{"id":580934,"date":"2023-07-01T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-01T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/putin-crackdown-on-wagner-rebellion-creates-new-weak-points-in-russian-military\/"},"modified":"2023-07-01T13:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-07-01T10:00:00","slug":"putin-crackdown-on-wagner-rebellion-creates-new-weak-points-in-russian-military","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/putin-crackdown-on-wagner-rebellion-creates-new-weak-points-in-russian-military\/","title":{"rendered":"#Putin crackdown on Wagner rebellion creates new weak points in Russian military\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/wagner-group-members_062423getty_wagner-group-russia.jpg?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>The Wagner Group rebellion is expected to have a harmful ripple effect across Russia\u2019s armed forces as the Kremlin works to weed out supporters of the attempted insurrection, with internal divisions and strife likely to weaken fighting capabilities.<\/p>\n<p>Shakeups in Russia\u2019s military command could further impact the leadership\u00a0overseeing the war in Ukraine,\u00a0analysts say<strong>,<\/strong>\u00a0while Russian soldiers already struggling with a morale issue are now exposed to political infighting and questions about loyalty.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to adopt the\u00a0hardline position\u00a0on fighting the war in Ukraine backed by Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and his supporters,\u00a0which includes a\u00a0more aggressive push on the battlefield and committing more resources. Putin\u2019s crackdown across the military is demanding loyalty and suppressing dissent as the Russian leader seeks to repair his image.<\/p>\n<p>But Putin\u2019s aggressive reshaping of the military could alienate and divide his troops,\u00a0as it\u2019s unclear how much support Prigozhin had across the ranks.<\/p>\n<p>The short-lived uprising last weekend saw Prigozhin lead thousands of Wagner fighters to take a city with a major military base in Rostov-on-Don, where Prigozhin was seen conversing with military leaders. Wagner then marched on Moscow with little resistance before a deal was reached to scuttle the rebellion and provide safety guarantees to the mercenary chief.<\/p>\n<p>With questions mounting over which <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a>s may have supported Prigozhin, Putin has mobilized investigative agents to\u00a0interview hundreds of Russian soldiers\u00a0from the top on down in what <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ears to be a test of loyalty.<\/p>\n<p>Amid the scramble, Gen. Sergey Surovikin, who has historically close ties to Prigozhin, was reportedly detained by Russian authorities. Surovikin heads Russia\u2019s aerospace forces, a crucial part of Moscow\u2019s war machine.<\/p>\n<p>Alexander Downes, the\u00a0co-director at the Institute for Security and Conflict Studies at\u00a0George Washington University, said Putin is \u201cparanoid\u201d and \u201cnot sure how many people are involved\u201d in the mutiny, which he indicated is a good sign for Ukraine.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cAnytime your opponent starts to rip itself apart from the inside, that\u2019s a good thing for you,\u201d Downes said. \u201cBecause it\u2019s less effort that they can spend on fighting you.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Whether Surovikin is ousted from power or not, Downes expects Putin to start removing capable officers from the command structure, which he said would have a trickle-down effect in the military.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s certainly not going to be good to have chaos in your high command,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>After the uprising, expectations that Ukraine could quickly capitalize on the chaos turned out to be false hopes. The Wagner rebellion has not had an im<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">media<\/a>te impact on the battlefield, where Ukraine is strenously pushing ahead with its counteroffensive launched\u00a0<s>earlier this month<\/s>\u00a0<strong>in June<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Ukrainians are making slow progress as forces look for weak spots in the heavily fortified Russian defenses;\u00a0<s>and<\/s>\u00a0there has been no significant breakthrough<s>\u00a0yet<\/s>. Wagner fighters had\u00a0<s>already<\/s>\u00a0retreated from the frontline before last weekend and the rebellion did not force the withdrawal of any conventional Russian troops on the frontline.<\/p>\n<p>Yet it\u2019s clear that in the aftermath of the rebellion, how Ukraine\u2019s counteroffensive unfolds in the coming months will have a profound impact on Russia\u2019s longer-term strategy and combat effectiveness.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute,\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RALee85\/status\/1673052689209466881\">tweeted<\/a>\u00a0that the \u201csuccess or failure of Ukraine\u2019s counteroffensive could be a very significant factor\u201d for Russia\u2019s military.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf the Russian military holds, I think it will bolster Shoigu and Gerasimov\u2019s position,\u201d Lee wrote in a thread this week, referring to\u00a0<strong>Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of Russia\u2019s General Staff who is overseeing the war in Ukraine<\/strong>. \u201cIf Ukraine achieves significant gains and the Russian military performs poorly, it could strengthen Prigozhin\u2019s position (Wagner would be more vital), and exacerbate internal tensions.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Prigozhin is exiled in Belarus and his fighters may be integrated into the regular armed forces or broken up into other private military companies. The Wagner chief is likely to lose his power and influence.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr5_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>But Prigozhin\u2019s frequent criticisms of Russian command \u2014 namely\u00a0<s>Defense Minister Sergei<\/s>\u00a0Shoigu and\u00a0<s>Gen. Valery<\/s>\u00a0Gerasimov<s>, the chief of Russia\u2019s General Staff who is overseeing the war in Ukraine<\/s>\u00a0\u2014 created friction between supporters of his messaging and those more loyal to the Kremlin.<\/p>\n<p>Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder declined to speak on specific outcomes of the internal situation in Russia, but said the \u201cfacts were there for all of us to see.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis is an issue that Russia obviously needs to address internally,\u201d Ryder\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.c-span.org\/video\/?529014-1\/defense-department-briefing\">said at a Tuesday briefing.<\/a><\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr6_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>For now, the internal strife is rippling across the political and information space in Russia rather than taking a direct and immediate toll across Russian units on the battlefield, according to Karolina Hird, a Russia analyst with the Institute for the Study of War.<\/p>\n<p>Hird emphasized the ease\u00a0<s>in<\/s>\u00a0<strong>with<\/strong>\u00a0which Prigozhin\u2019s troops marched through Russia and said she was watching more closely a pro-Wagner faction and an anti-Wagner faction \u201ccrystallizing\u201d within the security forces tasked with defending Russia.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt really exposed cracks and shortcomings in the vaunted internal security apparatus, which is directly questioning the stability of what is meant to be protecting the Kremlin, protecting Putin\u2019s regime,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr7_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>In the wake of the rebellion, troop morale will face yet another test \u2014 already one of the biggest challenges for Russia\u2019s combat command.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Russia mobilized 300,000 reservists last year and ordered up another semi-annual round of about 147,000 conscripts this spring. Moscow also\u00a0passed a new law\u00a0cracking down on Russians fleeing drafts by sending out electronic notifications to supplement mail orders.<\/p>\n<p>Western analysts say morale continues to be a pressing issue for Moscow, as some soldiers question why they are in Ukraine.\u00a0Prigozhin likely intensified that issue.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Ahead of his resistance, the mercenary leader\u00a0released a video\u00a0that accused Moscow of lying about the war in Ukraine, calling into question the Kremlin\u2019s justifications<s>\u00a0for the war<\/s>.<\/p>\n<p>When asked if support for the war was slipping in Russia, Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the mobilization decree last year and Prigozhin\u2019s highly public criticisms presented some evidence of declining support.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere are some indicators,\u201d\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.c-span.org\/video\/?529060-1\/joint-chiefs-staff-chair-discusses-career-military-strategy\">Milley said at the National Press Club<\/a>\u00a0on Friday, but \u201cI wouldn\u2019t say they are definitive or conclusive or it\u2019s going to result in some outcome or another.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Peter Dickinson, the editor of the Atlantic Council\u2019s UkraineAlert service, said Prigozhin\u2019s statements \u201cwill inevitably undermine fighting spirit among Russian troops and cause many to question exactly what they are fighting for in Ukraine.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis has long been an issue for the Russian authorities, who have struggled to articulate their war aims,\u201d\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/ukrainealert\/short-lived-wagner-mutiny-will-undermine-russias-ukraine-invasion\/\">he wrote in an opinion piece<\/a>. \u201cThe short-lived Wagner mutiny has also exposed deep divides within Russia\u2019s military and security establishment that indicate remarkably low levels of loyalty to the Putin regime.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s still possible that Putin rights the ship and gets the military and security forces to fall back in line.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><s>In one sign of that possibility,<\/s>\u00a0Russian military bloggers, many of whom had echoed Prigozhin\u2019s constant criticisms of failures in the war and his stance to be more aggressive in Ukraine, have largely aligned against the Wagner chief and condemned him following the rebellion, according to their posts.<\/p>\n<p>Yannis Stivachtis, the director of Virginia Tech\u2019s Center for European Union, Transatlantic and Trans-European Space Studies, also dismissed the chatter of Putin\u2019s regime collapsing or the military crumbling, at least because of Prigozhin.<\/p>\n<p>Stivachtis said the Russian leader remains strongly entrenched in power and that, generally, Russians strive to be loyal to the nation.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn Russia, you have to do something for the motherland,\u201d he told The Hill. \u201cThe Russians never fight for politics [and] they will never sacrifice their military strategy for politics.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/policy\/defense\/4076635-putin-crackdown-wagner-rebellion-weak-points-russian-military\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Wagner Group rebellion is expected to have a harmful ripple effect across Russia\u2019s armed forces as the Kremlin works to weed out supporters of the attempted insurrection, with internal divisions and strife likely to weaken fighting capabilities. Shakeups in Russia\u2019s military command could further impact the leadership\u00a0overseeing the war in Ukraine,\u00a0analysts say,\u00a0while Russian soldiers&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":580935,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/wagner-group-members_062423getty_wagner-group-russia.jpg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[134343,134418,134353,73798,134661,73014,142949,134345,73234],"class_list":["post-580934","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-campaign","tag-congress-blog","tag-court-battles","tag-defense","tag-energy-environment","tag-health-care","tag-sergei-shoigu","tag-state-watch","tag-vladimir-putin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/580934","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=580934"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/580934\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/580935"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=580934"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=580934"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=580934"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}