{"id":552298,"date":"2023-02-15T21:44:00","date_gmt":"2023-02-15T18:44:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/in-one-chart-stocks-face-meaningful-downside-risk-amid-complacent-markets-jpmorgan\/"},"modified":"2023-02-15T21:44:00","modified_gmt":"2023-02-15T18:44:00","slug":"in-one-chart-stocks-face-meaningful-downside-risk-amid-complacent-markets-jpmorgan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/in-one-chart-stocks-face-meaningful-downside-risk-amid-complacent-markets-jpmorgan\/","title":{"rendered":"#In One Chart: Stocks face \u2018meaningful\u2019 downside risk amid \u2018complacent\u2019 markets: JPMorgan"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a4164c781faf\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a4164c781faf\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/in-one-chart-stocks-face-meaningful-downside-risk-amid-complacent-markets-jpmorgan\/#%E2%80%9CIn_One_Chart_Stocks_face_%E2%80%98meaningful_downside_risk_amid_%E2%80%98complacent_markets_JPMorgan%E2%80%9D\" >&#8220;In One Chart: Stocks face \u2018meaningful\u2019 downside risk amid \u2018complacent\u2019 markets: JPMorgan&#8221;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/in-one-chart-stocks-face-meaningful-downside-risk-amid-complacent-markets-jpmorgan\/#Vivien_Lou_Chen\" >Vivien Lou Chen<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9CIn_One_Chart_Stocks_face_%E2%80%98meaningful_downside_risk_amid_%E2%80%98complacent_markets_JPMorgan%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>&#8220;In One Chart: Stocks face \u2018meaningful\u2019 downside risk amid \u2018complacent\u2019 markets: JPMorgan&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\">\n<\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div class=\"article__side\">\n<div class=\"container--sticky not-active\">\n<div id=\"cx-next\" data-nosnippet>\n              <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap crawler\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0001680143\" role=\"document\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-layout=\"\n                inline\" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetArticleReader\n              \n              inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetArticleReader\n              article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"media-object-article-reader\">\n<div class=\"audioplayer\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0001680143\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"Listen to Article\" tabindex=\"-1\" id=\"articlereader\" data-show-title=\"false\" data-theme=\"wsj-article-reader\" data-show-header=\"false\" data-show-subscribe=\"false\" data-ads-enabled=\"true\" data-save-publication=\"false\">\n        <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       As Wednesday\u2019s data continued to point to a resilient U.S. economy, strategists at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. issued a warning about what could be \u201cmeaningful\u201d downside risks in the equity market.<\/p>\n<p>Early results from a survey of JPMorgan\u2019s clients this week showed that 68% were more likely to decrease their exposure to stocks in the coming days and weeks, while 32% were likely to increase it. In addition, 78% said they were more likely to boost bond-portfolio duration over the same period and 22% were likely to decrease it. <\/p>\n<p>The JPMorgan survey is the latest indication that investors may be finally coming around to the view that the Federal Reserve won\u2019t likely pivot toward a rate cut later this year, given the economy\u2019s unexpected strength even after eight straight rate hikes since last March. <\/p>\n<p>Seventy-two percent of respondents in JPMorgan\u2019s survey described markets as being too complacent. January\u2019s stock action had been driven by a \u201cfear-of-missing-out\u201d rally and, for a time, it seemed retail participation was on its way back, with recent sentiment among individual investors turning bullish. Data from Refinitiv Lipper, however, shows investors have been walking away from stock-market funds and going into bonds for weeks. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Read:<\/strong> Why the stock market\u2019s \u2018FOMO\u2019 rally paused and what will decide its fate<\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<div style=\"padding-bottom:113.14285714285714%;\" data-subtype=\"photo\" class=\"image-container  responsive-media article__inset__image__image\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" itemprop=\"contentUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-725410?width=540&amp;size=0.8839779005524862 540w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-725410?width=620&amp;size=0.8839779005524862 620w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-725410?width=639&amp;size=0.8839779005524862 639w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-725410?width=700&amp;size=0.8839779005524862 700w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-725410?width=700&amp;size=0.8839779005524862&amp;pixel_ratio=1.5 1050w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-725410?width=700&amp;size=0.8839779005524862&amp;pixel_ratio=2 1400w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-725410?width=700&amp;size=0.8839779005524862&amp;pixel_ratio=3 2100w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 639px) 100vw, (max-width: 979px) 620px, (max-width: 1299px) 540px, 700px\" src=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-725410?width=700&amp;height=792\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><\/div><figcaption class=\"wsj-article-caption article__inset__image__caption\" itemprop=\"caption\"><span class=\"wsj-article-credit article__inset__image__caption__credit\" itemprop=\"creator\"><br \/>\n            Source: JPMorgan<br \/>\n          <\/span><br \/>\n  <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>       Wednesday\u2019s economic data revealed a surprisingly strong 3% jump in retail sales for January, giving fresh hope to the idea that the U.S. can avoid a recession in the first quarter in what some are calling a \u201cno landing\u201d scenario. The report comes a day after January\u2019s consumer-price index underscored that inflation is grudgingly slowing and still sticky, and almost two weeks after a blowout jobs report showed 517,000 new jobs created last month.<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, U.S. economic strength <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ears to be translating into greater risks in the financial market, by ensuring the Fed\u2019s rate-hike campaign endures. Indeed, some economists have argued that a \u201cno landing\u201d scenario could sink stocks as a hot labor market and other factors force the Fed to drive rates higher than policy makers and investors currently expect.<\/p>\n<p><strong>See: <\/strong>Top Wall St. economist says \u2018no landing\u2019 scenario could trigger another tech-led stock-market selloff<\/p>\n<p> On Tuesday, January\u2019s hotter-than-expected CPI report had traders lifting the likelihood of a June rate hike to almost 52%, up from 35% a week ago, and was already raising the possibility that it could deal a massive blow to the stock market. After Wednesday\u2019s retail-sales report, traders were slightly boosting the chances of a half-percentage-point rate hike in March, which would take the fed-funds rate target to between 5% and 5.25%, though the overwhelming likelihood remained in place for a quarter-point move.<\/p>\n<p>In an updated note released on Wednesday, Marko Kolanovic and other JPMorgan strategists said that \u201cwith equities trading near last summer\u2019s highs and at above-average multiples, despite weakening earnings and the recent sharp move higher in interest rates, we maintain that markets are overpricing recent good <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a> on inflation and are complacent of risks. Equity markets appeared to read this month\u2019s central bank meetings as dovish, while dismissing the weak Q4 earnings and the implications of the strong U.S. payroll report for both monetary policy and corporate margins.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe see the equity risk\/reward as skewed to the downside, as upside potential for markets is likely fairly limited given stretched valuations and high rates, while downside could be meaningful, e.g. in case of a further weakening of activity, persisting inflation, higher terminal rates, or a resurgence of geopolitical risk,\u201d the team said.<\/p>\n<p> Other preliminary results of the survey that 38% percent of respondents see the next U.S. recession starting in the first half of 2024, while 34% expect the downturn to begin in the second half of this year.<\/p>\n<p>On Wednesday, major U.S. stock indexes<br \/>\n        DJIA,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210598065\/realtime\" class=\"negative\">-0.07%<\/bg-quote><\/p>\n<p>        SPX,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210599714\/realtime\" class=\"positive\">+0.04%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       were mostly lower in afternoon trading as investors digested the implications of the retail-sales report. Meanwhile, most Treasury yields traded higher, led by a jump in the 20- and 30-year rates<br \/>\n        TMUBMUSD30Y,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.000%\" channel=\"\" class=\"\">3.859%<\/bg-quote><span>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>    <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author mobile-scrim hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"Vivien Lou Chen\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"bio\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/author\/vivien-lou-chen\",\"text\":\"Biography\"},{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"twitter\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/vivienlouchen\",\"text\":\"@vivienlouchen\"}]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Vivien_Lou_Chen\"><\/span>Vivien Lou Chen<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><ufc-follow-author-widget product=\"marketwatch\" author-id=\"250_MW\" author-name=\"Vivien Lou Chen\" signin-url=\"https:\/\/accounts.marketwatch.com\/login?target=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Fstory%2Fstocks-face-meaningful-downside-risk-amid-complacent-markets-jpmorgan-4b3b2130%3Frss%3D1%26siteid%3Drss\" panda-api=\"https:\/\/follow-api.marketwatch.com\"><\/ufc-follow-author-widget><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-719A-30F944AD50C7%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;In One Chart: Stocks face \u2018meaningful\u2019 downside risk amid \u2018complacent\u2019 markets: JPMorgan&#8221; As Wednesday\u2019s data continued to point to a resilient U.S. economy, strategists at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. issued a warning about what could be \u201cmeaningful\u201d downside risks in the equity market. Early results from a survey of JPMorgan\u2019s clients this week showed that&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":552299,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-725550\/social","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-552298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/552298","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=552298"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/552298\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/552299"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=552298"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=552298"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=552298"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}