{"id":557999,"date":"2023-03-01T11:51:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-01T08:51:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/ecb-rate-pressures-grow-ahead-of-eurozone-inflation-data\/"},"modified":"2023-03-01T11:51:00","modified_gmt":"2023-03-01T08:51:00","slug":"ecb-rate-pressures-grow-ahead-of-eurozone-inflation-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/ecb-rate-pressures-grow-ahead-of-eurozone-inflation-data\/","title":{"rendered":"#: ECB rate pressures grow ahead of eurozone inflation data"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3be6931d9a0\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3be6931d9a0\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/ecb-rate-pressures-grow-ahead-of-eurozone-inflation-data\/#%E2%80%9C_ECB_rate_pressures_grow_ahead_of_eurozone_inflation_data%E2%80%9D\" >&#8220;: ECB rate pressures grow ahead of eurozone inflation data&#8221;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/ecb-rate-pressures-grow-ahead-of-eurozone-inflation-data\/#Jamie_Chisholm\" >Jamie Chisholm<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9C_ECB_rate_pressures_grow_ahead_of_eurozone_inflation_data%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>&#8220;: ECB rate pressures grow ahead of eurozone inflation data&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\">\n<\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div class=\"article__side\">\n<div class=\"container--sticky not-active\">\n<div id=\"cx-next\" data-nosnippet>\n              <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap crawler\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0001730806\" role=\"document\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-layout=\"\n                inline\" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetArticleReader\n              \n              inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetArticleReader\n              article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"media-object-article-reader\">\n<div class=\"audioplayer\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0001730806\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"Listen to Article\" tabindex=\"-1\" id=\"articlereader\" data-show-title=\"false\" data-theme=\"wsj-article-reader\" data-show-header=\"false\" data-show-subscribe=\"false\" data-ads-enabled=\"true\" data-save-publication=\"false\">\n        <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       Markets now think the European Central Bank will have to raise interest rates to a record high 4% if it is to make headway in crushing inflation that has been running at more than four times its 2% target.<\/p>\n<p> It\u2019s a treacherous trajectory along which other important central banks like the Federal Reserve are also <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/trip-and-travel\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"10\" title=\"Trip &amp; Travel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">travel<\/a>ling, as they strive to combat the most intense price pressures in decades by slowing but not crashing their economies.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n       The difficulty of the task the ECB faces may become clearer on Thursday, when at 11 a.m. CET (5 a.m. Eastern) the first reading, or \u201cflash\u2019\u201d of the eurozone consumer prices report for February will be released.<\/p>\n<p>Annual consumer price inflation is expected by economists to fall from 8.6% year-over-year in January to 8.2% in February. Inflation hit a eurozone record of 10.6% in October amid surging energy prices.<\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<div style=\"padding-bottom:86.42857142857143%;\" data-subtype=\"photo\" class=\"image-container  responsive-media article__inset__image__image\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" itemprop=\"contentUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-733901?width=540&amp;size=1.156278229448961 540w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-733901?width=620&amp;size=1.156278229448961 620w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-733901?width=639&amp;size=1.156278229448961 639w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-733901?width=700&amp;size=1.156278229448961 700w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-733901?width=700&amp;size=1.156278229448961&amp;pixel_ratio=1.5 1050w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-733901?width=700&amp;size=1.156278229448961&amp;pixel_ratio=2 1400w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-733901?width=700&amp;size=1.156278229448961&amp;pixel_ratio=3 2100w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 639px) 100vw, (max-width: 979px) 620px, (max-width: 1299px) 540px, 700px\" src=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-733901?width=700&amp;height=605\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><\/div><figcaption class=\"wsj-article-caption article__inset__image__caption\" itemprop=\"caption\"><span class=\"wsj-article-credit article__inset__image__caption__credit\" itemprop=\"creator\"><br \/>\n            Source: ECB<br \/>\n          <\/span><br \/>\n  <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>       That pullback in inflation over recent months is based mainly on tumbling natural gas prices, helped by Europe\u2019s decision to wean itself of Russian energy, and a relatively mild winter.<\/p>\n<p>But there\u2019s the chance of dis<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ointment for those hoping to see declines, according to Nomura. \u201cWe expect the headline rate will be unchanged at 8.6%, but see core rising to 5.6%, which would be the highest since 1993,\u201d said analysts at the Japanese bank in a note published at the start of the week.<\/p>\n<p>And it would be wrong to place too much hope on recent falls in producer prices delivering similar declines in consumer prices, says Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThese sharp falls aren\u2019t being reflected in core prices, and wages are still rising. When the January CPI data was released, core CPI was at a record high of 5.2%. It has since been revised up to 5.3%. This is likely to be a big concern for the European Central Bank, and any lack of progress here is likely to be the driving force going forward, rather than continued weakness in headline inflation,\u201d says Hewson.<\/p>\n<p>One reason for a sticky headline rate are accelerating food prices. The U.K. is not in the eurozone but the inflationary pressures impacting the wider region were illustrated by <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a> on Tuesday that British grocery prices rose in the year to February by a record 17.1%.<\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            inline\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<div style=\"padding-bottom:65.28571428571428%;\" data-subtype=\"photo\" class=\"image-container  responsive-media article__inset__image__image\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" itemprop=\"contentUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-733900?width=540&amp;size=1.5311004784688995 540w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-733900?width=620&amp;size=1.5311004784688995 620w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-733900?width=639&amp;size=1.5311004784688995 639w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-733900?width=700&amp;size=1.5311004784688995 700w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-733900?width=700&amp;size=1.5311004784688995&amp;pixel_ratio=1.5 1050w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-733900?width=700&amp;size=1.5311004784688995&amp;pixel_ratio=2 1400w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-733900?width=700&amp;size=1.5311004784688995&amp;pixel_ratio=3 2100w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 639px) 100vw, (max-width: 979px) 620px, (max-width: 1299px) 540px, 700px\" src=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-733900?width=700&amp;height=457\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><\/div><figcaption class=\"wsj-article-caption article__inset__image__caption\" itemprop=\"caption\"><span class=\"wsj-article-credit article__inset__image__caption__credit\" itemprop=\"creator\"><br \/>\n            Euro area food prices: % year-on-year. Source: Citi<br \/>\n          <\/span><br \/>\n  <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>       Traders can\u2019t say they were not warned. Data released on Tuesday showed French inflation calculated using the European Union\u2019s harmonized standards, surprisingly rose to 7.2% year-over-year in February from 7% in January.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cx-membership-tile\"><\/div>\n<p>The same day Spain said its consumer prices climbed 5.8% year-over-year in January, after a 5.5% advance in December. German CPI data is due for release on Wednesday at 2 p.m. CET.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, it appears likely that companies\u2019 behavior will ensure inflationary pressures stick around. The Eurozone economic sentiment index released at the start of the week showed businesses\u2019 price expectations over the next 12 months \u201cremained elevated in a historical perspective,\u201d according to strategists at Citi. <\/p>\n<p>All told it suggests ECB President Christine Lagarde was right to take a hawkish stance, insisting of late that the central bank would not trim the size of rate hikes for the time being. The next ECB rate-setting meeting is March 16, and Lagarde is expected to raise the deposit rate from 2.5% to 3%. Just last July the rate was minus 50 basis points.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRecent comments from governing council members have focused on the need for \u2018robust\u2019 signs that core inflation is slowing before downshifting . If the ECB takes a narrow approach and uses the momentum of core inflation as the sole basis for the downshift decision, then the risks would be weighted in favour of another 50bp hike in May,\u201d says Mark Wall, chief Europe economist at Deutsche Bank.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis would raise the deposit facility rate to 3.50%. A larger hike in May would also raise the probability of a final hike and downshift to 25bp in June15 . This means there is a real risk of a terminal rate of 3.75%!\u201d Wall wrote in a note to clients.<\/p>\n<p>However, after the French and Spanish data were released on Tuesday, probabilities derived from swaps markets showed the ECB taking the deposit rate to 4%, a record high, by February 2024. The benchmark 2-year German bond yield<br \/>\n        TMBMKDE-02Y,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.000%\" channel=\"\" class=\"\">3.209%<\/bg-quote><span>,<\/span><br \/>\n       which is particularly sensitive to monetary policy, climbed to its highest level since 2008.<\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n                \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n          media-object\n          type-InsetDynamic\n            inline\n    scope-web|mobileapps\n  article__inset\n          article__inset--type-InsetDynamic\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"dynamic-inset-container article__inset__dynamic \">\n<div id=\"chart_6b5f8eaebcafc69afdca5a2d\">\n<div id=\"chart_inner_6b5f8eaebcafc69afdca5a2d\"><\/div>\n<p>  <script>\n    (function () {\n      const CHART_ENGINE_NAME = 'CustomDataChart_MARKETWATCH_0_9_7';\n      const LOAD_STATE_LOADING = \"LOAD_STATE_LOADING\";\n      const LOAD_STATE_LOADED = \"LOAD_STATE_LOADED\";\n      if 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The Europe-wide Stoxx 600<br \/>\n        SXXP,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210599654\/delayed\" class=\"positive\">+0.25%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       is up 7.5% already in 2023, with investors happy to see the sharp decline in energy costs and the revival of the Chinese economy after COVID restrictions were lifted.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, the prospect of higher interest rates is considered good news for bank earnings. The Eurostoxx banks index<br \/>\n        SX7E,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210599387\/delayed\" class=\"negative\">-0.63%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       is up 22%  so far in 2023 and sits at its highest level since May 2018.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the euro<br \/>\n        EURUSD,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210561242\/realtime\/sampled\" class=\"positive\">+0.61%<\/bg-quote><br \/>\n       is down about 1.5% for the year versus the U.S. dollar. For now the prospects of higher interest rates are doing little to support the single currency. That\u2019s because the buck is also benefiting from stubborn inflation and a relatively hawkish Federal Reserve.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>    <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author mobile-scrim hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"Jamie Chisholm\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"bio\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/topics\/journalists\/jamie-chisholm\",\"text\":\"Biography\"},{\"type\":\"link\",\"icon\":\"email\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/mailto:jamie.chisholm@marketwatch.com\",\"text\":\"jamie.chisholm@marketwatch.com\"}]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Jamie_Chisholm\"><\/span>Jamie Chisholm<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><ufc-follow-author-widget product=\"marketwatch\" author-id=\"273_MW\" author-name=\"Jamie Chisholm\" signin-url=\"https:\/\/accounts.marketwatch.com\/login?target=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Fstory%2Fecb-rate-pressures-grow-ahead-of-eurozone-inflation-data-ec60c980%3Frss%3D1%26siteid%3Drss\" panda-api=\"https:\/\/follow-api.marketwatch.com\"><\/ufc-follow-author-widget><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-71A6-8F69FE3C167F%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;: ECB rate pressures grow ahead of eurozone inflation data&#8221; Markets now think the European Central Bank will have to raise interest rates to a record high 4% if it is to make headway in crushing inflation that has been running at more than four times its 2% target. It\u2019s a treacherous trajectory along which&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":558000,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-686370\/social","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-557999","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/557999","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=557999"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/557999\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/558000"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=557999"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=557999"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=557999"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}