{"id":553977,"date":"2023-02-19T22:05:00","date_gmt":"2023-02-19T19:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/mark-hulbert-the-stock-markets-pullback-is-healthy\/"},"modified":"2023-02-19T22:05:00","modified_gmt":"2023-02-19T19:05:00","slug":"mark-hulbert-the-stock-markets-pullback-is-healthy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/mark-hulbert-the-stock-markets-pullback-is-healthy\/","title":{"rendered":"#Mark Hulbert: The stock market\u2019s pullback is healthy"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a25841434983\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a25841434983\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/mark-hulbert-the-stock-markets-pullback-is-healthy\/#%E2%80%9CMark_Hulbert_The_stock_markets_pullback_is_healthy%E2%80%9D\" >&#8220;Mark Hulbert: The stock market\u2019s pullback is healthy&#8221;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/mark-hulbert-the-stock-markets-pullback-is-healthy\/#Wall_Streets_mood_is_surprisingly_subdued_%E2%80%94_and_thats_bullish\" >Wall Street\u2019s mood is surprisingly subdued \u2014 and that\u2019s bullish<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/mark-hulbert-the-stock-markets-pullback-is-healthy\/#Mark_Hulbert\" >Mark Hulbert<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9CMark_Hulbert_The_stock_markets_pullback_is_healthy%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>&#8220;Mark Hulbert: The stock market\u2019s pullback is healthy&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Wall_Streets_mood_is_surprisingly_subdued_%E2%80%94_and_thats_bullish\"><\/span>\n  Wall Street\u2019s mood is surprisingly subdued \u2014 and that\u2019s bullish<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div class=\"article__side\">\n<div class=\"container--sticky not-active\">\n<div id=\"cx-next\" data-nosnippet>\n              <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap crawler\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0001689726\" role=\"document\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-layout=\"\n                inline\" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetArticleReader\n              \n              inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetArticleReader\n              article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"media-object-article-reader\">\n<div class=\"audioplayer\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0001689726\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"Listen to Article\" tabindex=\"-1\" id=\"articlereader\" data-show-title=\"false\" data-theme=\"wsj-article-reader\" data-show-header=\"false\" data-show-subscribe=\"false\" data-ads-enabled=\"true\" data-save-publication=\"false\">\n        <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       The stock market\u2019s recent pullback may have bought the market\u2019s recent rally more time.<\/p>\n<p> That\u2019s because short-term market timers since the beginning of February have on average significantly retreated from their prior bullishness. As I indicated two weeks ago when anticipating a market pullback, \u201cit would be a positive sign if the timers on balance quickly jump off the bullish bandwagon at the first sign of market weakness.\u201d In that event, the pullback would likely be relatively modest and the market\u2019s rally could resume fairly quickly.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n       The first part of this <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">script<\/a> has certainly come to pass. Since the market\u2019s early February high, the S&amp;P 500<br \/>\n        SPX,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210599714\/realtime\" class=\"negative\">-0.28%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       has slipped just 2.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite<br \/>\n        COMP,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210598365\/realtime\" class=\"negative\">-0.58%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       just 2.8%. But these small declines have still been enough to cause the average short-term market timer to become markedly less optimistic.<\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<div style=\"padding-bottom:73.71428571428571%;\" data-subtype=\"photo\" class=\"image-container  responsive-media article__inset__image__image\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" itemprop=\"contentUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-726588?width=540&amp;size=1.357370095440085 540w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-726588?width=620&amp;size=1.357370095440085 620w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-726588?width=639&amp;size=1.357370095440085 639w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-726588?width=700&amp;size=1.357370095440085 700w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-726588?width=700&amp;size=1.357370095440085&amp;pixel_ratio=1.5 1050w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-726588?width=700&amp;size=1.357370095440085&amp;pixel_ratio=2 1400w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-726588?width=700&amp;size=1.357370095440085&amp;pixel_ratio=3 2100w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 639px) 100vw, (max-width: 979px) 620px, (max-width: 1299px) 540px, 700px\" src=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-726588?width=700&amp;height=516\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><\/div><figcaption class=\"wsj-article-caption article__inset__image__caption\" itemprop=\"caption\"><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>       Consider first the average recommended equity exposure level among a subset of short-term market timers who focus on the Nasdaq stock market in particular. (This average is what\u2019s tracked by the Hulbert Nasdaq <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a>letter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI.) At the time of my two-weeks-ago column on market sentiment, the HNNSI stood at the 90.1 percentile of its historical distribution since 2000. It today stands at the 69.2 percentile<em>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Even more subdued are those market timers who focus on the broad market rather than the Nasdaq market in particular. The average of their current exposure levels stands at the 50.8 percentile of its two-decade distribution.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s remarkable that the market timers aren\u2019t more upbeat. At its peak earlier this month, the Nasdaq Composite was up more than 20% from its late-2022 low, thereby satisfying the semiofficial criterion for what constitutes a new bull market. It\u2019s only modestly below that threshold level now. Yet the market timing community is in a meh mood, and that\u2019s bullish \u2014 relative to what we\u2019d normally expect in the wake of a rally as strong as the one recently.<\/p>\n<p>Note carefully that contrarian analysis is at best a short-term tool, providing insight over an horizon that doesn\u2019t extend out much more than a month or two. So market timers\u2019 recent behavior sheds no light on where the stock market may be by the end of this year.<\/p>\n<p>At a minimum, though, contrarians believe the outlook for the next several weeks is a lot more upbeat than it would have been had the market timers behaved as they normally would after a greater-than-20% rally and become excessively bullish.<\/p>\n<p><em>Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com<\/em>.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>    <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author mobile-scrim hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"Mark Hulbert\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"bio\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/topics\/journalists\/mark-hulbert\",\"text\":\"Biography\"},{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"twitter\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MktwHulbert\",\"text\":\"@MktwHulbert\"},{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"email\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/mailto:contributors@marketwatch.com\",\"text\":\"contributors@marketwatch.com\"}]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Mark_Hulbert\"><\/span>Mark Hulbert<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><ufc-follow-author-widget product=\"marketwatch\" author-id=\"124_MW\" author-name=\"Mark Hulbert\" signin-url=\"https:\/\/accounts.marketwatch.com\/login?target=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Fstory%2Fthe-stock-markets-pullback-is-healthy-148e4101%3Frss%3D1%26siteid%3Drss\" panda-api=\"https:\/\/follow-api.marketwatch.com\"><\/ufc-follow-author-widget><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-719C-87E528ED80CA%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;Mark Hulbert: The stock market\u2019s pullback is healthy&#8221; Wall Street\u2019s mood is surprisingly subdued \u2014 and that\u2019s bullish The stock market\u2019s recent pullback may have bought the market\u2019s recent rally more time. That\u2019s because short-term market timers since the beginning of February have on average significantly retreated from their prior bullishness. As I indicated two&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":553978,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-703428\/social","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-553977","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/553977","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=553977"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/553977\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/553978"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=553977"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=553977"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=553977"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}