{"id":580459,"date":"2023-06-28T02:05:03","date_gmt":"2023-06-27T23:05:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/whats-next-for-wagner-and-prigozhin-as-putin-rages-over-rebellion\/"},"modified":"2023-06-28T02:05:03","modified_gmt":"2023-06-27T23:05:03","slug":"whats-next-for-wagner-and-prigozhin-as-putin-rages-over-rebellion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/whats-next-for-wagner-and-prigozhin-as-putin-rages-over-rebellion\/","title":{"rendered":"#What\u2019s next for Wagner and Prigozhin as Putin rages over rebellion"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/prigozhinyevgeny_062423_AP.jpg?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Days after an aborted rebellion in Russia, much of the world\u2019s attention has shifted to what\u2019s next for the mercenary Wagner Group and its high-profile founder Yevgeny Prigozhin.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Publicly, the negotiated deal between Prigozhin and Russian President Vladimir Putin involved the Wagner chief\u2019s exile to Belarus and the dropping of terrorism charges against him.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Yet experts say Prigozhin is far from safe, as Putin publicly fumes over the mutiny. And it\u2019s unclear what the deal means for the future of Wagner, which has extensive holdings and influence across the world, particularly in developing countries in Africa, as well as ongoing operations in the Middle East and Latin America.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In televised addresses this week, Putin said the \u201cmajority of Wagner Group soldiers and commanders are also Russian patriots\u201d and offered them a choice: either sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense or other Russian agency, return home, or go to Belarus.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEveryone is free to decide on their own,\u201d Putin said.<\/p>\n<p>Those options will likely allow the group to remain intact \u2014 for now. However, Prigozhin\u2019s continued involvement, or further acts of provocation, could change Putin\u2019s equation.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>David Salvo, the managing director of the Alliance for Securing Democracy at the German Marshall Fund, said it was \u201chard to imagine\u201d Prigozhin remaining in control, predicting he would either be assassinated or left to wither in exile.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t see how he retains influence without the company,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd it\u2019s hard to imagine a scenario in which Putin allows him to retain control over this massive operation because of how much influence and power he accrued.\u201d<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Salvo expects Wagner to be \u201ds<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/trip-and-travel\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"10\" title=\"Trip &amp; Travel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">trip<\/a>ped for parts\u201d and broken down into several different private military companies headed by Putin loyalists.<\/p>\n<p>That could be in motion already as the Russian Defense Ministry said Wagner Group will begin to hand over its heavy weapons to the Kremlin\u2019s military, per the agreement struck with Prigozhin.<\/p>\n<p>Breaking apart Wagner would enable the Russian president to continue benefiting from Wagner operations across the globe \u2014 including on the frontline in Ukraine \u2014 and prevent the concentration of too much power under one figure, as h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ened with Prigozhin, Salvo added.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cOne of the reasons why he was so quick to strike a deal, rather than jail or kill Prigozhin, is because the Russian military relies on the mercenaries. They need these guys as cannon fodder on the front lines. And not only that, they\u2019re elite-performing cannon fodder,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s to Putin\u2019s advantage to get as many of these guys back to the front under a different flag as possible.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Prigozhin\u2019s short-lived uprising erupted after a long-festering feud between him and Russian military officials. The Wagner army rumbled unopposed for hundreds of miles from southern Russia toward Moscow before abruptly calling off the march.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Putin has since sought to reassert his control, calling the aborted mutiny \u201ca stab in the back of our country and our people\u201d during Monday\u2019s address. \u201cThey wanted Russians to fight each other,\u201d he said, without naming Prigozhin.<\/p>\n<p>Prigozhin\u2019s move into exile also calls into question his vast involvement in Russian commerce and politics, from natural resource exploitation, propaganda operations, and a catering business with millions worth of Kremlin contracts.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPrigozhin is most likely going to take steps now to shore up his control of this entire business network,\u201d Catrina Doxsee, an expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told The Hill.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr5_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>She said Wagner and its related shell companies have been instrumental in expanding Russia\u2019s influence and providing clear economic gains to the country, particularly in Africa.<\/p>\n<p>The Wagner leader will not let go of his empire easily, setting the stage for a fight with Moscow and potential splintering, Doxsee said.<\/p>\n<p>Putin may already be laying the groundwork to bury Prigozhin under corruption charges, as he has with other perceived rivals.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr6_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>The Russian president <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/kremlin.ru\/events\/president\/news\/71535\">held a meeting Tuesday with defense leaders<\/a> at which he admitted funding Wagner Group, with Moscow paying nearly $1 billion to support the company from May 2022 to May 2023 alone.<\/p>\n<p>Putin also said Prigozhin\u2019s Concord catering company would be investigated for charging the government while being funded with another roughly $1 billion.<\/p>\n<p>As for Prigozhin himself, he appears to have arrived in Belarus as part of the deal brokered by Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko over the weekend, though he hasn\u2019t been seen since he left a southern Russia military headquarters on Saturday.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr7_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Lukashenko announced Tuesday the mercenary chief\u2019s arrival. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said Tuesday the U.S. doesn\u2019t \u201chave any reason to doubt the announcement made by the government of Belarus.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The consensus among Russian military bloggers, war analysts, and officials appears to be that Wagner Group is too important to give up, but tighter regulation and a change in leadership might be necessary.<\/p>\n<p>Andrey Kartapolov, chairman of the State Duma defense committee, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vedomosti.ru\/politics\/articles\/2023\/06\/25\/982216-kartapolov-zakon-reguliroval-deyatelnost-chvk\">told the newspaper Vedomosti<\/a> that lawmakers were working on legislation to exercise greater control over private military companies.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>However, Kartapolov noted the Wager company is the most \u201ccombat ready\u201d division of Russia\u2019s fighting forces and that dissolving the company would be disastrous and benefit the western security alliance NATO.<\/p>\n<p>He also said Prigozhin\u2019s soldiers \u201cdid not do anything reprehensible\u201d and were following orders, arguing it was best to \u201cchange leadership.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe one who raised the rebellion, he must answer,\u201d Kartapolov said, while admitting that installing \u201csomeone there who will be more loyal, more specific, but whom the participants will respect and perceive is a difficult job.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Experts have also speculated that Putin is unlikely to let Prigozhin leave the scene in peace.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn terms of long-term safety, I think he does have a lot to worry about,\u201d she said. \u201cI don\u2019t think that we\u2019ll see him assassinated in the short term. I think that would be yet another sign of weakness for Putin to back down over the weekend, only to covertly assassinate Prigozhin shortly after.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Instead, Doxsee predicted Russia could be setting Prigozhin up for a criminal case and show trial, using him as an example for Putin to assert his power over Wagner and deter any others who might look to challenge his power.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>While Prigozhin has claimed wide support for the march on Moscow, it has also angered some hard-liners who previously supported his bloody efforts in Ukraine.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Prominent Russian blogger Alexander Kots <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/sashakots\/40577\">wrote angrily<\/a> that Prigozhin\u2019s forces downed seven aircraft during the march.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSix downed helicopters and one plane is not justice. Blocking Russian cities is not justice. Capturing military airfields is not justice,\u201d Kots wrote. In another post, he predicted the downfall of Wagner. \u201dIt is a pity that the story of the legendary military unit ends just like that.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2023 Nexstar <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Media<\/a> Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/policy\/defense\/4070597-whats-next-for-wagner-and-prigozhin-as-putin-rages-over-rebellion\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Days after an aborted rebellion in Russia, much of the world\u2019s attention has shifted to what\u2019s next for the mercenary Wagner Group and its high-profile founder Yevgeny Prigozhin.\u00a0 Publicly, the negotiated deal between Prigozhin and Russian President Vladimir Putin involved the Wagner chief\u2019s exile to Belarus and the dropping of terrorism charges against him. Yet&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":580460,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/prigozhinyevgeny_062423_AP.jpg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[134344,134417,134343,73798,134661,134904,134345,73234,140048],"class_list":["post-580459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-administration","tag-blog-briefing-room","tag-campaign","tag-defense","tag-energy-environment","tag-russia-ukraine-war","tag-state-watch","tag-vladimir-putin","tag-wagner-group"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/580459","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=580459"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/580459\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/580460"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=580459"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=580459"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=580459"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}