{"id":571775,"date":"2023-04-25T22:56:26","date_gmt":"2023-04-25T19:56:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/sharp-decline-in-federal-tax-receipts-raises-serious-concerns-about-debt-ceiling\/"},"modified":"2023-04-25T22:56:26","modified_gmt":"2023-04-25T19:56:26","slug":"sharp-decline-in-federal-tax-receipts-raises-serious-concerns-about-debt-ceiling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/sharp-decline-in-federal-tax-receipts-raises-serious-concerns-about-debt-ceiling\/","title":{"rendered":"#Sharp decline in federal tax receipts raises serious concerns about debt ceiling"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3bba9947392\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3bba9947392\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/sharp-decline-in-federal-tax-receipts-raises-serious-concerns-about-debt-ceiling\/#Why_tax_revenue_is_falling_short\" >Why tax revenue is falling short<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/sharp-decline-in-federal-tax-receipts-raises-serious-concerns-about-debt-ceiling\/#Financial_markets_are_already_rattled\" >Financial markets are already rattled<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>The federal government is pulling in less tax revenue than expected, prompting concerns the early numbers could leave far less time for Congress to strike a deal to avoid a default on the national debt.<\/p>\n<p>Before tax figures started rolling in after last week\u2019s filing deadline, Congress <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>eared to have until sometime in late July or August to pass legislation to raise or suspend the debt limit. But some experts have warned that a major shortfall in tax revenue means the U.S. government could run out of cash as early as June.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p><strong>The stalemate:<\/strong> \u2018Reckless\u2019: Biden veto threat looms over GOP debt ceiling bill, White House says<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s a horserace between tax receipts and the House of Representatives and, ultimately, the Senate,\u201d said George Hall, economics professor at Brandeis University, in a Tuesday interview.<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. government has collected 35 percent less in tax revenue this year than at the same time in 2022, according to a\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.moodysanalytics.com\/-\/media\/article\/2023\/debt-limit-drama.pdf\">recent analysis<\/a>\u00a0released by Moody\u2019s Analytics economists Mark Zandi and Bernard Yaros.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Zandi noted in an interview that it\u2019s \u201cnot a surprise\u201d the receipts are coming in at lower levels than last year \u2014 when the government saw a budget surplus of more than $300 billion in April 2022, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbo.gov\/system\/files\/2022-05\/57974-MBR.pdf\">according to estimates<\/a>\u00a0from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). But he added receipts are \u201ccoming even weaker than\u201d anticipated.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThey\u2019re going to come to a point in early June when they don\u2019t have enough cash to pay everyone on time,\u201d Zandi said. The Moody\u2019s Analytics team\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.moodysanalytics.com\/-\/media\/article\/2023\/going-down-the-debt-limit-rabbit-hole.pdf\">previously estimated<\/a>\u00a0lawmakers had until sometime in mid-August to act on the debt ceiling.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The stakes:<\/strong>\u00a0Here\u2019s how the debt limit fight could impact the banking crisis<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Goldman Sachs economists also noted in a report last week that while they still believe the U.S. won\u2019t run out of cash until July, the \u201codds of an early June deadline have edged up\u201d when looking at non-withheld income tax receipts.<\/p>\n<p>The Treasury could see another boost in non-withheld tax payments around a mid-June deadline, according to experts, which could buy lawmakers more time. Even so, they won\u2019t know until they receive further data from the Treasury in the coming days.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_tax_revenue_is_falling_short\"><\/span>Why tax revenue is falling short<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1400\" height=\"787\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/yellenjanet_032223gn02_w.jpg?w=900\" alt=\"Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen\" class=\"wp-image-3928161\" srcset=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/yellenjanet_032223gn02_w.jpg 1400w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/yellenjanet_032223gn02_w.jpg?resize=160,90 160w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/yellenjanet_032223gn02_w.jpg?resize=300,169 300w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/yellenjanet_032223gn02_w.jpg?resize=768,432 768w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/yellenjanet_032223gn02_w.jpg?resize=1280,720 1280w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/yellenjanet_032223gn02_w.jpg?resize=645,363 645w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/yellenjanet_032223gn02_w.jpg?resize=320,180 320w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/yellenjanet_032223gn02_w.jpg?resize=256,144 256w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/yellenjanet_032223gn02_w.jpg?resize=512,288 512w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/yellenjanet_032223gn02_w.jpg?resize=640,360 640w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/yellenjanet_032223gn02_w.jpg?resize=876,492 876w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/yellenjanet_032223gn02_w.jpg?resize=960,540 960w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/yellenjanet_032223gn02_w.jpg?resize=50,28 50w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 899px) 100vw, 876px\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em><sub>Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen answers questions during a Senate Subcommittee on Financial Services and <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General<\/a> Government hearing to discuss the President\u2019s FY 2024 budget for the Department on Wednesday, March 22, 2023. (Credit: The Hill)<\/sub><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Experts have named a list of factors contributing to the April performance.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Garrett Watson, a senior policy analyst and modeling manager at the Tax Foundation, pointed to a decline in capital gains realizations \u2014\u00a0profits made from financial investments \u2014 which are taxed by the federal government.<\/p>\n<p>Watson said the nation saw \u201cunusual strength\u201d in investment profits as markets boomed back from the onset of COVID-19 and the aftereffects of inflation. That surge of tax revenue has reversed as markets have weakened.<\/p>\n<p>Watson also pointed to a decline in corporate tax receipts, which is still only about 10 percent of overall tax revenue collection.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s not a large source of revenue, but it does contribute to it,\u201d Watson said.<\/p>\n<p>Other experts have also questioned the impact of temporary tax relief provided to some disaster victims in places like California could have on receipts. But Watson doubted the impact the relief would have on the debt limit timeline.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s unlikely to make a difference between [an] early June and late August X-date \u2014 unless we really squeaked by,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd even in that scenario where, let\u2019s say it\u2019s a $50 billion difference that gets us to the June payments that saves us, that\u2019s going to have its own major market impacts, I suspect.\u201d<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr5_ab\"><\/aside>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Financial_markets_are_already_rattled\"><\/span>Financial markets are already rattled<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1400\" height=\"787\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/NYSE_stocks_081022_AP_Seth-Wenig.jpeg?w=900\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3727195\" srcset=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/NYSE_stocks_081022_AP_Seth-Wenig.jpeg 1400w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/NYSE_stocks_081022_AP_Seth-Wenig.jpeg?resize=160,90 160w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/NYSE_stocks_081022_AP_Seth-Wenig.jpeg?resize=300,169 300w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/NYSE_stocks_081022_AP_Seth-Wenig.jpeg?resize=768,432 768w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/NYSE_stocks_081022_AP_Seth-Wenig.jpeg?resize=1280,720 1280w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/NYSE_stocks_081022_AP_Seth-Wenig.jpeg?resize=645,363 645w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/NYSE_stocks_081022_AP_Seth-Wenig.jpeg?resize=320,180 320w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/NYSE_stocks_081022_AP_Seth-Wenig.jpeg?resize=256,144 256w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/NYSE_stocks_081022_AP_Seth-Wenig.jpeg?resize=512,288 512w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/NYSE_stocks_081022_AP_Seth-Wenig.jpeg?resize=640,360 640w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/NYSE_stocks_081022_AP_Seth-Wenig.jpeg?resize=876,492 876w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/NYSE_stocks_081022_AP_Seth-Wenig.jpeg?resize=960,540 960w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/11\/NYSE_stocks_081022_AP_Seth-Wenig.jpeg?resize=50,28 50w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 899px) 100vw, 876px\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em><sub>Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Aug. 10, 2022. (AP Photo\/Seth Wenig, file)<\/sub><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>House GOP leaders are looking to pass a sweeping package by the end of the week that seeks to raise the debt limit, paired with a list of partisan proposals to curb spending. However, the plan faces a rocky road to passage in the lower chamber and even greater chances of failure if it makes it to the Senate, where Democrats hold control of the body and have come out in opposition against the measure.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Crunch time:<\/strong> Banking worries resurface as debt ceiling vote rattles market<\/p>\n<p>House Republicans are adamant that the nation will not default this year. But Hall said the partisan impasse on the debt limit already could be affecting the Treasury market, noting \u201cyields on one-month bills are plummeting because everybody\u2019s investing in the ultra-short market.\u201d<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr6_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Hall said the difference between interest rates on 30-day and 90-day Treasury bills is usually \u201crelatively small,\u201d but the spread in between both \u201chas widened dramatically in the last week or two.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat you see is that investors are reluctant to buy Treasury bills that are due in 90 days, and so the prices of those bills are going down, which means the interest rate on those is going up,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd the price of Treasury bills due in 30 days is going up, which means the interest rate, or the yield, is going down on those.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNo one wants a Treasury bill that\u2019s gonna come due in July or August. They want stuff that\u2019s going to come due sooner,\u201d he said, adding, \u201cYou already see the private sector participants are now taking this into account when making their investment decisions.\u201d<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr7_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Watson also argued \u201cmarket reaction is the bigger issue,\u201d including \u201cwhere are the spreads looking [and] how are equity markets receiving this.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cDepending on how that\u2019s interpreted by markets, that could be an issue,\u201d Watson said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2023 Nexstar <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Media<\/a> Inc. All rights reserved. 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Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/business\/3971031-sharp-decline-in-federal-tax-receipts-raise-serious-concerns-about-debt-ceiling\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The federal government is pulling in less tax revenue than expected, prompting concerns the early numbers could leave far less time for Congress to strike a deal to avoid a default on the national debt. Before tax figures started rolling in after last week\u2019s filing deadline, Congress appeared to have until sometime in late July&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":571776,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/643ea21daf1e45.37842354-e1682452543711.jpeg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[134344,117,134343,991,139420,134345,4965],"class_list":["post-571775","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-administration","tag-business","tag-campaign","tag-joe-biden","tag-mark-zandi","tag-state-watch","tag-technology"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/571775","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=571775"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/571775\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/571776"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=571775"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=571775"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=571775"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}