{"id":584679,"date":"2023-07-28T12:42:32","date_gmt":"2023-07-28T09:42:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/does-ukraine-have-a-second-summer-push-up-its-sleeve\/"},"modified":"2023-07-28T12:42:32","modified_gmt":"2023-07-28T09:42:32","slug":"does-ukraine-have-a-second-summer-push-up-its-sleeve","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/does-ukraine-have-a-second-summer-push-up-its-sleeve\/","title":{"rendered":"#Does Ukraine have a second summer push up its sleeve?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/dronesukraine_072523_ap_ukraine.jpg?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Ukraine is trying to breathe fresh life into a largely stalled campaign to push back Russia\u2019s forces, launching a major push in the southern Zaporizhzhia region this week.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>After six weeks of slow gains, Kyiv and Washington insist a second phase of the counteroffensive could unleash intensified attacks on Moscow\u2019s forces and hasten Ukrainian gains in occupied areas.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cUkraine has a substantial amount of combat power that it has not committed to the fight,\u201d White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ZlOHk3Y8wHc\">said last week<\/a>. \u201cIt\u2019s at that moment, when they make that commitment, that we will likely see what the results of the counteroffensive are.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday described the fighting in Ukraine as an \u201cintense battle\u201d and emphasized Ukraine stands a good chance of regaining significant territory.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe believe that the tools, the equipment, the training, the advice that many of us have shared with the Ukrainians over many months puts them in a good position,\u201d Blinken said at <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rnz.co.nz\/news\/national\/494570\/foreign-minister-nanaia-mahuta-state-secretary-antony-blinken-highlight-strong-wide-ranging-and-growing-us-nz-relationship\">a press conference<\/a>\u00a0in New Zealand.<\/p>\n<p>Russia has confirmed the new scale of attacks in the south but said a large number of Ukrainian units were wiped out.<\/p>\n<p>Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday the \u201chostilities have intensified and significantly,\u201d but seemed assured Kyiv would fail eventually.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe enemy achieved no success on any contact swath,\u201d\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/tass.com\/politics\/1653015\">Putin told reporters<\/a>. \u201cAll counteroffensive attempts were stopped, and the enemy was pushed back with high casualties.\u201d<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>While military experts say a Ukrainian breakthrough is still possible, they fear the counteroffensive will culminate later this year without a major victory, which could push the war closer toward a freezing of the lines.<\/p>\n<p>Michael O\u2019Hanlon, a senior fellow and director of research in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution who has tracked the war closely, said his \u201coverall assessment\u201d is the offensive is \u201cgoing slowly and it\u2019s likely to continue going slowly.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>O\u2019Hanlon expressed doubt about Ukraine\u2019s argument that it is carefully probing Russian lines for weaknesses and will achieve breakthroughs once holes and soft spots have been found.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cI\u2019m skeptical because first of all, they\u2019ve had a lot of time to probe and they already have been doing that,\u201d he said. \u201cSecond, unfortunately, the Russians can always concede a little bit of territory if they have to, in order to reestablish the defensive line.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSo if they start to see major Ukrainian progress in a given sector, then that\u2019s the area where they \u2026 redraw the front line and build some trenches and minefields further back and then fall back to that latter position,\u201d he added. \u201cBecause the problem with a slow advance is it gives the defender time to adjust and reestablish their fortification system.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Ukrainian troops are focusing their advances around Bakhmut in the eastern Donetsk region as well as the cities of Melitopol and Berdiansk, both of which lie on the Sea of Azov in the Zaporizhzhia region and are key targets because taking them would cut off a land bridge from Russia to the Crimean Peninsula.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>After more than six weeks of the operation, however, Ukraine has retaken only around 100 square miles of Russian territory, by some estimates.<\/p>\n<p>By comparison, Ukraine seized more than 300 square miles in a week last fall during the Kharkiv offensive and claimed to have liberated more than 3,000 square miles by the end of the operation.<\/p>\n<p>Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Maliar stressed Kyiv\u2019s progress should not be defined in terms of land gains only.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr5_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cThe efficiency of the Armed Forces cannot be measured solely by the kilometers they advanced,\u201d she said on Ukrainian television Wednesday,\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/3740795-mod-its-increasingly-difficult-for-russian-army-to-defend-itself-against-ukraines-offensive.html\">according to state-run news site Ukrinform<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEfficiency is a much broader concept. Our armed forces are very efficient in reducing the offensive and defensive potential of the enemy. It is increasingly difficult for the enemy to defend itself against our offensive.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Kharkiv offensive and another operation in Kherson last year were major successes, leading to high expectations that Ukraine would liberate major chunks of the country in the ongoing operation.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr6_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>But those sky-high expectations\u00a0were met with caution\u00a0from experts, who warned grand successes were unlikely to be replicated again because Russian forces had months to dig in.<\/p>\n<p>Federico Borsari, a fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said Ukraine was now shifting to a \u201cmore methodical\u201d strategy, sending out small teams to clear mines and trenches. He said significant success in this offensive would depend on whether it works.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe agree it still has the possibility and the capabilities to achieve a breakthrough,\u201c he said while acknowledging a stalemate was possible, which could lead to a freezing of the lines across the roughly 900-mile front. \u201cThat\u2019s why Ukraine must be very careful.\u201d<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr7_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>The stalled offensive is raising concerns of an open-ended conflict in the Biden administration,\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/ukraines-stalled-offensive-puts-biden-in-uneasy-political-position-6f686ab5\">according to the Wall Street Journal<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>A stalemate would not be favorable to Ukraine because it only entrenches Russia\u2019s position in eastern Ukraine. And any resulting cease-fire could allow Putin to build up his forces and attack again.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/responsiblestatecraft.org\/2023\/07\/26\/did-the-us-know-the-ukraine-offensive-might-fail-and-if-so-when\/\">An article\u00a0published<\/a> in the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft this week argued it would be self-defeating for the U.S. to continue an open-ended war, and it suggested looking at the armistice on the Korean peninsula as a potential model in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>For now, even in the new operation, Ukraine is struggling against the superiority of Russian air power, expending high rates of ammunition and losing a large amount of Western-provided armor.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s also draining U.S. supplies, with Biden agreeing to send Ukraine cluster munitions earlier this month as a stopgap while more 155 mm howitzer rounds are produced.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Cluster munitions scatter dozens of submissions in areas where they are deployed, and are banned by more than 100 countries because they often fail to detonate and pose hazards to civilians long after a war has ended.<\/p>\n<p>John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and now a senior director of the Atlantic Council\u2019s Eurasia Center, said Ukraine has slightly outperformed his expectations.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>He pointed to Bakhmut in particular, where Ukrainian troops are retaking swaths of territory after Russia expended thousands of troops over a year to seize the city.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf they were to close off Bakhmut and capture 10,000 or 15,000 Russian soldiers, that will be a significant defeat, with real political ramifications,\u201d Herbst said.<\/p>\n<p>He also argued that if Ukraine retakes up to 500 square miles of territory by the end of the operation, that would still be a victory.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat\u2019s not an impressive feat,\u201d Herbst said. \u201cBut it compares very nicely with the failure of the Russian counteroffensive, which took nine months to take Bakhmut.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2023 Nexstar <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Media<\/a> Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/policy\/defense\/4123794-does-ukraine-have-a-second-summer-push-up-its-sleeve\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ukraine is trying to breathe fresh life into a largely stalled campaign to push back Russia\u2019s forces, launching a major push in the southern Zaporizhzhia region this week.\u00a0 After six weeks of slow gains, Kyiv and Washington insist a second phase of the counteroffensive could unleash intensified attacks on Moscow\u2019s forces and hasten Ukrainian gains&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":584680,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/dronesukraine_072523_ap_ukraine.jpg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[92499,134343,134353,134661,134447,70610,135638,139635,142765,71525,134904,143949,73234],"class_list":["post-584679","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-antony-blinken","tag-campaign","tag-court-battles","tag-energy-environment","tag-energy-and-environment","tag-finance","tag-jake-sullivan","tag-lobbying","tag-michael-ohanlon","tag-national-security","tag-russia-ukraine-war","tag-ukraine-counteroffensive","tag-vladimir-putin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/584679","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=584679"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/584679\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/584680"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=584679"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=584679"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=584679"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}