{"id":553066,"date":"2023-02-17T12:28:00","date_gmt":"2023-02-17T09:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/after-hot-economic-data-the-big-question-is-whether-the-fed-will-return-to-50-basis-point-rate-hikes\/"},"modified":"2023-02-17T12:28:00","modified_gmt":"2023-02-17T09:28:00","slug":"after-hot-economic-data-the-big-question-is-whether-the-fed-will-return-to-50-basis-point-rate-hikes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/after-hot-economic-data-the-big-question-is-whether-the-fed-will-return-to-50-basis-point-rate-hikes\/","title":{"rendered":"#: After hot economic data, the big question is whether the Fed will return to 50 basis point rate hikes"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3dd2e43a360\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3dd2e43a360\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/after-hot-economic-data-the-big-question-is-whether-the-fed-will-return-to-50-basis-point-rate-hikes\/#%E2%80%9C_After_hot_economic_data_the_big_question_is_whether_the_Fed_will_return_to_50_basis_point_rate_hikes%E2%80%9D\" >&#8220;: After hot economic data, the big question is whether the Fed will return to 50 basis point rate hikes&#8221;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/after-hot-economic-data-the-big-question-is-whether-the-fed-will-return-to-50-basis-point-rate-hikes\/#Steve_Goldstein\" >Steve Goldstein<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9C_After_hot_economic_data_the_big_question_is_whether_the_Fed_will_return_to_50_basis_point_rate_hikes%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>&#8220;: After hot economic data, the big question is whether the Fed will return to 50 basis point rate hikes&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\">\n<\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div class=\"article__side\">\n<div class=\"container--sticky not-active\">\n<div id=\"cx-next\" data-nosnippet>\n              <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap crawler\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0001689201\" role=\"document\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-layout=\"\n                inline\" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetArticleReader\n              \n              inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetArticleReader\n              article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"media-object-article-reader\">\n<div class=\"audioplayer\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0001689201\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"Listen to Article\" tabindex=\"-1\" id=\"articlereader\" data-show-title=\"false\" data-theme=\"wsj-article-reader\" data-show-header=\"false\" data-show-subscribe=\"false\" data-ads-enabled=\"true\" data-save-publication=\"false\">\n        <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       The economic data coming in over the last week has by and large been characterized by one word: hot.<\/p>\n<p> U.S. nonfarm payrolls employment surged by 517,000. Retail sales jumped by 3%. Consumer and producer prices did decelerate on a year-over-year basis, but not by as much as forecast. After the PPI data, economists at Goldman Sachs added another quarter-point rate hike to their forecasts, so that they now see 25 basis point hikes in March, May and June, which would take the fed funds rate between 5.25% and 5.5%.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n       Regional Fed Presidents James Bullard and Loretta Mester stepped to the microphone on Thursday to say they wanted a 50 basis point rate hike last month, rather than the quarter-point the Fed opted for in a unanimous vote. (Bullard and Mester were on the outside looking in as they\u2019re not voting Federal Open Market Committee members this year.)<\/p>\n<p>Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING, says it might be too early to let hawkish views soar. \u201cWe think the better activity data is partly weather-related and had always thought that the next leg of the U.S. disinflation story would be in the second rather than the first quarter,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>That January was unusually warm can be seen in data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which tracks what are called heating degree days, which just measures when the temperature falls below 65 degrees Fahrenheit. Compared to normal, there were 175 fewer heating degree days in January than usual, according to the NOAA data. 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be below the central bank\u2019s anticipated terminal rate of 5.375%. \u201cIt clearly became more concerned with the risk of overtightening, and suddenly downplayed the need for higher unemployment. But it must be the case that recent data reduces the risk that the Fed was close to overtightening, and raises the risk it will soon again fall behind the curve,\u201d says Duy.<\/p>\n<p>The key data to answer the question whether the Fed will step up the pace of rate hikes will be answered in March, as both payrolls and consumer price indexes for February will be released before the next Fed decision.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFedspeak like [Thursday\u2019s] will lead market participants toward a 50bp hike if incoming data follows the recent trend. If the Fed doesn\u2019t want that, leadership needs to be explaining why it won\u2019t h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>en, or [Chair Jerome] Powell will need to reset expectations ahead of the employment report,\u201d said Duy.<\/p>\n<p>The yield on the 2-year Treasury<br \/>\n        TMUBMUSD02Y,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.000%\" channel=\"\" class=\"\">4.689%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n      was 4.69%, not far from the 52-week high of 4.73%. U.S. stock futures<br \/>\n        ES00,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/209948968\/delayed\" class=\"negative\">-0.62%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       were pointing to a lower start after a weak finish on Thursday, in which the S&amp;P 500<br \/>\n        SPX,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210599714\/realtime\" class=\"negative\">-1.38%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       lost 1.4%.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>    <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author mobile-scrim hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"Steve Goldstein\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"bio\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/topics\/journalists\/steve-goldstein\",\"text\":\"Biography\"},{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"twitter\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MKTWgoldstein\",\"text\":\"@MKTWgoldstein\"},{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"facebook\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/stevegoldsteinnews\",\"text\":\"stevegoldsteinnews\"},{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"email\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/mailto:sgoldstein@marketwatch.com\",\"text\":\"sgoldstein@marketwatch.com\"}]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Steve_Goldstein\"><\/span>Steve Goldstein<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><ufc-follow-author-widget product=\"marketwatch\" author-id=\"185_MW\" author-name=\"Steve Goldstein\" signin-url=\"https:\/\/accounts.marketwatch.com\/login?target=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Fstory%2Fafter-hot-economic-data-the-big-question-is-whether-the-fed-will-return-to-50-basis-point-rate-hikes-be1774cb%3Frss%3D1%26siteid%3Drss\" panda-api=\"https:\/\/follow-api.marketwatch.com\"><\/ufc-follow-author-widget><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-719C-67100B3CBE4F%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;: After hot economic data, the big question is whether the Fed will return to 50 basis point rate hikes&#8221; The economic data coming in over the last week has by and large been characterized by one word: hot. U.S. nonfarm payrolls employment surged by 517,000. Retail sales jumped by 3%. Consumer and producer prices&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":553067,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-727261\/social","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-553066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/553066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=553066"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/553066\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/553067"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=553066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=553066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=553066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}