{"id":581200,"date":"2023-07-03T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-03T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/senate-rankings-five-seats-most-likely-to-flip\/"},"modified":"2023-07-03T13:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-07-03T10:00:00","slug":"senate-rankings-five-seats-most-likely-to-flip","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/senate-rankings-five-seats-most-likely-to-flip\/","title":{"rendered":"#Senate rankings: five seats most likely to flip"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3be42b620ed\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3be42b620ed\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/senate-rankings-five-seats-most-likely-to-flip\/#West_Virginia\" >West Virginia\u00a0<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/senate-rankings-five-seats-most-likely-to-flip\/#Montana\" >Montana<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/senate-rankings-five-seats-most-likely-to-flip\/#Ohio\" >Ohio<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/senate-rankings-five-seats-most-likely-to-flip\/#Arizona\" >Arizona\u00a0<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/senate-rankings-five-seats-most-likely-to-flip\/#Wisconsin\" >Wisconsin<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/manchinjoe_testerjon_brownsherrod_063023gn_split_senate-races.png?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>The 2024 battle for the Senate started with a bang earlier this year and has not let up,\u00a0as candidates in top races continue to roll out their campaigns and incumbents scratch and claw\u00a0to win reelection.\u00a0Their efforts will\u00a0determine who will control the upper chamber for the next two years.<\/p>\n<p>Democrats are trying to play defense in a number of red-leaning states to hold\u00a0on to\u00a0their one-seat majority,\u00a0while\u00a0Republicans\u00a0fight\u00a0recruiting battles in\u00a0several states\u00a0to give them the best shot at winning\u00a0a majority.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>While it is too early to tell which side\u2019s maneuvering will pay off,\u00a0here\u2019s a midsummer rundown of the five Senate seats most likely to flip next year.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"West_Virginia\"><\/span>West Virginia\u00a0<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The top spot in these rankings remains unchanged as Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.)\u00a0faces\u00a0a true uphill battle to retain his seat and secure a third full term in the Senate.<\/p>\n<p>Republicans have been licking their chops at the possibility of unseating Manchin and, unlike in 2018, they seem to have their best candidate in place to do just that in West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R). An\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com\/pr\/justice-and-trump-with-commanding-early-leads-in-west-virginia\">East Carolina University (ECU) survey<\/a>\u00a0released in late May shows\u00a0Justice leading the incumbent centrist Democrat by more than 20 percentage points.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In order for Justice to make it that far, he must overcome\u00a0a potentially tricky challenge against Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), who is backed by conservative forces. The ECU poll also shows Justice with a 40-point lead over Mooney, though some of that advantage is owed to his massive name\u00a0ID.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Facing political challenges back home, Manchin has been on an offensive against President Biden\u2019s spate of nominations in recent months, having said that he will oppose all his Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)\u00a0nominees\u00a0and voted against multiple judicial selections in recent weeks. He also opposed Biden\u2019s choice\u00a0of\u00a0top economic adviser and is likely to oppose Julie Su\u2019s nomination to lead the Department of Labor,\u00a0if she ever comes up for a vote on the floor.<\/p>\n<p>Allies, however, say this isn\u2019t anything unusual and that it\u2019s just how he operates.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cThe recent opposition is just who he normally is. He reviews all nominees the same way,\u201d said Jon Kott, a former Manchin spokesperson, who noted what Manchin used to tell him about how he considers nominees. \u201cHe\u2019d say, \u2018I look at them and say: Are they good for the state of West Virginia and the good of the country?\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI just think it\u2019s getting more scrutiny because it\u2019s the political season,\u201d Kott added.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Of course, Manchin has yet to announce whether he\u2019ll even seek reelection, with a decision expected in December or shortly before the January filing deadline,\u00a0as he continues to flirt with a third-party presidential bid.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Montana\"><\/span>Montana<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>It was a big week in Big Sky as Tim Sheehy, a retired Navy SEAL turned businessman, threw his hat into the ring and gave Republicans their best hope to finally defeat Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) next year.<\/p>\n<p>Sheehy is among the top recruits this cycle for Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who badly wants to topple the three-term Montana Democrat. The newly minted GOP candidate has a lot of things going for him, headlined by his business background, military service and bank account largesse \u2014 a trio that Republicans argue is sterling.<\/p>\n<p>Strategists argue that while he looks great on paper, first-time, millionaire candidates can have trouble resonating with voters. This was seen last cycle\u00a0when\u00a0David McCormick in Pennsylvania was unable to escape the primary and has since lamented that he didn\u2019t find his sea legs until it was too late. Ironically, he,\u00a0too,\u00a0is atop Daines\u2019 wish list this year.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>But for now, Republicans are flying high over Sheehy.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s been proven that Tester is tough and if we\u2019re serious about winning the seat, we need to put forward our best candidate,\u201d one national GOP strategist told The Hill. \u201cIt\u2019s pretty clear he doesn\u2019t want to run against Sheehy, and that should tell you all you need to know.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Sheehy will likely have to prevail over Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) in a primary, with Democrats itching for a Tester-Rosendale rematch after the incumbent senator defeated him by 3.5 percentage points. Rosendale has a pocket of right-wing support and name\u00a0ID after multiple statewide runs, but he has numerous issues \u2014 including lackluster fundraising and a Maryland accent that caused him issues during his last Senate bid, to name a few.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr5_ab\"><\/aside>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Ohio\"><\/span>Ohio<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Rounding out the trio of the seats Republicans are most hopeful to flip is the Buckeye State, where they likely have their best chance to beat Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).<\/p>\n<p>Brown has proven to be a difficult out for Republicans in each of his reelection fights, which he won by\u00a06\u00a0and\u00a06\u00a0percentage points, respectively. However, Ohio has moved further to the right in that time, with former President Trump carrying the state by\u00a08\u00a0percentage points in 2020, despite losing the election. Put simply, the swingiest of swing states has gotten redder than ever, but whether that will be enough to take down Brown remains to be seen.<\/p>\n<p>For now, only two top-tier Republicans \u2014 state Sen. Matt Dolan\u00a0and Bernie Moreno \u2014 have announced bids, with another likely to come from Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R). LaRose is expected to jump in the race in July, one Ohio GOP source told The Hill, creating a tough three-way contest that will have a number of balls in the air.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr6_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Asked to forecast a three-way primary, the Ohio GOP source said that Moreno will likely win Trump\u2019s endorsement and that LaRose could have fundraising issues, especially given that he\u2019s the only one of the group who can\u2019t self-fund,\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theohiostar.com\/news\/undeclared-u-s-senate-candidate-frank-larose-to-make-ohio-senate-primary-announcement-soon\/hpoling\/2023\/06\/27\/\">as he\u2019s noted<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMoreno is the favorite, but as a first-time candidate, he will likely make some mistakes,\u201d the source said. \u201cThe question is: is that enough of an opening for either of the two others?\u201d<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Arizona\"><\/span>Arizona\u00a0<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Of the states on this list, perhaps no race has changed less than the battle in Arizona,\u00a0as Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) remains the top choice of Democrats, Kari Lake is the likely option for Republicans even though she has yet to announce a bid, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) has yet to tip her hand and say whether she will seek reelection next year as an independent.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr7_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Gallego announced his bid in late January and has put himself in as good of a spot as a Democrat can at this point\u00a0in\u00a0time. The Arizona Democrat posted a strong $3.7 million haul in the first quarter, outraising Sinema by $1.6 million during that stretch and giving Democrats hope that they can retain the seat next year. He also received a boost on the left last week,\u00a0as former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) endorsed his bid.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHe seems to be doing what he needs to be doing. Head down. Building his brand,\u201d one Democratic operative with Arizona ties told The Hill, noting that\u00a0Gallego\u00a0has so far avoided a bruising primary with Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.) declining to run.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>On the GOP side, all signs still point to Lake, who has effectively frozen the field until she decides whether to take the Senate plunge as she\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dailymail.co.uk\/news\/article-12234991\/Kari-Lake-declares-lawful-governor-Arizona-new-book-reveals-odd-Ducey-meeting.html\">falsely argues<\/a>\u00a0that she is the \u201clawful governor of Arizona\u201d after her loss to Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) in November.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>However, Lake has taken steps toward a possible bid, having met with more than a handful of GOP senators during a\u00a0mid-May\u00a0visit to Washington. Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb has also entered the GOP primary.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the wait is on for Sinema, who filed paperwork for a bid but has stayed mum when asked in various interviews about her 2024 plans. Her impact on the race remains a massive unknown as a three-way <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a> election battle opens up doors not previously seen in races in the state.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s hard to say one way or another,\u201d the Democratic operative said about a three-way race.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Wisconsin\"><\/span>Wisconsin<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Finally, Wisconsin is the lone new entrant on the list as Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) tries to secure a third term and Republicans try to figure out who will be their best candidate to deny her six more years in office.<\/p>\n<p>Just like the other Democratic incumbents mentioned above, Baldwin has proven to be a real challenge for Republicans in each of her Senate bids. After defeating former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) to win her seat in 2012, she followed that up with an impressive double-digit win in 2018, giving Democrats another battle-tested member to lean on in what could be a tough cycle.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat makes Baldwin incredibly hard to beat is that she puts in the work and she\u2019s got 15 winning campaigns to show for it,\u201d said Joshua Karp, a Democratic operative who advised Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes\u2019 (D) campaign last year. \u201cWisconsin\u2019s a state where people expect to have a personal relationship with their leaders and Baldwin puts in the personal touch and it shows.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Republicans\u00a0have been\u00a0wading through possible options. However, they were dealt a blow in recent weeks as Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) announced he would seek reelection in the House and focus on his work atop the newly created Select Committee on China.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Now, they are looking at a pair of self-funders to take Baldwin on.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Eric Hovde, a former hedge fund manager who narrowly lost the 2012 Senate primary to Thompson, is considered the leading figure,\u00a0as he would be buoyed by a massive war chest and experience running a statewide campaign. One Wisconsin GOP operative\u00a0noted recently\u00a0that Hovde has floated spending at least $20 million of his own money.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The second self-funder looking at a run is businessman Scott Mayer, who will likely\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/themessenger.com\/politics\/wisconsin-republican-eyes-senate-bid-after-gallagher-passes-on-run\">make a decision post-Labor Day<\/a>. The downside:\u00a0He has nearly zero name\u00a0ID in the state. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) recently acknowledged that he doesn\u2019t know\u00a0Mayer\u00a0very well,\u00a0either.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.) is also considered an option, though he\u2019d have to give up his ruby-red seat to jump in the race.<\/p>\n<p>What will be the key to Republicans ousting Baldwin, though, will be external forces. What will  Biden\u2019s standing be in the state next year? And will the GOP nominate Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) or someone else next year? Those are questions that will weigh heavily on the Senate race.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>According to a new\u00a0Marquette University Law Poll, DeSantis is deadlocked with Trump and would fare better in a one-on-one matchup against the president. That would give Republicans a better shot at holding the seat.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2023 Nexstar <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Media<\/a> Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/senate\/4076463-senate-rankings-five-seats-most-likely-to-flip\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The 2024 battle for the Senate started with a bang earlier this year and has not let up,\u00a0as candidates in top races continue to roll out their campaigns and incumbents scratch and claw\u00a0to win reelection.\u00a0Their efforts will\u00a0determine who will control the upper chamber for the next two years. Democrats are trying to play defense in&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":581201,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/manchinjoe_testerjon_brownsherrod_063023gn_split_senate-races.png?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[135620,139977,135593,144271,134417,117,134343,70363,73798,140922,144272,33487,124783,991,89017,137265,135568,112997,134896,138531,137373,137829,54077,70465,137024,134352,136339,136923,135654],"class_list":["post-581200","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-135620","tag-2024-senate-elections","tag-alex-mooney","tag-bernie-moreno","tag-blog-briefing-room","tag-business","tag-campaign","tag-civil-rights","tag-defense","tag-frank-larose","tag-greg-stanton","tag-immigration","tag-international","tag-joe-biden","tag-joe-manchin","tag-jon-tester","tag-katie-hobbs","tag-kyrsten-sinema","tag-mandela-barnes","tag-matt-dolan","tag-matt-rosendale","tag-mike-gallagher","tag-nancy-pelosi","tag-ron-johnson","tag-ruben-gallego","tag-senate-elections","tag-sherrod-brown","tag-steve-daines","tag-tammy-baldwin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/581200","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=581200"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/581200\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/581201"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=581200"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=581200"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=581200"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}