{"id":560281,"date":"2023-03-07T01:26:32","date_gmt":"2023-03-06T22:26:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/bitcoin-price-enters-transitional-phase-according-to-btc-on-chain-analysis\/"},"modified":"2023-03-07T01:26:32","modified_gmt":"2023-03-06T22:26:32","slug":"bitcoin-price-enters-transitional-phase-according-to-btc-on-chain-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-price-enters-transitional-phase-according-to-btc-on-chain-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"# Bitcoin price enters &#8216;transitional phase&#8217; according to BTC on-chain analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a34c11b07f4c\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a34c11b07f4c\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-price-enters-transitional-phase-according-to-btc-on-chain-analysis\/#%E2%80%9D_Bitcoin_price_enters_%E2%80%98transitional_phase_according_to_BTC_on-chain_analysis_%E2%80%9C\" >&#8221; Bitcoin price enters &#8216;transitional phase&#8217; according to BTC on-chain analysis  &#8220;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-price-enters-transitional-phase-according-to-btc-on-chain-analysis\/#Realized_price_metric_highlights_profit-taking\" >Realized price metric highlights profit-taking<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-price-enters-transitional-phase-according-to-btc-on-chain-analysis\/#Liquidity_inflows_increase_but_pale_in_comparision_to_2022\" >Liquidity inflows increase but pale in comparision to 2022<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-price-enters-transitional-phase-according-to-btc-on-chain-analysis\/#The_uptick_in_unrealized_Bitcoin_profits_mirrors_previous_cycles\" >The uptick in unrealized Bitcoin profits mirrors previous cycles<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9D_Bitcoin_price_enters_%E2%80%98transitional_phase_according_to_BTC_on-chain_analysis_%E2%80%9C\"><\/span>&#8221; Bitcoin price enters &#8216;transitional phase&#8217; according to BTC on-chain analysis  &#8220;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-48054ca8>The hopeful optimism of Bitcoin (BTC) traders seemed to dissipate in the first week of March as key on-chain metrics provided resistance.<\/p>\n<p>Now Bitcoin price is threatening a retest of the $22,000 level and a wave of short sellers would stand to profit if that occurred. If the short sellers\u2019 strike price hit, some analysts believe Bitcoin price could drop as low as $19,000. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-03\/1aa01b90-59b0-42ec-b66b-d945a202025f.jpg\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin options by strike price. Source: Coinglass<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>A handful of analysts still project BTC price to hit $25,000 in the short-term, on-chain data highlighting a few reasons for price resistance at higher levels.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Realized_price_metric_highlights_profit-taking\"><\/span>Realized price metric highlights profit-taking <span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Market participants\u2019 concern over the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate hikes and high inflation are heavy macro headwinds facing Bitcoin price and this has investors weighing the time value of money of BTC investments. To measure TVM on-chain, Bitcoin holders can be put into groups based on the amount of time they held BTC and average the acquisition cost. <\/p>\n<p>Investors that purchased BTC within the last 6-months benefited from the early bear market conditions and have an average realized price of $21,000, which places them in profit. The average market realized price across all BTC holders is $19,800, also currently in profit. <\/p>\n<p>Conversely, BTC held for over 6 months has a higher realized price than the rest of the market groups at $23,500. When Bitcoin reaches above $23,500, the holders that have seen little TVM return for over 6-months potentially put pressure on a breakout as they get antsy to lock in profits. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-03\/96798c19-3195-463f-8e3b-6fe5854e74b9.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin supply cost basis by time held. Source: Glassnode<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Liquidity_inflows_increase_but_pale_in_comparision_to_2022\"><\/span>Liquidity inflows increase but pale in comparision to 2022<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin price is highly reactive to interest rates and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) which puts a strain on risk assets. The negative impact of these factors is great for short sellers butbad for Bitcoin price. The best way for the Bitcoin price to withstand short-seller pressure is for new long liquidity and spot buyers to enter the market. <\/p>\n<p>Analyzing exchange net flows is a good way to measure new liquidity and currently this metric reflects a 34% uptick since the start of 2023, but it lags behind the yearly daily average of $1.6 billion. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-03\/88704e78-9f8b-416a-874a-46bcda3ae1d6.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin exchange volume. Source: Glassnode<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Currently, the <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a> consensus among analysts is that the ability to onboard new liquidity into the crypto market has been hindered by a crackdown on banks that support crypto-oriented businesses. <\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_uptick_in_unrealized_Bitcoin_profits_mirrors_previous_cycles\"><\/span>The uptick in unrealized Bitcoin profits mirrors previous cycles<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>While some Bitcoin investors were realizing profit, positive on-chain signals <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ear when looking at the Net Unrealized Profit \/ Loss metric (NUPL). The NUPL metric shows the difference between unrealized Bitcoin profit and unrealized loss within the BTC supply. <\/p>\n<p>According to Glassnode, NUPL metrics on March 6 <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/insights.glassnode.com\/the-week-onchain-week-10-2023\/\">show<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cSince mid-January, the weekly average of NUPL has shifted from a state of net unrealized loss to a positive condition. This indicates that the average Bitcoin holder is now holding a net unrealized profit of magnitude of approximately 15% of the market cap. This pattern resembles a market structure equivalent to transition phases in previous bear markets.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-03\/b5c2f6d8-c633-4ff1-b233-c0cc95fbe493.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin NUPL. Source: Glassnode<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>While Bitcoin\u2019s 2023 momentum may have taken a pause in mid-February and many headwinds remain, there are positive signs that the transition out of the deepest phase of bear market is near. <\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors\u2019 alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-price-enters-transitional-phase-according-to-btc-on-chain-analysis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8221; Bitcoin price enters &#8216;transitional phase&#8217; according to BTC on-chain analysis &#8220; The hopeful optimism of Bitcoin (BTC) traders seemed to dissipate in the first week of March as key on-chain metrics provided resistance. Now Bitcoin price is threatening a retest of the $22,000 level and a wave of short sellers would stand to profit&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":560282,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=1200\/https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-03\/4ea3790e-9369-4714-bc39-287a07e35142.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74862,74937,74858,74863,74860,73785],"class_list":["post-560281","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-bitcoin-regulation","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-cryptocurrency-exchange","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/560281","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=560281"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/560281\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/560282"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=560281"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=560281"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=560281"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}