners, who were one of the most significant sellers in 2022 as the market price dropped below the production cost of Bitcoin, putting pressure on them. However, the days of miner capitulation are likely behind.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The Hash Ribbon indicator developed by an on-chain analyst, Charles Edwards, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/caprioleio\/status\/1614604893615955970\">flashed<\/a> a buy signal, suggesting an end to the trend of dropping hashrates with prices recovering above production costs of large to medium-scale enterprises.<\/p>\n<p>Unless Bitcoin price drops below $20,000 in the near future, the market can expect the miners to start accumulating Bitcoin instead of having to sell the entire amount to cover operation costs.<\/p>\n<p>The stark similarities between Bitcoin\u2019s previous cycles and a relief from the ongoing miner sell-off should aid buyers in building a long-term bullish support level. <\/p>\n<p>However, the lack of whale buying and the price reversing from the SOPR pivot level around $21,200 raises a few alarms that the sellers may start to dominate again. The on-chain support level for buyers lies around the Realized Price at $19,715.<\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors\u2019 alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-on-chain-and-technical-data-begin-to-suggest-that-the-btc-price-bottom-is-in\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8221; Bitcoin on-chain and technical data begin to suggest that the BTC price bottom is in &#8220; Bitcoin\u2019s (BTC) price has followed a four-year cycle with consecutive bull and bear trends occuring in somewhat measurable intervals. A closer look at Bitcoin&#8217;s long-term price action reveals that the run-up to the top and bottom of the&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":540093,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=1200\/https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-01\/c6c556df-7176-4878-87ef-5014c9fe9f40.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74862,74937,74863,73785,70359],"class_list":["post-540092","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-markets","tag-stocks"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/540092","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=540092"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/540092\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/540093"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=540092"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=540092"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=540092"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}