{"id":581756,"date":"2023-07-07T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-07T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/democrats-see-hope-in-house-gloom-in-senate\/"},"modified":"2023-07-07T13:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-07-07T10:00:00","slug":"democrats-see-hope-in-house-gloom-in-senate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/democrats-see-hope-in-house-gloom-in-senate\/","title":{"rendered":"#Democrats see hope in House, gloom in Senate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/jeffrieshakeem_070623tc-gn_split_house-senate.jpg?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Democrats see a clear path to winning back the House majority in next fall\u2019s elections, even as their worries grow that they could lose their hard-fought Senate majority.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In the House, Democrats need to pick up five seats to take back their majority, and the House map includes close to a dozen seats being defended by Republicans in only California and New York. <\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Democrats are already favored to win back the district held by scandal-plagued Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), per the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, and Republicans are defending another five toss-up seats in New York and New Jersey. <\/p>\n<p>California is another state of opportunity for House Democrats, where Republicans are defending seven competitive seats. <\/p>\n<p>Yet if the House is an opportunity that makes Democrats optimistic, the Senate is a source of angst for the party. <\/p>\n<p>Democrats are defending 23 Senate seats next year compared to 11 for Republicans. <\/p>\n<p>Three of the seats held by Democrats are in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio \u2014 states former President Trump easily won over President Biden in the 2020 election. Biden and Trump as seen as the favorites to be their parties\u2019 presidential nominees next year. <\/p>\n<p>Cook has Democratic seats in Ohio and West Virginia as toss-ups, along with Arizona, where Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a>ly votes with Democrats, became a political independent last year. Another five Democratic Senate seats are rated by Cook as competitive.  <\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t think it\u2019s unfair to say it\u2019s absolutely brutal for the national Democratic Party, as it always is in this cycle,\u201d said John LaBombard, a former aide to Sinema, of the 2024 Senate map.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRight now, it looks to me like we\u2019re going to be competitive for both chambers, but especially the Senate map \u2014 there\u2019s just a lot of things outside of our control, including not the least of which is ever-increasing partisanship in these red and battleground states \u2014 that\u2019s going to be hard to overcome.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Things look a lot rosier on the House side.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Only five Democrats are running in Trump-won districts, while 18 Republicans are running in Biden-won districts. A handful of those are first-term GOP representatives from New York: Santos and fellow Reps. Nick LaLota, Anthony D\u2019Esposito, Mike Lawler and Brandon Williams.<\/p>\n<p>California will also play a pivotal role as Republicans defend House districts held by GOP Reps. John Duarte, David Valadao, Mike Garcia, Young Kim, Ken Calvert and Michelle Steel.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs for these House seats \u2014 in New York alone, there\u2019s enough pickup opportunities for us to win back the majority. There are more Biden districts that have GOP [representatives] right now than there are seats we need to pick up to win the majority. \u2026 It really just comes down to a math equation,\u201d said a House Democratic aide who requested anonymity to speak candidly.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Democrats also believe that, as the minority party, they have a convincing case to make to voters.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOn the House side, you\u2019ll see individual campaigns make Senate-like arguments. If you\u2019re in California or New York or a Midwest seat where you know we only need five seats, it\u2019s credible for you to say, \u2018We can be the campaign to make Hakeem Jeffries the next Speaker,\u2019 and that\u2019s a very compelling argument to make,\u201d the aide explained.<\/p>\n<p>Jeffries is the House minority leader and likely would become the first Black Speaker if Democrats win the House.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr5_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>If Democrats are to hold the Senate, they almost certainly will have to see Biden prevail in the presidential race and can lose only one seat. This assumes Democrats cannot pick off a Republican-held seat in the Senate \u2014 a possibility but a tall task given next year\u2019s map.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This means the party needs incumbent Sens. Jon Tester (Mont.), Joe Manchin (W.Va.) and Sherrod Brown (Ohio) to win reelection in states Trump won in 2020. <\/p>\n<p>The party also will hope to hold on to Arizona, where Sinema is a wild card. <\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr6_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Assuming Sinema runs for reelection, it could set up a three-way race with Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and a GOP nominee. <\/p>\n<p>Democrats could still keep the majority if they lose one of those four seats but win the White House. <\/p>\n<p>Tester and Brown give the party strong incumbents who have proven they can win reelection in tough climates. <\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr7_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Manchin, who faces an especially tough reelection bid in a state where Trump is popular, has said he\u2019ll decide later this\u00a0year whether he will run for reelection. Sinema has not yet said whether she\u2019ll run again, but\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/kyrsten-sinema-is-preparing-for-a-2024-re-election-campaign-23edb2fb\">The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this year<\/a>\u00a0that she was preparing to do so.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Democrats publicly say they are confident. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cDemocrats will hold the Senate majority thanks to the strength of our battle tested candidates who are backed by a broad, unique coalition of voters in their states,\u201d said Tommy Garcia, a spokesman for the Senate Democrats\u2019 campaign arm, in a statement. \u201cMeanwhile, Republicans are hamstrung by their recruitment failures, vicious primaries, and flawed candidates who will have to answer for their party\u2019s toxic agenda on issues like abortion.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But privately, Democrats acknowledge the difficulty of retaining the Senate. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Senate map is tough. You\u2019ve got a lot of swing people who actually have to toe the line up for reelection. Tester is a really tough defend,\u201d said one Democratic operative.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Jon Reinish, a former aide to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), suggested the Democrats\u2019 Senate math also will hinge on what Manchin decides to do \u2014 and who his opponent will be.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEveryone\u2019s waiting to see if Manchin runs again, and of course, what h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ens in the primary on the Republican side in West Virginia. \u2026 The numbers seem to show that he would be much more competitive against [Rep. Alex] Mooney, who is really far to the right, though [it] would be very challenging to beat [Gov. Jim] Justice, who\u2019s quite popular,\u201d Reinish said.<\/p>\n<p>In the House and Senate contests, Democrats are hopeful they can galvanize voters by pointing to abortion rights. <\/p>\n<p>That issue helped the party retain the Senate majority in 2022, and although Republicans won the House, Democratic believe a backlash to the Supreme Court\u2019s overturning of the Roe v. Wade decision held down their losses. <\/p>\n<p>Student debt is another issue that could help Democrats turn out the vote. Even Republicans believe the Supreme Court\u2019s recent ruling rejecting Biden\u2019s student debt plan could turn out voters angered by the decision.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Some Republicans also see a tough climb ahead for them to keep the House. Republican strategist Rina Shah suggested members of her party have been too steeped in the culture wars and not focusing on bread-and-butter issues. The infighting among House Republicans, she explained, hasn\u2019t helped.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI do think it\u2019s had its impression on voters who sort of feel like, \u2018Well, who are the adults in the room? Why aren\u2019t certain things getting done?&#8217;\u201d Shah said.<\/p>\n<p>Other Republicans are projecting a show of confidence. <\/p>\n<p>Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), who\u2019s serving as the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP\u2019s campaign arm,\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/california-house-2024-election-b6211c2fa126ad6c422c174c309a9da7\">told The Associated Press on Wednesday<\/a>:\u00a0\u201cI think we can actually pick up seats in California.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cCoddling criminals, fueling inflation with reckless government spending, and demanding open borders that [exacerbate] the fentanyl crisis \u2014 that\u2019s extreme Democrats\u2019 party platform,\u201d NRCC spokesman Will Reinert told The Hill in a statement. \u201cNo one in their right mind thinks this agenda is helping the country, which is why Republicans are going to grow our House majority next fall.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2023 Nexstar <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Media<\/a> Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/4084247-democrats-see-hope-in-house-gloom-in-senate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Democrats see a clear path to winning back the House majority in next fall\u2019s elections, even as their worries grow that they could lose their hard-fought Senate majority.\u00a0 In the House, Democrats need to pick up five seats to take back their majority, and the House map includes close to a dozen seats being defended&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":581757,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/jeffrieshakeem_070623tc-gn_split_house-senate.jpg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[135620,117,134343,134353,70288,134447,70610,137726,80445,90482,991,89017,137265,71525,70289],"class_list":["post-581756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-135620","tag-business","tag-campaign","tag-court-battles","tag-elections","tag-energy-and-environment","tag-finance","tag-george-santos","tag-healthcare","tag-house","tag-joe-biden","tag-joe-manchin","tag-jon-tester","tag-national-security","tag-senate"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/581756","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=581756"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/581756\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/581757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=581756"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=581756"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=581756"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}