{"id":593042,"date":"2023-10-03T05:42:17","date_gmt":"2023-10-03T02:42:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/6-reasons-a-recession-is-in-the-cards-soon\/"},"modified":"2023-10-03T05:42:17","modified_gmt":"2023-10-03T02:42:17","slug":"6-reasons-a-recession-is-in-the-cards-soon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/6-reasons-a-recession-is-in-the-cards-soon\/","title":{"rendered":"#6 reasons a recession is in the cards soon"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3d8293e296a\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3d8293e296a\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/6-reasons-a-recession-is-in-the-cards-soon\/#Soft_landing_optimism_%E2%80%98always_comes_before_a_recession\" >Soft landing optimism \u2018always\u2019 comes before a recession<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/6-reasons-a-recession-is-in-the-cards-soon\/#The_full_impact_of_Fed_hikes_havent_been_felt_yet\" >The full impact of Fed hikes haven\u2019t been felt yet<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/6-reasons-a-recession-is-in-the-cards-soon\/#There_are_already_indicators_of_an_economic_downturn\" >There are already indicators of an economic downturn<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/6-reasons-a-recession-is-in-the-cards-soon\/#Threats_to_the_economy_are_still_emerging\" >Threats to the economy are still emerging<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/6-reasons-a-recession-is-in-the-cards-soon\/#Consumer_spending_could_likely_see_a_drop\" >Consumer spending could likely see a drop<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/6-reasons-a-recession-is-in-the-cards-soon\/#The_credit_squeeze_is_only_beginning\" >The credit squeeze is only beginning<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/AP22269668737218-e1694608072674.jpg?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>While the summer brought lower inflation rates, higher jobs rates and boosts of consumer spending, Bloomberg Economics <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-10-01\/6-reasons-why-a-us-recession-is-likely-and-coming-soon?leadSource=uverify%20wall#xj4y7vzkg\">is warning a recession<\/a> is more likely than not h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ening soon.<\/p>\n<p>Citing the ongoing autoworkers strike, the return of student loan repayments and the looming threat of a government shutdown after Congress\u2019s short-term spending bill lapses in November,\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-10-01\/6-reasons-why-a-us-recession-is-likely-and-coming-soon?leadSource=uverify%20wall#xj4y7vzkg\">Bloomberg predicted<\/a>\u00a0at least a percentage point decrease in GDP growth in the fourth quarter.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Here are six reasons a recession is likely to hit the U.S. soon, according to Bloomberg Economics.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Soft_landing_optimism_%E2%80%98always_comes_before_a_recession\"><\/span>Soft landing optimism \u2018always\u2019 comes before a recession<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Referencing data that showed optimism about the economy often peaks before a downturn hits, Bloomberg pointed to then-San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen comments in 2007, where she predicted a soft landing two months before the beginning of the Great Recession.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Last month, Yellen, now the secretary for the Treasury Department\u00a0\u00a0said she\u00a0is \u201cfeeling very good\u201d about the U.S. making a soft economic landing without a recession.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>As for why economists often do not anticipate recessions, Bloomberg pointed to the non-linear nature of recessions that contradict peoples\u2019 usual predictions that similar trends naturally will continue. <\/p>\n<p>Bloomberg used the example of the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbo.gov\/publication\/59258#:~:text=The%20unemployment%20rate%20reaches%204.1,to%204.5%20percent%2C%20in%202025.\">Federal Reserve\u2019s latest unemployment forecast<\/a>, which predicted the jobless rate to reach 4.1 percent by the end of 2023 and 4.7 percent by the end of 2024, which would indicate avoiding a recession. <\/p>\n<p>Looking at a hypothetical break in the trend in the case of an economic downfall, Bloomberg\u2019s model predicted much higher unemployment rates than currently forecast by the Federal Reserve.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_full_impact_of_Fed_hikes_havent_been_felt_yet\"><\/span><strong>The full impact of Fed hikes haven\u2019t been felt yet<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Bloomberg stressed the full effects of the Fed\u2019s hikes won\u2019t likely come until the end of 2023 or early 2024, prompting a \u201cturn down\u201d in stocks and housing. <\/p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve raised its rates multiple times over the past year and a half, reaching a 22-year high in an effort to combat inflation.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>On Monday, Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman\u00a0said\u00a0additional interest rate hikes will likely be needed in the wake of rising energy prices in order to get inflation back to its 2 percent target.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"There_are_already_indicators_of_an_economic_downturn\"><\/span><strong>There are already indicators of an economic downturn<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Using a model to study the six indicators used by National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to analyze an economic downturn, Bloomberg Economics found there is a more than average chance that NBER will announce at some point next year that a U.S. recession began in the last few months of 2023.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Threats_to_the_economy_are_still_emerging\"><\/span><strong>Threats to the economy are still emerging<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>The United Auto Workers (UAW) strike:\u00a0<\/strong>While it is still too early to quantify the full economic impact of the UAW\u2019s ongoing strike against the \u201cBig Three\u201d automakers \u2014 Ford, Stellantis, and <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General<\/a> Motors, experts predict it could cost the economy billions. In\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.andersoneconomicgroup.com\/10-day-uaw-strike-against-big-three-could-cause-economic-losses-exceeding-5-billion\/\">an August report<\/a>, The Anderson Economic Group estimated a full-fledged 10-day strike against the Big Three could top $5 billion.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li><strong>The return of student loan bills:\u00a0<\/strong>Student loan payments returned Sunday after a more-than-three-year pause. Bloomberg estimated the resumption of payments could shave around 0.2-0.3 percent from annualized growth in the fourth quarter.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li><strong>The surge of oil prices:\u00a0<\/strong>Crude prices have continued to peak as production cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia impact global markets and keep gas prices near summer highs.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li><strong>Government shutdown:\u00a0<\/strong>Congress reached a deal over the weekend on a short-term stopgap funding bill that will fund the government through Nov. 17. A shutdown could still occur if they cannot agree on full-year spending bills, bringing the potential for impact on the fourth quarter GDP numbers. Bloomberg Economics estimated each week of shutdown shaves off around 0.2 percentage point off annualized GDP growth. A lot, but not all, is able to be recovered when the government reopens, Bloomberg noted.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bloomberg also cited the yield curve and a global slump as emerging threats to the economy. <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Consumer_spending_could_likely_see_a_drop\"><\/span><strong>Consumer spending could likely see a drop<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>While events like the Beyonce and Taylor Swift concerts, or the movie releases of \u201cBarbie\u201d and \u201cOppenheimer\u201d boosted the third quarter GDP, Bloomberg predicted this surge in spending was a \u201clast hurrah,\u201d and that any extra savings Americans had from the pandemic will likely be running out soon.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Maintaining delinquency rates may be low right now, Bloomberg said data shows a surge in credit-card delinquency rates as well as parts of the auto loan market are beginning to rise. <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_credit_squeeze_is_only_beginning\"><\/span><strong>The credit squeeze is only beginning<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Looking at the Fed\u2019s survey of senior loan officers at banks, Bloomberg reported the latest reading shows around half of large and mid-sized banks are establishing tougher criteria for commercial and industrial loans. Besides the pandemic period, Bloomberg reported this is the highest since the 2008 financial crisis.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Bloomberg said this impact will begin in the fourth quarter of 2023 and could lead to weakened investment and hiring.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2023 Nexstar <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Media<\/a> Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/business\/4235058-6-reasons-a-recession-is-in-the-cards-soon\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While the summer brought lower inflation rates, higher jobs rates and boosts of consumer spending, Bloomberg Economics is warning a recession is more likely than not happening soon. Citing the ongoing autoworkers strike, the return of student loan repayments and the looming threat of a government shutdown after Congress\u2019s short-term spending bill lapses in November,\u00a0Bloomberg&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":593043,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/AP22269668737218-e1694608072674.jpg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[81188,134344,134417,117,134343,5069,70550,73014,90482,70552,139856,91261],"class_list":["post-593042","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-janet-yellen","tag-administration","tag-blog-briefing-room","tag-business","tag-campaign","tag-economy","tag-federal-reserve","tag-health-care","tag-house","tag-interest-rates","tag-michelle-bowman","tag-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/593042","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=593042"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/593042\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/593043"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=593042"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=593042"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=593042"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}