{"id":586961,"date":"2023-08-14T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-14T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/gop-sees-turnout-disaster-without-trump\/"},"modified":"2023-08-14T13:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-08-14T10:00:00","slug":"gop-sees-turnout-disaster-without-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/gop-sees-turnout-disaster-without-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"#GOP sees turnout disaster without Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/trump-supporters_080823ap_trump-turnout.jpg?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Republican strategists are worried that if former President Trump doesn\u2019t secure the GOP\u2019s presidential nomination next year, or if he is kept off the ballot because of his mounting legal problems, it could spell a voter turnout disaster for their party in 2024. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>GOP strategists say there\u2019s growing concern that if Trump is not the nominee, many of his core supporters, who are estimated to make up 25 percent to 35 percent of the party base, \u201cwill take their ball and go home.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cThe conventional wisdom is there\u2019s concern that if Trump\u2019s not the nominee, his coalition will take their ball and go home,\u201d said Matt Dole, a Republican strategist based in Ohio, where Republicans are targeting vulnerable Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFolks are interested in how that plays out, and so I think right now, they would be h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>y if Trump\u2019s the nominee \u2014 in Ohio, it\u2019s not true across the country \u2014 because then his coalition will turn out in November,\u201d he said. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A Pew Research Center analysis of the 2022 midterm election published last month found that higher turnout among Trump voters last year was a key factor behind Republicans winning control of the House.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The analysis found that 71 percent of voters who backed Trump participated in the midterm election, compared to 67 percent of voters who supported Biden. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Brian Darling, a Republican strategist and former Senate aide, said there would be significant political fallout for Republicans if federal and local criminal prosecutions derail Trump\u2019s path to the nomination. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf somehow he\u2019s not the nominee, it will hurt turnout,\u201d he said. \u201cHe\u2019s got a unique coalition. He brings a lot of nontraditional voters to the Republican Party, and it will be difficult to win a state like Ohio\u201d and other Midwestern states \u201cif you lose all those Trump voters or make them disaffected voters, and they don\u2019t show up.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Darling said Trump, who is leading his nearest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, by more than 30 points in national polls, has a \u201clock\u201d on the nomination and \u201cthe only way he loses if he\u2019s prevented from being on the ballot.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Trump already faces three criminal trials in New York City, Miami and Washington, D.C., and Fulton County (Ga.) District Attorney Fani Willis is expected to bring a dozen more charges against him related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results in Georgia. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Trump is fueling concerns about a split Republican electorate in 2024 by refusing to sign a Republican National Committee loyalty pledge.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cI would say there\u2019s two scenarios, either Trump\u2019s the nominee and we just go with it and whatever, or Trump\u2019s not the nominee and then we have a nominee that Trump\u2019s going to be trashing,\u201d said Bob Clegg, an Ohio-based Republican strategist. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Given the intense loyalty to Trump among many Republican voters, Clegg said there\u2019s little chance any other candidate will beat him out for the nomination. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think Trump\u2019s going to be the nominee,\u201d he said. \u201cEver since Trump came down that escalator in 2015, the face of politics in the United States has charged dramatically, and we\u2019re still in that\u201d new dynamic. \u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Republican senators and strategists thought Trump cost them control of the Senate after the 2020 election, when he claimed without evidence that his he lost Georgia because of fraud, depressing GOP voter turnout in the 2021 special election, which Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) and Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) won.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A few days before the special election, Trump declared those Senate races \u201cillegal and invalid.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A Senate Republican strategist said the special election in Ohio last Tuesday, where voters overwhelmingly defeated a ballot proposition that would have made it tougher to protect abortion rights, showed that if Trump\u2019s not on the ballot, it hurts GOP turnout in rural areas.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr5_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cWhat it says about the electorate more than anything is that without a presidential candidate \u2014 particularly Trump at the top of the ticket \u2014 rural voters do not turn out at the same rate,\u201d the strategist said. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, the strategist acknowledged that Trump\u2019s overwhelming popularity with blue-collar and rural voters is offset by his unpopularity with college-educated women and suburban voters.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Given the shift of college-educated women and suburban voters to Democrats since the Supreme Court\u2019s reversal of Roe v. Wade, Republicans are counting on big turnout in rural areas and from the so-called \u201cTrump coalition\u201d to win the presidential and congressional races next year. \u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr6_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cWith controversial issues like abortion in the suburbs, Republicans have to make up for it in rural parts of the state, and without Trump on the ballot, rural parts of the state just didn\u2019t turn out at the same rate,\u201d the strategist said of the election result in Ohio. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFor Republicans, the only hope is that when Trump is on the ballot in 2024 \u2026 he will turn out rural voters at a rate that overwhelms that phenomenon. It\u2019s certainly possible,\u201d the source said.<\/p>\n<p>David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said about 40 percent of Republican voters who feel confident about whom they will vote for next year are solidly behind Trump. \u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr7_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cConservatively, it looks like 4 out of 10,\u201d he said of the so-called Tier 1 voters. \u201cI haven\u2019t seen many polls where he below 40 [percent].\u201d \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Trump voters, even from our polling, have pretty much said: \u2018It\u2019s Trump or bust,\u2019\u201d he said. \u201cThere\u2019s a percentage of voters who won\u2019t even vote Republican if he doesn\u2019t get the nomination.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Paleologos said it\u2019s difficult for other Republican presidential candidates to \u201cnavigate\u201d in this environment, and \u201cTrump knows this.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A New York Times\/Siena College poll found that 52 percent of likely GOP voters are only considering Trump. Fifty-five percent of white voters without college degrees and 56 percent of nonwhite voters without college degrees said they were only considering Trump.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Trump has rejected entreaties from party leaders that he pledge to back the eventual Republican nominee for president if he fails to secure the nomination. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI wouldn\u2019t sign the pledge,\u201d he told <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a>max. \u201cWhy would I sign a pledge? There are people on there that I wouldn\u2019t have.\u201d \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Trump didn\u2019t say which rivals in particular he couldn\u2019t support over President Biden. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Darling, the Republican strategist, said Trump is the candidate best poised to win critical Midwestern states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLook what happened in 2016. He pulled together a unique coalition, and the Midwestern states of Wisconsin and Michigan were in play all of the sudden,\u201d he said. \u201cIf he\u2019s not the nominee somehow, I think those states will be much tougher to win.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2023 Nexstar <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Media<\/a> Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/senate\/4149548-gop-sees-turnout-disaster-without-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Republican strategists are worried that if former President Trump doesn\u2019t secure the GOP\u2019s presidential nomination next year, or if he is kept off the ballot because of his mounting legal problems, it could spell a voter turnout disaster for their party in 2024. \u00a0 GOP strategists say there\u2019s growing concern that if Trump is not&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":586962,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/trump-supporters_080823ap_trump-turnout.jpg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[117,134343,134353,4941,54080,71525,115,71104,70289,134352,145038,70640],"class_list":["post-586961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-business","tag-campaign","tag-court-battles","tag-donald-trump","tag-michigan","tag-national-security","tag-news","tag-pennsylvania","tag-senate","tag-senate-elections","tag-voter-turnout","tag-wisconsin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/586961","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=586961"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/586961\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/586962"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=586961"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=586961"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=586961"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}