{"id":592762,"date":"2023-09-30T22:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-30T19:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/abortion-may-not-be-a-game-changer-for-democrats-in-2024\/"},"modified":"2023-09-30T22:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-09-30T19:00:00","slug":"abortion-may-not-be-a-game-changer-for-democrats-in-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/abortion-may-not-be-a-game-changer-for-democrats-in-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"#Abortion may not be a game-changer for Democrats in 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/64651dbebc50a7.60315715-e1685102638906.jpeg?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Since the\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.supremecourt.gov\/opinions\/21pdf\/19-1392_6j37.pdf\">Dobbs v. Jackson Women\u2019s Health Organization<\/a>\u00a0Supreme Court decision was announced last year, there has been much discussion about the impact of the decision on the 2024 elections. Some have referred to the decision as a \u201c<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2023\/06\/23\/1183830459\/one-year-after-the-dobbs-ruling-abortion-has-changed-the-political-landscape\">political earthquake<\/a>,\u201d or asserted that the \u201cpolitical landscape has been\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2023\/06\/24\/abortion-politics-dobbs-anniversary\/\">altered significantly<\/a>, with no reversal in sight.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, Democrats believe that abortion is a winning issue for them. They have already started\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/us\/democrats-push-abortion-rights-heart-2024-campaign-2023-09-01\/\">airing ads<\/a>\u00a0attacking Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for supporting abortion bans, and Joe Biden plans to make his 2024 campaign for president \u201c<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2023\/06\/22\/biden-abortion-2024-campaign-reelection-00103158\">the most overtly abortion rights platform<\/a>\u201d in history.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>There is no doubt that the abortion issue was influential in 2022. Studies suggested it was a\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.kff.org\/report-section\/how-the-supreme-courts-dobbs-decision-played-in-2022-midterm-election-kff-ap-votecast-analysis-findings\/#:~:text=Large%20shares%20of%20women%20voters,nearly%20half%20(46%25)%20of\">motivating factor<\/a>\u00a0for women under 50 in the midterm elections that year. Many experts credit the issue for flipping the Michigan legislature from Republican to Democratic control and for mitigating Democratic losses <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a>ly in that election cycle. Also, when abortion was literally on the ballot, as it was in the six states that held abortion referenda, initiatives protecting abortion access prevailed in each state, including reliably <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/sections\/2022-live-primary-election-race-results\/2022\/08\/02\/1115317596\/kansas-voters-abortion-legal-reject-constitutional-amendment\">red states like Kansas<\/a> and <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/2022-election\/kentucky-voters-reject-anti-abortion-ballot-measure-rcna56313\">Kentucky<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>As a policy issue, Americans have long been divided on the legality of abortion. Even after Dobbs, which held that the states have the ability to make their own abortion laws, we have seen movement toward the extremes. There has been a\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/politics\/2023\/06\/18\/poll-abortion-support-dobbs-overturned-roe-v-wade\/70320647007\/\">shift<\/a>\u00a0by Democratic and independent voters to maintain or expand the protections provided under\u00a0Roe v. Wade\u00a0(1973), while a\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/6299810\/republican-polling-abortion-trump-desantis\/\">majority of Republicans<\/a>\u00a0have not softened their stances on abortion and support a complete ban.<\/p>\n<p>Although national polls about attitudes toward abortion are interesting, they are often not instructive for examining the issue\u2019s effect on 2024 elections since the Dobbs decision threw abortion back to the states. Since the decision was handed down, states have passed various types of abortion laws. States like Indiana and North Dakota have passed laws banning abortion entirely, states like South Carolina have a six-week ban and North Carolina passed a twelve-week ban with some exceptions.<\/p>\n<p>Despite Democrats\u2019 confidence that Americans are on their side concerning abortion, in a recent\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.meredith.edu\/meredith-poll\/n-c-voter-opinions-on-abortion-law-women-leaders-and-other-current-issues\/\">Meredith Poll<\/a>, we found that North Carolinians were almost evenly divided between those supporting the new abortion law (47 percent) and those opposed to it (45 percent). We also found that only 14 percent of those surveyed identified abortion as the top issue in terms of their voting decision in 2024\u2014well behind economic issues, which was the top issue for 40 percent of respondents. Finally, we asked about the new abortion law\u2019s effect on motivating the respondents to vote, and there were no differences in the law\u2019s impact on men and women voters or voters in different age groups. There were only slight differences between Democratic and Republican voters who saw abortion as a motivating issue.<\/p>\n<p>The other problem with giving abortion too much significance in the 2024 elections is that it discounts the effects of polarization on the American voter. Two kinds of polarization are affective polarization, or feeling close to your chosen party and negatively about the opposing party, and policy polarization, or people of different parties choosing very different policy outcomes. Using data from the\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.meredith.edu\/meredith-poll\/\">Meredith Poll<\/a>\u00a0from 2017-2023, we analyzed responses to questions about policy issues, including abortion, as well as their perceptions of people affiliated with the two major parties. We found that affective polarization was\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com\/2023\/04\/nc-perceptions-polarization.html\">significantly<\/a>\u00a0stronger than policy polarization, even on a divisive issue like abortion.<\/p>\n<p>The bottom line for 2024 is whether voters\u2014even those who have strong policy preferences on the issue of abortion\u2014will vote based on their position on abortion or for their political party. Our evidence suggests that Democrats may be overstating the influence of abortion, and party identification will be a better predictor of a person\u2019s vote.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p><em>David McLennan is a professor of political <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/sciencee\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"5\" title=\"Science\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">science<\/a> at Meredith College and director of the Meredith Poll. Whitney Ross Manzo is an associate professor of political science at Meredith and assistant director of the Meredith Poll<\/em><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2023 Nexstar <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Media<\/a> Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/opinion\/congress-blog\/4231921-abortion-may-not-be-a-game-changer-for-democrats-in-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since the\u00a0Dobbs v. Jackson Women\u2019s Health Organization\u00a0Supreme Court decision was announced last year, there has been much discussion about the impact of the decision on the 2024 elections. Some have referred to the decision as a \u201cpolitical earthquake,\u201d or asserted that the \u201cpolitical landscape has been\u00a0altered significantly, with no reversal in sight.\u201d Indeed, Democrats believe&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":592763,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/64651dbebc50a7.60315715-e1685102638906.jpeg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[137644,71607,134418,134353,90482,991,115,29102,70289,134345],"class_list":["post-592762","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-2024-election","tag-abortion","tag-congress-blog","tag-court-battles","tag-house","tag-joe-biden","tag-news","tag-ron-desantis","tag-senate","tag-state-watch"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/592762","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=592762"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/592762\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/592763"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=592762"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=592762"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=592762"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}