{"id":588649,"date":"2023-08-26T16:32:54","date_gmt":"2023-08-26T13:32:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/its-game-over-what-prigozhins-end-means-for-wagner-group\/"},"modified":"2023-08-26T16:32:54","modified_gmt":"2023-08-26T13:32:54","slug":"its-game-over-what-prigozhins-end-means-for-wagner-group","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/its-game-over-what-prigozhins-end-means-for-wagner-group\/","title":{"rendered":"#\u2018It\u2019s game over\u2019: What Prigozhin\u2019s end means for Wagner Group"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/01\/wagnergroup_11042022ap.jpg?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Wagner Group\u2019s fate is hanging in the balance after its top field commander and chief Yevgeny Prigozhin were both presumably killed in a fiery plane crash.<\/p>\n<p>The private military company \u2014 a once wide-reaching empire that has helped prop up authoritarian regimes in several African countries and played a significant role in Russia\u2019s invasions of Ukraine \u2014 will increasingly come under Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s control, analysts told The Hill.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Putin and his military officials must decide what parts of the group to keep, what to discard \u2014 and how to keep the mercenaries in line.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>John Hardie, the deputy director of the Russia Program for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Wagner will be easier for Moscow to control \u201cwith Prigozhin, Utkin, and other top figures out of the picture.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBut without its core commanders, it won\u2019t be the same organization,\u201d he wrote in an analysis sent to The Hill. \u201cAnd their deaths could lead some Wagner fighters to grow disillusioned with service altogether.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Kremlin could also seek to disband the mercenary force, which includes thousands of fighters across the globe. However, Catrina Doxsee, a program manager and research associate with the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said major changes were unlikely.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s really in Russia\u2019s best interest to allow all of that operational infrastructure to continue with as little disruption as possible,\u201d she told The Hill. \u201cThe wide network that Prigozhin established has basically become the cornerstone of Russia\u2019s foreign policy in a lot of these regions.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>However, Doxsee said in the long-term Russia would likely seek to scale back Wagner\u2019s independence from the state and reduce its dominance.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cThe goal will be to ensure that there is tighter collaboration with the Russian government, tighter oversight,\u201d she said, \u201cand likely a push toward diversifying the <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a> marketplace\u201d for mercenary companies.<\/p>\n<p>Putin\u2019s plans aside, Wagner Group officials and fighters <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ear extremely upset about the presumed deaths of Prigozhin and co-founder Dmitry Utkin, who was a highly respected battlefield commander within the company. The group is actually named after Utkin\u2019s old call sign when he served in the Russian military.<\/p>\n<p>Telegram accounts associated with Wagner Group have spent the days after the <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a> broke eulogizing both men and blaming the Kremlin for the plane crash.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Russia is still investigating the crash but the U.S. believes\u00a0an internal explosion forced the plane down\u00a0and Biden administration officials said the incident is consistent with Putin\u2019s history of silencing critics. The Kremlin denied any role in the crash on Friday.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>On Friday, Wagner representatives wrote they were waiting for the word from top officers on next steps.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFirstly, in such a situation it is important not to act on emotions, you need to formulate a clear plan of action,\u201d\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/wagnernew\/9815\">they wrote<\/a>. \u201cSecondly, it is necessary to correctly redistribute responsibilities. Thirdly, we all need time to come to some conclusions.\u201d<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>There are some reports that Wagner could march on Moscow again, but military analysts say the private company lacks the resources or capabilities to conduct any kind of retaliatory action and is likely more interested in retaining its global operations.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/game\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" title=\"Game\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">game<\/a> over,\u201d said Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. \u201cI don\u2019t think that Wagner \u2014 without its leadership \u2014 has the wherewithal, the credibility, the influence, to mount another challenge.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The United Kingdom\u2019s Defense Ministry wrote in an\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DefenceHQ\/status\/1694949170681929891\">intelligence update<\/a>\u00a0on Friday that Prigozhin\u2019s apparent death would have a \u201cdestabilizing effect\u201d on the company.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr5_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cHis personal attributes of hyper-activity, exceptional audacity, a drive for results and extreme brutality permeated Wagner and are unlikely to be matched by any successor,\u201d it wrote.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The future of Wagner has been up in the air since June, when Prigozhin launched, then quickly abandoned, a mutiny against Moscow. The warlord exiled to Belarus in an apparent truce with Putin, but still reportedly shuttled in and out of Russia.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The uprising threw into question what would happen to Wagner\u2019s network in Mali, the Central African Republic, Sudan, Syria, and Libya<em>,<\/em>\u00a0which Russia sees as allies and has benefited from lucrative security, oil, gold mining, and other contracts gained in providing fighters to the countries.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr6_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>In the two months before Prighozin\u2019s crash, Putin was signaling his intention to wind down the capabilities of Wagner and lay the groundwork for new ownership.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In June, the Russian leader ordered the company to surrender its heavy weapons and announced publicly for the first time that Wagner was funded by the state. He also mentioned Prigozhin\u2019s Concord catering company would be investigated for potentially stealing from Russia\u2019s government.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, Putin has avoided criticizing Wagner\u2019s fighters, allowing them to go free after the mutiny.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr7_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Numerous Wagner fighters have relocated to Belarus, part of a deal brokered by Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko to end the standoff between Prigozhin and Putin as the mercenary chief marched on Moscow.<\/p>\n<p>Lukashenko on Friday said up to 10,000 mercenaries were either in his country or arriving soon and they would stay there \u201cas long as we need this unit.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPMC Wagner lived, PMC Wagner lives, and PMC Wagner will live in Belarus despite anyone\u2019s wishes to the contrary,\u201d Lukashenko said,\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/eng.belta.by\/president\/view\/pmc-wagner-personnel-to-stay-in-belarus-after-prigozhins-aircraft-crash-161292-2023\/\">according to<\/a>\u00a0Belarusian state-run <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">media<\/a> outlet Belta. \u201cPrigozhin and I came up with a system of how PMC Wagner will be accommodated in Belarus.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Belarusian relocation might end up benefiting Putin, allowing him to keep the troops parked there for time being while the war rages in nearby Ukraine.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Kupchan, from the Council on Foreign Relations, said he ultimately expects the Kremlin to create a hybrid structure in a way that allows the \u201cstate apparatus to have much more visibility into what Wagner is doing.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Mercenary armies \u201csometimes become sufficiently powerful and autonomous that they turn against the center,\u201d Kupchan said. \u201cPutin has learned his lesson and he\u2019s not going to allow Wagner to continue to exist as a standalone mercenary army.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. 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The private military company \u2014 a once wide-reaching empire that has helped prop up authoritarian regimes in several African countries and played a significant role in Russia\u2019s invasions of&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":588650,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/01\/wagnergroup_11042022ap.jpg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[134343,134353,73798,10574,71525,143551,70588,73234],"class_list":["post-588649","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-campaign","tag-court-battles","tag-defense","tag-education","tag-national-security","tag-race-politics","tag-video","tag-vladimir-putin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/588649","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=588649"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/588649\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/588650"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=588649"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=588649"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=588649"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}