{"id":581474,"date":"2023-07-05T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-05T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/five-things-we-now-know-about-the-2024-campaign\/"},"modified":"2023-07-05T13:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-07-05T10:00:00","slug":"five-things-we-now-know-about-the-2024-campaign","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/five-things-we-now-know-about-the-2024-campaign\/","title":{"rendered":"#Five things we now know about the 2024 campaign"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2675bf3121f\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2675bf3121f\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/five-things-we-now-know-about-the-2024-campaign\/#Indictments_arent_hurting_Trump_with_the_GOP_base\" >Indictments aren\u2019t hurting Trump with the GOP base<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/five-things-we-now-know-about-the-2024-campaign\/#Democrats_dont_have_a_good_answer_to_the_question_of_Bidens_age\" >Democrats don\u2019t have a good answer to the question of Biden\u2019s age<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/five-things-we-now-know-about-the-2024-campaign\/#DeSantis_has_been_underwhelming_so_far\" >DeSantis has been underwhelming so far<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/five-things-we-now-know-about-the-2024-campaign\/#The_Supreme_Court_is_looming_larger_as_an_election_issue\" >The Supreme Court is looming larger as an election issue<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/five-things-we-now-know-about-the-2024-campaign\/#No_clear_GOP_alternative_to_Trump_has_emerged\" >No clear GOP alternative to Trump has emerged<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/illo-2024-halfway_VM-GN-AP-Stock.jpg?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Election Day 2024 is still 16 months away, but plenty has been revealed in the early months of the presidential campaign.<\/p>\n<p>The Republican field looks set. President Biden is not facing a truly serious challenge for the Democratic nomination. And the Supreme Court keeps throwing curveballs.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>There are many twists and turns still to come. But here are some of the things we know about the campaign right now.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Indictments_arent_hurting_Trump_with_the_GOP_base\"><\/span>Indictments aren\u2019t hurting Trump with the GOP base<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Trump has been twice impeached and twice indicted \u2014 and he remains the crystal-clear frontrunner for the GOP nomination.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>His legal troubles are still developing.<\/p>\n<p>He could yet face other charges pertaining to the Capitol riot of Jan. 6, 2021, and, particularly, his attempts to pressure state-level officials to overturn the 2020 election. He continues to promote false claims that the election was stolen.<\/p>\n<p>To the Republican base at least, none of it seems to matter.<\/p>\n<p>On April 3, the day before Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced the first-ever criminal indictment of a former president, Trump led Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>roximately 24 points in the FiveThirtyEight national polling average.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Then came a second indictment, over the sensitive documents recovered from his Mar-a-Lago estate. In that case, Trump pleaded not guilty to all 37 charges against him June 13.<\/p>\n<p>Today, Trump\u2019s lead is slightly larger \u2014 28 points \u2014 than it was before any of this happened. He now commands the support of an outright majority of GOP voters, 52 percent, in the FiveThirtyEight average, an improvement from three months ago.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, there is the question of how Trump\u2019s legal travails might affect him with the <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a> public, with whom he is broadly unpopular already.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>In an <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.cdn.yougov.com\/01qmicwezl\/econTabReport.pdf\">Economist\/YouGov poll<\/a> last week, 55 percent of Americans viewed the former president unfavorably, against 43 percent who viewed him favorably.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, if Trump were actually to be convicted, that would throw an entirely new wrench into the race.<\/p>\n<p>But for now, the two indictments pose no significant challenge to Trump\u2019s quest for the GOP nomination.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Democrats_dont_have_a_good_answer_to_the_question_of_Bidens_age\"><\/span>Democrats don\u2019t have a good answer to the question of Biden\u2019s age<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>President Biden is already the oldest president in history. If he won a second term, and served until its conclusion, he would be 86 when he left office.<\/p>\n<p>Voter concerns are made more acute when Biden suffers verbal miscues like referring to the war \u201cin Iraq\u201d when he clearly means \u201cin Ukraine,\u201d as he did last week.<\/p>\n<p>A physical fall at an Air Force Academy graduation ceremony June 1 did not do Biden\u2019s image any good either.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr5_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Republicans emphasize these moments in the hope of casting Biden as unfit for office. But the concerns about the president\u2019s age are not confined to GOP voters.<\/p>\n<p>A <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/tablet\/2023\/05\/05\/april-28-may-3-2023-washington-post-abc-news-poll\/?itid=lk_inline_manual_2\">Washington Post\/ABC News poll<\/a> in May found 63 percent of Americans did not think that Biden had the \u201cmental sharpness it takes to serve effectively as president.\u201d About 1-in-5 Democratic voters endorsed that view.<\/p>\n<p>Biden himself admitted last October that \u201cit\u2019s a legitimate thing to be concerned about anyone\u2019s age, including mine.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr6_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>But there\u2019s nothing that can really be done to neutralize those concerns.<\/p>\n<p>The best that can be hoped for, from the White House\u2019s perspective, is that voters accept Biden\u2019s pleas to be judged on his performance \u2014 and buy the argument that his age and experience make him wise.<\/p>\n<p>If Trump ends up being Biden\u2019s general election opponent, Democrats take some degree of comfort from the fact that there would be less than four years separating the two men\u2019s ages.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr7_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>A general election race between the now 80-year-old Biden and 44-year-old DeSantis, 51-year-old former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley or 57-year-old South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott would be a different matter.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"DeSantis_has_been_underwhelming_so_far\"><\/span>DeSantis has been underwhelming so far<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>DeSantis is almost six weeks into his campaign \u2014 and it hasn\u2019t been very impressive.<\/p>\n<p>The troubles began right away.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Twitter<\/a> Spaces launch event that the DeSantis campaign presumably believed would mark him out as an innovative disrupter was instead a glitch-ridden mess.<\/p>\n<p>DeSantis, never the most natural of political campaigners, has faced new scrutiny for the perceived awkwardness of his interactions on the stump.<\/p>\n<p>But the biggest problem is that polls provide virtually no evidence that DeSantis is capturing the imagination of GOP voters.<\/p>\n<p>His poll ratings now are virtually indistinguishable from where they were before his campaign began.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>As that perception of a struggling campaign grows, so too does the danger of Team DeSantis appearing desperate.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A bizarre video retweeted from an associated Twitter account last week, which assailed Trump for being too liberal on LGBTQ issues and sought to cast DeSantis in a hyper-macho light, was the most startling example to date.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s far too early to say that all is lost for DeSantis.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Other candidates have got off to stuttering starts only to triumph, most notably then-Sen. Barack Obama at the beginning of his 2008 Democratic primary battle against then-Sen. Hillary Clinton.<\/p>\n<p>Still, it\u2019s been a very tepid beginning for DeSantis.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Supreme_Court_is_looming_larger_as_an_election_issue\"><\/span>The Supreme Court is looming larger as an election issue<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The Supreme Court ensured it would be a big 2024 election issue a year ago, when it issued the Dobbs decision that struck down Roe v. Wade after almost 50 years.<\/p>\n<p>The abortion issue cost the GOP in the 2022 midterm elections, and the pro-abortion rights side has also won a number of statewide ballot measures even in conservative terrain such as Kansas and Montana.<\/p>\n<p>But after the decisions announced last week, the Supreme Court is rising even further up the political agenda.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In three huge cases, the court greatly restricted colleges and universities from considering race as a qualification for admission; struck down Biden\u2019s student debt cancellation program that would have benefitted 43 million Americans; and backed a Christian website designer in Colorado who wanted to avoid sanction for refusing to design sites celebrating same-sex marriage.<\/p>\n<p>The decisions have outraged the left.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), in a CNN interview Sunday, accused the Supreme Court justices of \u201cfar overreaching their authority\u201d in the student loans case. Biden complained after the affirmative action decision that the current court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority, is \u201cnot a normal court.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Conservatives, for their part, contend that Democrats revered earlier, more liberal, iterations of the court but are whining now the shoe is on the other foot.<\/p>\n<p>One way or another, the court is central in deciding some of the most potent and divisive issues in American life.<\/p>\n<p>Its importance will be cited by both sides in the campaign to come.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"No_clear_GOP_alternative_to_Trump_has_emerged\"><\/span>No clear GOP alternative to Trump has emerged<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>For all of the failings of DeSantis\u2019s campaign so far, he is at least remaining well clear of the chasing pack of candidates.<\/p>\n<p>None of the other alternatives to Trump are making much headway at all.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In the FiveThirtyEight national average as of Tuesday afternoon, former Vice President Mike Pence was third with just 7 percent support, while Haley, Scott and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy were all effectively tied for fourth on 4 percent.<\/p>\n<p>One of these candidates, or someone else trailing even further behind, could suddenly come to life in the fall.<\/p>\n<p>Debate season, which is set to begin Aug. 23 in Milwaukee, will give every candidate the chance to land a potentially <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/game\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" title=\"Game\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">game<\/a>-changing punch.<\/p>\n<p>But right now, no one has come close to sewing up the niche as the Not-Trump choice.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/4079706-five-things-we-now-know-about-the-2024-campaign\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Election Day 2024 is still 16 months away, but plenty has been revealed in the early months of the presidential campaign. The Republican field looks set. President Biden is not facing a truly serious challenge for the Democratic nomination. And the Supreme Court keeps throwing curveballs. There are many twists and turns still to come&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":581475,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/illo-2024-halfway_VM-GN-AP-Stock.jpg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[134417,134343,4941,70610,124783,991,134614,28962,79172,29102,71404,4965,104064],"class_list":["post-581474","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-blog-briefing-room","tag-campaign","tag-donald-trump","tag-finance","tag-international","tag-joe-biden","tag-judiciary","tag-mike-pence","tag-nikki-haley","tag-ron-desantis","tag-supreme-court","tag-technology","tag-tim-scott"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/581474","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=581474"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/581474\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/581475"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=581474"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=581474"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=581474"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}