{"id":580389,"date":"2023-06-27T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-27T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/how-wagners-mutiny-left-putin-catastrophically-weakened\/"},"modified":"2023-06-27T13:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-06-27T10:00:00","slug":"how-wagners-mutiny-left-putin-catastrophically-weakened","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/how-wagners-mutiny-left-putin-catastrophically-weakened\/","title":{"rendered":"#How Wagner\u2019s mutiny left Putin \u2018catastrophically weakened\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/MR-putin_062623ap.jpg?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Russian President Vladimir Putin emerged from the aftermath of an armed rebellion over the weekend with shakier control over his country and growing questions about how long he can maintain power.<\/p>\n<p>Putin avoided a violent clash with Wagner Group in Moscow as the private military company\u2019s chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, a longtime ally, halted his advance just more than 100 miles from the capital.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Though Putin reportedly struck a deal with Prigozhin to halt the march, the mutiny marked the strongest challenge to Putin\u2019s leadership yet.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s no way Putin is going to recover from this. He will not recover,\u201d said Olga Lautman, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). \u201cHe has been left like the emperor with no clothes.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Prigozhin captured a key city in southern Russia with little resistance, saw some Russian soldiers join his vanguard and was welcomed and cheered on by crowds, according to videos shared by Russian Telegram accounts.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Putin on Monday said those who participated in the rebellion will face \u201cjustice.\u201d But the Russian leader <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JuliaDavisNews\/status\/1673179167293046790\">is being questioned<\/a>, even by state-run <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">media<\/a> channels, for letting the mercenary leader off the hook.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In a deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, the Wagner boss will relocate to Belarus and terrorism charges against him will be dropped \u2014 though it\u2019s unclear how long either commitment will last.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Lautman said Putin\u2019s downfall began around October of last year as Ukraine retook territory occupied by Russian forces, and critics allied with Russia, such as Prigozhin, grew bold enough to criticize the Russian military and government.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>She noted that the struggle in Ukraine has also seen anti-Kremlin revolutionary groups assaulting towns in Russia, several drone attacks in Moscow and Prigozhin\u2019s increasing challenges to the Kremlin\u2019s authority.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Lautman added that while the conflict has simmered down, the feud is far from over, describing the deal as a \u201ccooling off period.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis is just the beginning of the chaos,\u201d said Lautman, who predicted the relative ease of Prigozhin\u2019s march on Moscow will embolden other revolutionaries in Russia.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Anna Arutunyan, a fellow with the Wilson Center, said Putin is \u201ccatastrophically weakened\u201d after the insurrection attempt, especially because the deal to defuse the crisis was made with the help of Belarus.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLeaving others to sort it out does begin to make him look really vulnerable,\u201d she said. \u201cIt\u2019s symptomatic of a weakened leader.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>While some analysts say Putin could recover and stay in power for another decade or longer, Arutunyan predicted it could be the beginning of the end of his leadership. She said the incident was especially troubling for Putin because it showed his inability to control competing elites he has historically played off against each other.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cPutin relies on businessmen and nonstate actors, thinking he can control them. And then when rivalries come to the surface, he steps back and just thinks that they\u2019ll resolve it on their own,\u201d she said. \u201cThey don\u2019t.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Prigozhin has a long relationship with Putin. Before he founded Wagner Group in 2014, he was a restaurant and catering magnate known as \u201cPutin\u2019s chef\u201d because of his ties\u00a0to the Kremlin.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The businessman played a leading role in online efforts to manipulate the 2016 U.S. election and is accused of horrendous human rights abuses for Wagner\u2019s extensive operations in developing countries in Africa and the Middle East.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr5_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Prigozhin has remained an influential partner of Putin\u2019s, allowing the Kremlin to gain sway in some countries without direct involvement. But the war in Ukraine, which Wagner joined in spring 2022, changed the relationship dramatically.<\/p>\n<p>The first signs of an incoming revolt emerged months ago, when Prigozhin began publicly slamming Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the commander overseeing the war in Ukraine, for failing to arm his men with enough supplies.<\/p>\n<p>The dispute took a worse turn after Wagner took the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, when Prigozhin accused Russian soldiers of planting explosives on an escape route and of firing on his fighters when they moved to disable them. After Bakhmut, Prigozhin also embarked on what <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ears to have been a media blitz, accusing Moscow elites of corruption and even hinting at a revolution.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr6_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>But the Kremlin\u2019s attempt to force Prigozhin to sign a contract that would give Moscow greater control over his company proved to be the decisive push in the confrontation.<\/p>\n<p>Ahead of a July 1 contract deadline, Prigozhin released a video Friday accusing Moscow of lying about the war in Ukraine. He said the war was never intended to protect ethnic Russians, instead saying elites wanted Ukrainian territory for its resources.<\/p>\n<p>Russia\u2019s Federal Security Service quickly opened a criminal case against Prigozhin around the same time, as the mercenary chief claimed Russian forces bombarded a Wagner camp in Ukraine. Moscow denied the strike.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr7_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Prigozhin then announced his march into Russian territory, forcing Putin to publicly denounce a \u201cbetrayal\u201d in a televised address without naming Prigozhin directly.<\/p>\n<p>As many Putin allies stayed on the sidelines, Lukashenko brokered the deal between Putin and Prigozhin on Saturday, de-escalating the conflict with Wagner forces just 120 miles from Moscow.<\/p>\n<p>Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the event was \u201cextraordinary,\u201d noting that in February 2022, Putin was attempting to overthrow Kyiv \u2014 but was now struggling to defend his own capitol.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat we\u2019ve seen is Russia having to defend Moscow, its capital, against mercenaries of his own making,\u201d <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/meet-the-press\/video\/full-blinken-russia-mutiny-is-putin-s-latest-failure-in-ukraine-war-184823877533\">Blinken told NBC News on Sunday<\/a>. \u201cSo in and of itself, that\u2019s extraordinary.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Prigozhin claims that he was not moving to oust Putin but marched toward the Kremlin to protest \u201cinjustice\u201d and prove how weak Russia\u2019s security situation was.<\/p>\n<p>Some analysts said the Wagner boss may have sought to overthrow Putin but realized closer to Moscow how deadly the fighting would be.<\/p>\n<p>Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Center, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Stanovaya\/status\/1672991911538196482\">tweeted that<\/a> Prigozhin\u2019s move was made out of desperation after heavy losses in Bakhmut and the \u201cstate machine\u201d turning against him.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Stanovaya said the Wagner boss wanted to put himself in a negotiation position with Putin, who had largely ignored his feud with the Ministry of Defense. While she said Putin was dealt a \u201csevere blow,\u201d she conceded the Russian leader prevented the worst outcome.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI want to emphasize that image has always been a secondary concern for Putin,\u201d she wrote. \u201cSetting optics aside, Putin objectively resolved the Wagner and Prigozhin problem by dissolving the former and expelling the latter. The situation would have been far worse if it had culminated in a bloody mess in the outskirts of Moscow.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Putin has also yet to cede to Prigozhin\u2019s main demands, such as ousting Shoigu and Gerasimov from power. Shoigu appeared in a Russian Defense Ministry video Monday for the first time since the rebellion.<\/p>\n<p>Still, Prigozhin remains powerful as a populist figure and says he still maintains control over most of his Wagner forces. One possible explanation for why Putin chose to make a deal with Prigozhin was over concerns about his influence, said Ivan Fomin, a democracy fellow at CEPA.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFor Putin, it was not acceptable to see this civil war in the streets,\u201d Fomin said. \u201cMaybe he was concerned about the capacity of the National Guard, not because they were not capable, but maybe he was afraid they would side with Prigozhin.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/policy\/defense\/4068792-how-wagners-mutiny-left-putin-catastrophically-weakened\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Russian President Vladimir Putin emerged from the aftermath of an armed rebellion over the weekend with shakier control over his country and growing questions about how long he can maintain power. Putin avoided a violent clash with Wagner Group in Moscow as the private military company\u2019s chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, a longtime ally, halted his advance&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":580390,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/MR-putin_062623ap.jpg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[134343,134353,134447,124783,115,134904,73234,140048],"class_list":["post-580389","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-campaign","tag-court-battles","tag-energy-and-environment","tag-international","tag-news","tag-russia-ukraine-war","tag-vladimir-putin","tag-wagner-group"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/580389","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=580389"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/580389\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/580390"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=580389"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=580389"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=580389"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}