{"id":540967,"date":"2023-01-19T18:32:57","date_gmt":"2023-01-19T15:32:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/bitcoin-faces-15k-crash-as-us-sparks-financial-meltdown-arthur-hayes\/"},"modified":"2023-01-19T18:32:57","modified_gmt":"2023-01-19T15:32:57","slug":"bitcoin-faces-15k-crash-as-us-sparks-financial-meltdown-arthur-hayes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-faces-15k-crash-as-us-sparks-financial-meltdown-arthur-hayes\/","title":{"rendered":"# Bitcoin faces $15K crash as US sparks &#8216;financial meltdown&#8217; \u2014 Arthur Hayes"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3df99716d95\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3df99716d95\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-faces-15k-crash-as-us-sparks-financial-meltdown-arthur-hayes\/#%E2%80%9D_Bitcoin_faces_15K_crash_as_US_sparks_%E2%80%98financial_meltdown_%E2%80%94_Arthur_Hayes_%E2%80%9C\" >&#8221; Bitcoin faces $15K crash as US sparks &#8216;financial meltdown&#8217; \u2014 Arthur Hayes &#8220;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-faces-15k-crash-as-us-sparks-financial-meltdown-arthur-hayes\/#Hayes_Crypto_will_%E2%80%9Cget_smoked%E2%80%9D_in_Fed_pivot\" >Hayes: Crypto will &#8220;get smoked&#8221; in Fed pivot<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-faces-15k-crash-as-us-sparks-financial-meltdown-arthur-hayes\/#Planning_a_March_2020_rerun\" >Planning a March 2020 rerun<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9D_Bitcoin_faces_15K_crash_as_US_sparks_%E2%80%98financial_meltdown_%E2%80%94_Arthur_Hayes_%E2%80%9C\"><\/span>&#8221; Bitcoin faces $15K crash as US sparks &#8216;financial meltdown&#8217; \u2014 Arthur Hayes &#8220;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-5a4050f8>In his latest <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptohayes.medium.com\/bouncy-castle-1b92183c61a1\">blog post<\/a> released on Jan. 19, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX exchange predicted a \u201cglobal financial meltdown\u201d thanks to future United States economic woes.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Hayes_Crypto_will_%E2%80%9Cget_smoked%E2%80%9D_in_Fed_pivot\"><\/span>Hayes: Crypto will &#8220;get smoked&#8221; in Fed pivot<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s current rally should likely not be taken as the start of a new bull run. <\/p>\n<p>That is the opinion of Arthur Hayes, who in a fresh treatise on U.S. macroeconomic policy this week warned that current Federal Reserve behavior would flip from restrictive to liberal, but cause cryptoassets to \u201cget smoked.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>With U.S. inflation easing, the Fed is the focus of practically every crypto analyst this year as they estimate the likelihood of a policy \u201cpivot\u201d away from quantitative tightening (QT) and interest rate hikes to flat and then decreasing rates, and potentially even quantitative easing (QE).<\/p>\n<p>This essentially involves a move away from draining the economy of liquidity to injecting it back in, and while that practice led to new all-time highs for Bitcoin beginning in 2020, the same phenomenon would not be plain sailing next time around, Hayes believes.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf a removal of half a trillion dollars in 2022 created the worst bond and stock performance in a few hundred years, imagine what will h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>en if double that amount is removed in 2023,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cThe reaction of the markets when money is injected vs. withdrawn is not symmetrical \u2014 and as such, I expect that the law of unintended consequences will bite the Fed in the ass as it continues to withdraw liquidity.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>As such, rather than a smooth transition away from QT, Hayes is betting on extreme circumstances forcing the Fed to act.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSome part of the US credit market breaks, which leads to a financial meltdown across a broad swath of financial assets,\u201d he explained. <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cIn a response similar to the action it took in March 2020, the Fed calls an emergency press conference and stops QT, cuts rates significantly and recommences Quantitative Easing (QE) by purchasing bonds once more.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>This in turn means \u201crisky asset prices crater.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBonds, equities, and every crypto under the sun all get smoked as the glue that holds together the global USD-based financial system dissolves,\u201d the blog post continues.<\/p>\n<p>Current estimates, as shown by CME Group&#8217;s <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">FedWatch Tool<\/a>, overwhelmingly favor the Fed lowering the pace of rate hikes at its next decision on Feb. 1.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-01\/b2101ac9-3b34-48d1-8c68-efe99f638bb7.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Planning_a_March_2020_rerun\"><\/span>Planning a March 2020 rerun<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Hayes is far from alone in being suspicious of Bitcoin being a firm \u201cbuy\u201d at present after two weeks of near-vertical price growth.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Related:\u00a0Bitcoin sees new 4-month high as US PPI, retail data posts \u2018big misses\u2019<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>As Cointelegraph reported, various commentators wager that new macro lows will still appear, with BTC\/USD taking out its floor from Q4, 2022.<\/p>\n<p>Those taking a leap of faith and piling in now thus face serious risk before reward.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis scenario is less ideal because it would mean that everyone who is buying risky assets now would be in store for massive drawdowns in performance. 2023 could be just as bad as 2022 until the Fed pivots,\u201d Hayes wrote, nonetheless calling that scenario his \u201cbase case.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>If that means a retest of the 2022 lows, the area between $15,000 and $16,000 will be a key zone of interest going forward.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI will know that the market has probably bottomed, because the crash that happens when the system temporarily breaks will either hold the previous $15,800 lows, or it won\u2019t,\u201d the blog post concludes. <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cIt doesn\u2019t really matter what level is ultimately reached on the down draft because I know the Fed will subsequently move to print money and avert another financial collapse, which will in turn mark the local bottom of all risky assets. And then I get another setup similar to March 2020, which requires me to back up the truck and purchase crypto with two hands and a shovel.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Bitcoin (BTC) faces a drop to $15,000 \u201cor lower\u201d as part of a mass risk asset capitulation, says Arthur Hayes.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-01\/1b562d55-ea82-47bf-93e2-752c0b59bad6.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>BTC\/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>BTC\/USD consolidated at $20,800 at the Jan. 19 Wall Street open, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BTCUSD\/?exchange=BINANCE\">TradingView<\/a> showed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors\u2019 alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.\n<\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-faces-15k-crash-as-us-sparks-financial-meltdown-arthur-hayes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8221; Bitcoin faces $15K crash as US sparks &#8216;financial meltdown&#8217; \u2014 Arthur Hayes &#8220; In his latest blog post released on Jan. 19, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX exchange predicted a \u201cglobal financial meltdown\u201d thanks to future United States economic woes. Hayes: Crypto will &#8220;get smoked&#8221; in Fed pivot Bitcoin\u2019s current rally should&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":540968,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=1200\/https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-01\/daae047d-0709-48f8-8556-4fea57e1966c.jpeg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[82304,74862,74937,74863,70550,73785,68637],"class_list":["post-540967","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-arthur-hayes","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-federal-reserve","tag-markets","tag-predictions"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/540967","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=540967"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/540967\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/540968"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=540967"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=540967"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=540967"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}