{"id":574455,"date":"2023-05-14T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-14T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/debt-ceiling-fight-holds-reminders-of-2011-except-maybe-worse\/"},"modified":"2023-05-14T13:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-05-14T10:00:00","slug":"debt-ceiling-fight-holds-reminders-of-2011-except-maybe-worse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/debt-ceiling-fight-holds-reminders-of-2011-except-maybe-worse\/","title":{"rendered":"#Debt ceiling fight holds reminders of 2011 \u2014 except maybe worse"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/bidenjoe_mccarthykevin_0512223gn-ag_echoes.png?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>The debt ceiling fight gripping Washington this month bears echoes of a similar clash in 2011, when a Democratic president squared off against a Republican House in a fight that dragged on for months, pushed the country to the brink of default and led to the first credit downgrade in U.S. history.<\/p>\n<p>Except this time might be worse.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>As President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) scramble to find common ground on legislation to hike the government\u2019s borrowing cap, they\u2019re operating in a much tougher environment than that faced by the top negotiators a dozen years ago, according to lawmakers, economists and political observers of all s<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/trip-and-travel\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"10\" title=\"Trip &amp; Travel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">trip<\/a>es.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The country is more polarized, the sides have been more unyielding, a number of Republicans \u2014\u00a0including former President Trump \u2014 say they\u2019re willing to allow a default to secure their objectives.<\/p>\n<p>And McCarthy\u2019s slim majority leaves him little room to maneuver within a conservative GOP conference that expects him to hold the line on spending cuts \u2014\u00a0or risk a challenge to his gavel.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The combination has raised the odds of an unprecedented default and rattled some veterans of past debt ceiling fights, who say this is the most precarious of them all.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis is the first debt-ceiling situation that I felt was not going to be abated in time to protect our country,\u201d Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.), a 19-year veteran of Capitol Hill, said. \u201cI\u2019ve never seen anything like this, so this could be one of the biggest political mistakes in the history of the republic.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Thomas Kahn, who served as senior counsel to Democrats on the House Budget Committee for decades, including during the 2011 battle, agreed, citing three distinct reasons.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>First, Republicans have shifted to the right over the last decade, and the cuts they\u2019re demanding are much steeper than those of 2011. Second, House conservatives, fueled by Trump, <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ear more willing to accept default. And third, McCarthy\u2019s delicate position leading a tiny and restive majority has made him a weaker Speaker than those of the past, one who made a lot of promises to obtain the gavel and now \u201cdepends on some of the most hard-right House Republicans to stay in power,\u201d Kahn said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFor all those reasons I think the situation is much more dire than 2011,\u201d Kahn, now at American University, said Friday by phone. \u201cAnd I think the chances of default are much higher.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Yet it\u2019s not only Republicans who have hardened their tactics this year. Biden, unlike former President Obama in 2011, has said he\u2019s unwilling to negotiate spending cuts as part of the proposal to raise the debt ceiling, arguing that those two conversations should be divorced and follow different legislative tracks.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Philip Wallach, senior fellow at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute, said that approach is well outside \u201cthe historic norm.\u201d He suggested Biden\u2019s position is untenable given the Republicans\u2019 control of the House and their recent success in passing legislation that married spending cuts with a debt-limit increase.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s a very novel and in some ways aggressive position that seems to be built on the hope that the Republican majority in the House is so narrow that it will just somehow disintegrate and let him have his way,\u201d Wallach said. \u201cThat seemed more likely a month ago than it does today.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Still, Wallach emphasized that McCarthy is in no easy spot, squeezed between a default on one side and conservative pressure on the other.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cThis is the first real test of McCarthy\u2019s mettle as Speaker,\u201d Wallach said. \u201cWe just don\u2019t know whether he\u2019s actually the kind of person who can put together and sell a deal to a lot of his members. I think there\u2019s a lot more skepticism about that than with John Boehner.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>If the cast of characters is different this year, the contours of the debate mirror those of a dozen years ago.<\/p>\n<p>The 2011 saga matched Obama against then-Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), who had taken the gavel the same year on the wings of a \u201cTea Party\u201d movement that demanded deficit reduction and rejected any increase in the government\u2019s borrowing cap without sharp cuts in federal spending. The two powerbrokers spent months working privately on a compromise, but the talks fell apart after a bipartisan group of senators intervened with a plan of their own, including tax hikes more significant than Boehner and his conservative conference were willing to accept.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr5_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201c[A]dding more revenue \u2026 would have made it impossible to get enough Republicans on board,\u201d Boehner wrote in his 2021 memoir, \u201cOn the House.\u201d \u201cSo the deal was basically dead.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A default was averted at the 11th hour by the passage of the bipartisan Budget Control Act (BCA), which lifted the debt ceiling and created a bipartisan commission, known as the Supercommittee, charged with drafting recommendations to curb long-term deficit spending.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>But the close call didn\u2019t do much to instill market confidence, prompting Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s to downgrade the United States\u2019s triple-A credit rating for the first time in the country\u2019s history. And the Supercommittee ultimately proved unsuccessful, leading some political experts to predict that a similar escape hatch likely won\u2019t fly with conservatives this time around.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr6_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cWhat usually happens in cases like this is that the House Republicans use the imperative of raising the debt ceiling as leverage to cut a budget deal with the White House \u2013 and that may yet happen,\u201d David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution, said in an email. \u201cBut it doesn\u2019t look like House Republicans will settle for a \u2018special committee\u2019 to come up with deficit-reduction measures, the resolution of the 2011 standoff.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The volatile political climate means there\u2019s a \u201chigher chance than usual that Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling before the Treasury runs out of cash,\u201d Wessel added. That\u2019s \u201cnot the most likely outcome,\u201d he continued, \u201cbut way too big a possibility.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Amid the standoff, Biden, McCarthy and other congressional leaders are insisting they\u2019ll work out a deal in time to prevent a default.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr7_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>The president hosted the top four congressional leaders at the White House last Tuesday to launch the talks in earnest. And although a second meeting scheduled for Friday was called off, leadership staffers have continued the negotiations, and voices on both sides said the cancellation was no indication that progress had stalled.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere are negotiations happening for real and I think that\u2019s very good <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a> for our country,\u201d Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) told reporters.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Still, the Treasury Department has warned that the government could exhaust the ability to pay all of its obligations as early as June 1, leaving a short window for the parties to reach a compromise. And that\u2019s led to plenty of speculation that the sides will have to lean on some alternative strategy for preventing a default.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Some lawmakers are hoping Biden will invoke the 14th Amendment and simply continue to pay down all the country\u2019s debts, despite the statutory cap \u2014 an untested and highly disputed legal strategy that Biden nonetheless says he\u2019s eyeing.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou can\u2019t leave this up to reckless abandon,\u201d Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.) said. \u201cIf he has to, he\u2019s got to utilize the 14th Amendment.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Others, like Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), have said\u00a0it will require a market crash\u00a0before House Republicans are willing to move a debt-limit bill through the lower chamber.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Wessel, of Brookings, noted the possibility that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who has a long history negotiating budget compromises with Biden, will step off of the sidelines and broker a deal between McCarthy and the president.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>And a number of voices think the most likely scenario is that Congress will move a short-term debt limit extension that buys negotiators more time and, perhaps, harmonizes the default deadline with that for funding the government.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat\u2019s more likely than not what would happen, but I would not foreclose the possibility of a default of a couple days,\u201d said Kahn, of American University.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI hate to say that, and I pray that doesn\u2019t happen,\u201d he added. \u201cBut I think it is certainly a very real possibility.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><em>Emily Brooks contributed reporting.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2023 Nexstar <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Media<\/a> Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/house\/4002657-debt-ceiling-fight-holds-reminders-of-2011-except-maybe-worse\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The debt ceiling fight gripping Washington this month bears echoes of a similar clash in 2011, when a Democratic president squared off against a Republican House in a fight that dragged on for months, pushed the country to the brink of default and led to the first credit downgrade in U.S. history. Except this time&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":574456,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/bidenjoe_mccarthykevin_0512223gn-ag_echoes.png?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[134417,117,70363,116734,138150,143128,90482,991,102745,35813,115,125973,134345],"class_list":["post-574455","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-blog-briefing-room","tag-business","tag-civil-rights","tag-debt-ceiling","tag-debt-limit","tag-emanuel-cleaver","tag-house","tag-joe-biden","tag-john-boehner","tag-kevin-mccarthy","tag-news","tag-obama","tag-state-watch"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/574455","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=574455"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/574455\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/574456"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=574455"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=574455"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=574455"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}