{"id":592908,"date":"2023-10-02T05:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-02T02:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/what-would-chinas-collapse-mean-for-the-race-to-the-moon\/"},"modified":"2023-10-02T05:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-10-02T02:00:00","slug":"what-would-chinas-collapse-mean-for-the-race-to-the-moon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/what-would-chinas-collapse-mean-for-the-race-to-the-moon\/","title":{"rendered":"#What would China\u2019s collapse mean for the race to the moon?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/china_space_moon_05232023_AP_AP23150509312190.jpg?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>One of the more significant developments of the current decade had been the second\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/science\/2023\/jan\/02\/china-moon-nasa-space-race\">race to the moon<\/a>. While NASA and a coalition of nations and commercial companies have started\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/specials\/artemis\/\">Project Artemis<\/a>, China has begun\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2023\/07\/13\/china\/china-crewed-moon-landing-2030-intl-hnk-scn\/index.html\">its own lunar effort<\/a>. The prize is not so much the bragging rights for the side who gets to the moon first but which side accesses the abundant resources of Earth\u2019s nearest neighbor.<\/p>\n<p>But geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan has a prediction that could throw the idea of a moon race between two superpowers in doubt. Zeihan believes that\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=mqA5NODRnQI\">China has at most 10 years before it collapses.<\/a><\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Zeihan thinks China\u2019s end is near because of the\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2023\/aug\/16\/china-fertility-rate-dropped-to-record-low-in-2022-estimates-show#:~:text=Demographers%20from%20the%20China%20Population,which%20was%20estimated%20to%20be\">fall in birth rates<\/a>, which has only accelerated since the end of the one-child policy. China\u2019s belligerence, even toward\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/china-foreign-business-corruption-investigation-technology-113adfa55788aabb11896d8b059b32bc\">commercial firms<\/a>\u00a0that might be inclined to invest in that country, is not helpful. China has not recovered from the strict\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/china\/2023\/06\/01\/china-goes-from-zero-covid-to-zero-restrictions\">lockdown measures<\/a>\u00a0instituted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Chinese President Xi Jinping\u2019s crackdown on the flow of information, an attempt to prevent the rise of rivals, means that he will not have any warning to change policies until it is too late.<\/p>\n<p>By the way, China is also <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-asia-china-66956769\">experiencing<\/a> a real estate bubble that could wreak havoc when it eventually bursts.<\/p>\n<p>Zeihan is a little vague about what a collapsed China would look like, beyond pointing out that it would no longer provide products that the Western world needs to survive. It could be anything from what Russia was soon after the Soviet Union fell to total anarchy, similar to\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.worldhistory.org\/Warring_States_Period\/\">the Warring States period<\/a>\u00a0that started some 25 centuries ago.<\/p>\n<p>Leaving aside some of the scarier parts of a country with nuclear weapons falling into chaos, Zeihan\u2019s prediction could have ramifications for the current race to the moon and continued political support for Project Artemis.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s no secret that one reason why Artemis has garnered political support is fear that China will return to the moon before the NASA-led alliance can, garnering the international prestige and, perhaps, the rich natural resources that Earth\u2019s nearest neighbor has in abundance. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson, a former United States senator, rarely fails to mention\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.space.com\/nasa-bill-nelson-china-space-race-moon\">that the world is engaged in a second race to the moon<\/a>. The prospect of a Chinese victory in Space Race 2.0 would be dire.<\/p>\n<p>But everything changes if, as Zeihan predicts, China collapses. With no space race and no threat of a Chinese space hegemony, supporters of the Artemis program will have to scramble for other reasons to return to the moon. Otherwise, opponents of an imminent return,\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/feelthebern.org\/bernie-sanders-on-science-and-technology\/\">like<\/a>\u00a0Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) may reassert themselves. Why spend all that money to send astronauts to the lunar surface when we have so many problems on Earth?<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Even without a space race to provide the spirit of competition, plenty of reasons exist to return to the moon. Those reasons include <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/sciencee\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"5\" title=\"Science\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">science<\/a>, commerce, and soft political power. The world will profit from a return to the moon beyond winning a great power competition.<\/p>\n<p>Still, competition matters. Because of the Cold War, humankind went from launching a basketball-sized satellite in low Earth orbit in 1957 to walking on the moon in 1969. Since the end of the first moon race, progress in space has been slow and halting, The pace has only picked up after the rise of a hostile China as a major space power. The American-Chinese rivalry has\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/business-66753675.amp\">spurred investment<\/a>\u00a0in space <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/technology\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"4\" title=\"Technology\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">technology<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, even in a post-China world, competition in space will still exist but the players will be private companies such as\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spacex.com\/\">SpaceX,<\/a>\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.blueorigin.com\/\">Blue Origin<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rocketlabusa.com\/\">Rocket Lab<\/a>. SpaceX has already become a big winner by gaining contracts for the\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/exploration\/commercial\/crew\/index.html\">Commercial Crew<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/humans-in-space\/nasa-awards-spacex-second-contract-option-for-artemis-moon-landing\/\">Human Landing System<\/a>\u00a0programs. Once the moon, Mars and beyond have been opened to commercial activity, the sky will literally be the limit for who can reap the natural and energy resources waiting in space. Artemis can be the catalyst of the greatest gold rush in history.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Of course, Zeihan\u2019s timeline may be a little off. Sinologist Gordon Chang published \u201c<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3rxrgwD\">The Coming Collapse of China<\/a>\u201d in 2001. Currently, the nation remains a dangerous and powerful U.S. foe on Earth as well as in space. Even so, the fall of the current regime in Beijing is likely to h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>en sooner or later. Freedom wins out over tyranny every time. And free people will inherit not just the Earth but the stars, as well.<\/p>\n<p><em>Mark Whittington, who writes frequently about space policy, has published a political study of space exploration entitled\u00a0<\/em><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Why-So-Hard-Back-Moon\/dp\/1515362701\/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&amp;qid=&amp;sr=\"><em>Why is It So Hard to Go Back to the Moon?<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0as well as\u00a0<\/em><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Moon-Mars-Beyond-Mark-Whittington-ebook\/dp\/B078QBL74C\/ref=pd_rhf_gw_p_img_2?_encoding=UTF8&amp;psc=1&amp;refRID=84WE12QFGYZ64P5EVVP9\"><em>The Moon, Mars and Beyond<\/em><\/a><em>, and, most recently,\u00a0<\/em><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/B095CTHTD1\/ref=as_sl_pc_tf_til?tag=nocturnthewebs0d&amp;linkCode=w00&amp;linkId=138daac505adf175f2d36813f0654421&amp;creativeASIN=B095CTHTD1\"><em>Why is America Going Back to the Moon?<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0He blogs at\u00a0<\/em><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/curmudgeons.blogspot.com\/\"><em>Curmudgeons Corner.<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0 He is published in the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, The Hill, USA Today, the LA Times, and the Washington Post, among other venues.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2023 Nexstar <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Media<\/a> Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/opinion\/technology\/4230559-what-would-chinas-collapse-mean-for-the-race-to-the-moon\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One of the more significant developments of the current decade had been the second\u00a0race to the moon. While NASA and a coalition of nations and commercial companies have started\u00a0Project Artemis, China has begun\u00a0its own lunar effort. The prize is not so much the bragging rights for the side who gets to the moon first but&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":592909,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/china_space_moon_05232023_AP_AP23150509312190.jpg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[146155,51421,138263,134417,134343,146156,141938,90482,133498,146157,115,141939,12005,4965,71663],"class_list":["post-592908","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-artemis-accords","tag-bernie-sanders","tag-bill-nelson","tag-blog-briefing-room","tag-campaign","tag-china-economy","tag-china-united-states-relations","tag-house","tag-in-the-know","tag-moon-mission","tag-news","tag-politics-of-the-united-states","tag-space-exploration","tag-technology","tag-xi-jinping"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/592908","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=592908"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/592908\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/592909"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=592908"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=592908"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=592908"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}