{"id":552870,"date":"2023-02-17T01:41:11","date_gmt":"2023-02-16T22:41:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/bitcoin-price-derivatives-look-a-bit-overheated-but-data-suggests-bears-are-outnumbered\/"},"modified":"2023-02-17T01:41:11","modified_gmt":"2023-02-16T22:41:11","slug":"bitcoin-price-derivatives-look-a-bit-overheated-but-data-suggests-bears-are-outnumbered","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-price-derivatives-look-a-bit-overheated-but-data-suggests-bears-are-outnumbered\/","title":{"rendered":"# Bitcoin price derivatives look a bit overheated, but data suggests bears are outnumbered"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3be8efb86df\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3be8efb86df\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-price-derivatives-look-a-bit-overheated-but-data-suggests-bears-are-outnumbered\/#%E2%80%9D_Bitcoin_price_derivatives_look_a_bit_overheated_but_data_suggests_bears_are_outnumbered_%E2%80%9C\" >&#8221; Bitcoin price derivatives look a bit overheated, but data suggests bears are outnumbered &#8220;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-price-derivatives-look-a-bit-overheated-but-data-suggests-bears-are-outnumbered\/#Bitcoin_margined_longs_entered_the_%E2%80%9CFOMO%E2%80%9D_range\" >Bitcoin margined longs entered the \u201cFOMO\u201d range<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-price-derivatives-look-a-bit-overheated-but-data-suggests-bears-are-outnumbered\/#Options_traders_remain_skeptical_of_a_sustained_rally\" >Options traders remain skeptical of a sustained rally<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9D_Bitcoin_price_derivatives_look_a_bit_overheated_but_data_suggests_bears_are_outnumbered_%E2%80%9C\"><\/span>&#8221; Bitcoin price derivatives look a bit overheated, but data suggests bears are outnumbered &#8220;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-48054ca8>Bitcoin (BTC) price rallied over 12% on Feb. 15, marking the highest daily close in more than six months. Curiously, the movement h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ened while gold reached a 40-day low at $1,826, indicating some potential shift in investors&#8217; risk assessment for cryptocurrencies.<\/p>\n<p>A stronger than expected U.S. inflation report on Feb. 14 presented 5.6% growth year-over-year, followed by data showing resilient consumer demand caused traders to rethink Bitcoin&#8217;s scarcity value. U.S. retail sales increased by 3% in January versus the previous month \u2014 the highest gain in almost two years.<\/p>\n<p>On-chain data indicates that the recent gains can be traced back to a mysterious institutional investor that started buying on Feb. 10. According to Lookonchain&#8217;s data, nearly $1.6 billion in funds have flowed into the crypto market between Feb. 10 and Feb. 15. The analysis showed that three notable USD Coin (USD) wallets sent out funds to various exchanges around the same time.<\/p>\n<p>More importantly, <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a> emerged that the Binance exchange is preparing to face penalties and settle eventual outstanding regulatory and law-enforcement investigations in the U.S., according to a Feb. 15 Wall Street Journal report. The exchange&#8217;s chief strategy officer, Patrick Hillmann, added that Binance was &#8220;highly confident and feeling really good about where those discussions are going.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s look at derivatives metrics to understand better how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bitcoin_margined_longs_entered_the_%E2%80%9CFOMO%E2%80%9D_range\"><\/span>Bitcoin margined longs entered the \u201cFOMO\u201d range<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Margin markets provide insight into how professional traders are positioned because it allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their positions.<\/p>\n<p>For example, one can increase exposure by borrowing stablecoins to buy (long) Bitcoin. On the other hand, Bitcoin borrowers can only bet against (short) the cryptocurrency. Unlike futures contracts, the balance between margin longs and shorts isn&#8217;t always matched.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-02\/d2efbe3c-5d6f-4a96-a64c-8e82252362b8.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>OKX stablecoin\/BTC margin lending ratio. Source: OKX<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The above chart shows that OKX traders&#8217; margin lending ratio increased between Jan. 13 and Jan. 15, signaling that professional traders added leverage long positions as Bitcoin price broke above the $23,500 resistance.<\/p>\n<p>One might argue that the demand for borrowing stablecoins for bullish positioning is excessive as a stablecoin\/BTC margin lending ratio above 30 is unusual. However, traders tend to deposit more collateral after a few days or weeks, causing the indicator to exit the FOMO level.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Options_traders_remain_skeptical_of_a_sustained_rally\"><\/span>Options traders remain skeptical of a sustained rally<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Traders should also analyze options markets to understand whether the recent rally has caused investors to become more risk-averse. The 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever arbitrage desks and market makers are overcharging for upside or downside protection.<\/p>\n<p>The indicator compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options and will turn positive when fear is prevalent because the protective put options premium is higher than risk call options.<\/p>\n<p>In short, the skew metric will move above 10% if traders fear a Bitcoin price crash. On the other hand, <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a>ized excitement reflects a negative 10% skew.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Related:<\/em><\/strong><strong><em> $24K Bitcoin \u2014 Is it time to buy BTC and altcoins? Watch Market Talks live<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-02\/1b0d540e-3de2-4af4-ae3e-f9beeb537a70.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin 60-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Notice that the 25% delta skew has been neutral for the past two weeks, signaling equal pricing for bullish and bearish strategies. This reading is highly unusual considering Bitcoin gained 16.2% from Jan. 13 to Jan. 16 and typically, one would expect excessive bullishness causing the skew to move below negative 10.<\/p>\n<p>One thing is for sure, the lack of bearish sentiment is present in futures and options markets. Still, there is some concerning data on excessive margin demand for leverage buying, although it is too soon to call it worrisome.<\/p>\n<p>The longer Bitcoin remains above $24,000, the more comfortable those pro traders become with the current rally. Moreover, bears using futures markets had $235 million liquidated between Jan. 15 and Jan. 16, resulting in a decreasing appetite for bearish bets. Hence, the derivatives markets continue to favor bullish momentum.<\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors\u2019 alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-price-derivatives-look-a-bit-overheated-but-data-suggests-bears-are-outnumbered\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8221; Bitcoin price derivatives look a bit overheated, but data suggests bears are outnumbered &#8220; Bitcoin (BTC) price rallied over 12% on Feb. 15, marking the highest daily close in more than six months. Curiously, the movement happened while gold reached a 40-day low at $1,826, indicating some potential shift in investors&#8217; risk assessment for&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":552871,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-02\/c2323a14-81aa-4dde-adce-4eef7d005658.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[75014,74862,74972,74937,74863,74860,75012,74939,82350,73785],"class_list":["post-552870","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-binance","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-futures","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-cryptocurrency-exchange","tag-derivatives","tag-market-analysis","tag-usd-coin","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/552870","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=552870"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/552870\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/552871"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=552870"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=552870"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=552870"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}