{"id":555037,"date":"2023-02-22T03:45:35","date_gmt":"2023-02-22T00:45:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/what-putins-speech-reveals-about-his-plans-in-ukraine\/"},"modified":"2023-02-22T03:45:35","modified_gmt":"2023-02-22T00:45:35","slug":"what-putins-speech-reveals-about-his-plans-in-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/what-putins-speech-reveals-about-his-plans-in-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"#What Putin\u2019s speech reveals about his plans in Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3dfcba4358d\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3dfcba4358d\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/what-putins-speech-reveals-about-his-plans-in-ukraine\/#What_Putins_speech_reveals_about_his_plans_in_Ukraine\" >What Putin\u2019s speech reveals about his plans in Ukraine<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Putins_speech_reveals_about_his_plans_in_Ukraine\"><\/span>What Putin\u2019s speech reveals about his plans in Ukraine<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/d2e025db15094784b6c8e2afd3a02fc5-1.jpg?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Russian President Vladimir Putin began his address before Russia\u2019s parliament on Tuesday by underlining the stakes of his war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis is a time of radical, irreversible change in the entire world, of crucial historical events that will determine the future of our country and our people, a time when every one of us bears a colossal responsibility,\u201d he told gathered lawmakers.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Many of the headlines coming out of his speech focused on his announcement that Russia would unilaterally suspend its involvement in the last remaining nuclear treaty with the United States \u2014 a move that further stoked nuclear anxiety in the West.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>But the speech also offered indications of how the Russian leader might handle the second year of the war he started on Feb. 24, 2022, and how he is seeking to shape the narrative to his domestic audience and the world.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis is the closest to a true wartime speech that we have heard so far,\u201d said Daniel Goure, a defense expert and senior vice president at the Lexington Institute, a public policy think tank.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>And Putin is no longer framing his fight as a special operation to liberate Ukraine, he is now casting it as an existential war against Western civilization.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis came closest to sort of saying it\u2019s them versus us,\u201d added Goure.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Clash of civilizations<\/strong><\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cThe Western elite make no secret of their goal, which is, I quote, \u2018Russia\u2019s strategic defeat.\u2019\u201d Putin said Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat does this mean to us? This means they plan to finish us once and for all,\u201d he said. \u201cIn other words, they plan to grow a local conflict into a global confrontation. This is how we understand it and we will respond accordingly, because this represents an existential threat to our country.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>This sweeping framing of the war \u2014 blaming imperial America and its allies for starting the war despite supposed Russian efforts at peace \u2014 gives Putin much-needed political cover as he gears up for a long fight, experts said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>The Russian leader set early expectations that his special operations would take a matter of days. He now needs to justify an all-out war that has cost thousands of lives, isolated Russia internationally and promises months or years of additional pain.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The case for sending Russian soldiers to die is much stronger if Putin says \u201clook, this is defending not just Russians in Ukraine, or even the Russian border, this is defending the culture. This is defending the [Russians] against the pollution from the west,\u201d said Goure.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Putin also needs to explain why Russia\u2019s war effort is flailing, after a year in which Moscow\u2019s troops made early gains but have been on a monthslong losing streak, noted Andres Kasekamp, a political <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/sciencee\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"5\" title=\"Science\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">science<\/a> professor at the University of Toronto who studies the war.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cSo he\u2019s trying to explain that, \u2018No, no, we\u2019re fighting the entire West. That\u2019s why it\u2019s so difficult.\u2019 So that\u2019s a domestic narrative,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Internationally, blaming the West, and specifically the U.S., for the war helps muddy the diplomatic waters and might help convince some countries in Africa, Asia and Latin American to maintain a neutral stance, rather than denouncing Russia\u2019s aggression, he added.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt helps to reach that non-western global audience who might be anti-Western in their perception,\u201d Kasekamp said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr5_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p><strong>Nuclear blackmail<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Kasekamp described Putin\u2019s address as \u201clargely rehashing all of the same old grievances,\u201d and noted he made no attempt to apologize for his failures or signal an openness for dialogue or changing course.<\/p>\n<p>The only \u201cnew information\u201d in the speech was his announcement that Russia would suspend its participation in the Nuclear START treaty, a post-Cold War agreement that was already effectively paused due to the Ukraine war.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr6_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Kasekamp called the announcement \u201cbluster and trying to push the one button that he thinks that for U.S. policymakers, he can get their kind of attention and irritate them.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Leon Aron, a Russia expert at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), said nuclear blackmail is the only tool Putin has left.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs Russia sinks deeper and deeper into this quagmire of the war in Ukraine \u2014 it\u2019s a war of attrition and a bloody slog \u2014 what\u2019s left is nuclear weapons. And it <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ears that\u2019s Russia\u2019s only effective way of influencing both that war, but broader relationship with the West,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr7_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>While Putin has been rattling his nuclear saber since before the war started, Aron say his suspension of the START treaty was a concrete move meant to back up his nuclear blackmail.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEssentially he buried arms control,\u201d Aron said. \u201cWhy would he do this? Well\u2026he knows that he cannot sustain an indefinitely longer war, and he has to end it one way or another. That is when I think the nuclear blackmail is going to be deployed.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>What that looks like is less clear. Aron wrote an\u00a0article for the National Review\u00a0last week raising the possibility that Putin could invade another country in a bid to force a negotiated settlement in Ukraine.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Would Putin actually use a nuclear weapon, or just ramp up the threat?<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI hope he\u2019s not mad,\u201d Aron said. \u201cBut certainly it makes it plausible that he would resort to, one way or another, kind of a very real nuclear blackmail.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>So far, Putin\u2019s nuclear saber rattling has worked \u2014 with the U.S. and its Western allies engaging in what Kasekamp called \u201cself-deterrence,\u201d waiting months before providing lethal weapons out of fear of provoking Putin.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>And each additional weapon \u2014 air defense systems, long-range missiles, tanks and now jets \u2014 spurs a new debate around the same fear of escalation, with Russia\u2019s nukes as the backdrop.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Preparing for a long war<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Short of the nuclear option, Putin\u2019s strategy appears to be maintaining the current war of attrition, and encouraging Russians to adapt to their new reality.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In his address, he boasted that Western sanctions were failing to cripple Russia\u2019s economy, with agricultural production up and unemployment down. And he sent a message to businesspeople who may still yearn for a \u201ccomfortable place abroad.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere is another option: to stay with your Motherland, to work for your compatriots, not only to open new businesses but also to change life around you in cities, towns and throughout your country.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>With President Biden delivering his own address Tuesday promising to stand with Ukraine until the end, Putin sent his own message of undying commitment to the fight.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHis <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/game\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" title=\"Game\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">game<\/a> plan has always been that he thinks that he can outlast the West,\u201d said Kasekamp. \u201cHe has always thought that OK, I\u2019m taking great losses now, but the unity of the West is fickle.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>And while Biden may have the resolve to support Ukraine for the long haul, that could quickly change if a Republican wins the White House in 2024, or if NATO unity breaks due to changes in other countries.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cGovernments come and go in the West, and Putin\u2019s staying forever, in his own mind,\u201d Kasekamp added.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>All three experts who spoke to The Hill were hopeful that this dynamic would push the West to drop its self-imposed limitations on support to Ukraine and help Kyiv win the war \u2014 realizing that the status quo ensures a continued slog with neither side gaining an upper hand.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRussia has to lose and has to lose big,\u201d said Kasekamp.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Goure said he believed the Biden administration was coming around to similar thinking.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis is rapidly coming to a point where\u2026politically, certainly this administration will not be able to stand a negotiated settlement, to split the baby down the middle,\u201d he said. \u201cSo that\u2019s the reason I\u2019m expecting to see the next round of advanced weapons being sent by the summer.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/policy\/international\/3868657-what-putins-speech-reveals-about-his-plans-in-ukraine\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What Putin\u2019s speech reveals about his plans in Ukraine Russian President Vladimir Putin began his address before Russia\u2019s parliament on Tuesday by underlining the stakes of his war in Ukraine. \u201cThis is a time of radical, irreversible change in the entire world, of crucial historical events that will determine the future of our country and&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":555038,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/d2e025db15094784b6c8e2afd3a02fc5-1.jpg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[134344,134343,134418,70375,134420,991,4975,140297,70868,73234],"class_list":["post-555037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-administration","tag-campaign","tag-congress-blog","tag-cybersecurity","tag-equilibrium-sustainability","tag-joe-biden","tag-russia","tag-start-treaty","tag-ukraine","tag-vladimir-putin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/555037","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=555037"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/555037\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/555038"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=555037"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=555037"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=555037"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}