{"id":593411,"date":"2023-10-06T17:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-06T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/will-mexico-seize-the-moment-and-capitalize-on-nearshoring\/"},"modified":"2023-10-06T17:30:00","modified_gmt":"2023-10-06T14:30:00","slug":"will-mexico-seize-the-moment-and-capitalize-on-nearshoring","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/will-mexico-seize-the-moment-and-capitalize-on-nearshoring\/","title":{"rendered":"#Will Mexico seize the moment and capitalize on nearshoring?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/International-Blinken_092923_AP_Mark-Schiefelbein.jpg?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>This year has not been good for most emerging economies that have felt the impact of rising\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/releases\/h15\/\">interest rates<\/a>, a\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.un.org\/en\/desa\/5-things-you-need-know-about-global-economy-2023#:~:text=Global%20growth%20is%20now%20projected,and%20recovery%20of%20China's%20economy.\">slowdown in the global economy<\/a>\u00a0and a\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Blogs\/Articles\/2023\/07\/19\/emerging-market-economies-bear-the-brunt-of-a-stronger-dollar\">firm U.S. dollar<\/a>. Amid this, Mexico is an outlier: Its economy has fared better than expected and its stock market has outperformed other emerging economies.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The Mexican peso has also been one of the<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/world-nation\/story\/2023-09-05\/mexico-peso-soaring-us-dollar-remittances-worth-less#:~:text=But%20that%20was%20before%20the,President%20Andr%C3%A9s%20Manuel%20L%C3%B3pez%20Obrador.\">\u00a0world\u2019s strongest currencies<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>reciating by 15 percent versus the dollar over the past 12 months. The peso has been supported by the Bank of Mexico maintaining a<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-09-28\/mexico-keeps-11-25-rate-amid-inflation-threats-faster-growth?embedded-checkout=true\">\u00a0policy rate of 11.25 percent<\/a>, which is well above the country\u2019s inflation rate of 5 percent.\u00a0 Increased remittances from the U.S. have also tipped Mexico\u2019s current account into surplus providing added support for the currency.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Mexico\u2019s strong showing has coincided with heightened tensions between the U.S. and China, as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. In the process, Mexico recently has overtaken China as the<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/graphics\/2023-mexico-china-us-trade-opportunity\/\">\u00a0largest trading partner of the U.S<\/a>.: Its share of U.S. imports now stands at 15 percent while China\u2019s share has fallen to 14.6 percent as of July, down from a high of 20 percent in 2018.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-05-22\/mexico-s-foreign-investment-surges-48-as-nearshoring-booms?embedded-checkout=true\">Foreign direct investment<\/a>\u00a0into Mexico is also on the rise: Greenfield foreign direct investment reached a record $40 billion in 2022, and it has increased by 40 percent in the first half of this year over a year ago.\u00a0\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fdiintelligence.com\/content\/feature\/mexicos-moment-in-the-sun-82550\">According to FDI Intelligence<\/a>, manufacturing projects accounted for more than half of last year\u2019s tally, with automotive companies leading the way. U.S.-based companies accounted for 41 percent of the inflows, followed by 28 percent for Asian companies, many of which are seeking to circumvent tariffs and become more integrated into the North American market.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>One of the most heralded developments this year is<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.electrive.com\/2023\/06\/29\/tesla-plant-in-mexico-later-and-larger-than-expected\/\">\u00a0Tesla\u2019s announcement<\/a>\u00a0of plans to build a gigafactory in Monterrey, Mexico with the aim of producing an electronic vehicle for the masses that will cost $25,000. The latest plans call for a plant to be running by the first quarter of 2025 that will have an annual production capacity of 2 million vehicles and employ about 7,000 workers. The total investment is estimated at $10 billion dollars, which is twice the original estimate.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Tesla\u2019s plan is being hailed by the corporate <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">media<\/a> as a way of modernizing Mexican industry, and it has attracted other businesses to the country. The \u201c<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/autos-transportation\/tesla-suppliers-invest-15-bln-mexico-factory-local-governor-2023-09-12\/\">multiplier effect<\/a>\u201d is apparent as companies that produce components such as electric parts, brakes and windshields are setting up or expanding operations in nearby areas. This has increased the need to expand infrastructure to alleviate strains as plants are being hit by power blackouts.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, other carmakers including\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2021\/04\/29\/gm-to-invest-1-billion-in-mexico-for-electric-vehicle-production.html\">General Motors<\/a>,\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/electrek.co\/2023\/05\/17\/kia-and-hyundai-to-build-evs-in-mexico-for-ira-tax-credit-eligibility\/\">Kia Motors<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/autos-transportation\/carmaker-bmw-invest-around-870-mln-mexico-ev-push-2023-02-03\/\">BMW<\/a>\u00a0have announced EV investments in Mexico since the start of 2021. In the process, industrial parks are filling up quickly not only in Monterrey, but also in other areas such as Mexico City and Baja, Calif. This shows up in a<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbvaresearch.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Nearshoring-Outlook-Eng-10Jul23.pdf\">\u00a0decline in nationwide vacancies<\/a>\u00a0to 2.1 percent last year, according to the Mexican Association of Private Industrial Parks.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The big question is whether the surge in industrial activity will mark a turning point for Mexico\u2019s economy, or whether Mexico will be unable to fulfill high expectations as it did in the early 1990s. Foreign investors were attracted to Mexico then, as the country\u2019s finances improved and it was able to tap international capital markets after being shut out for a decade. However, the government was forced to devalue the peso in 1994-95 and Mexican banks incurred substantial loan losses. While the<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/mexico-in-crisis-the-u-s-to-the-rescue-the-financial-assistance-packages-of-1982-and-1995\/\">\u00a0U.S. government came to Mexico\u2019s rescue<\/a>\u00a0by providing assistance totaling close to $50 billion, foreign investors looked elsewhere for opportunities.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>The main allure for investors today is that Mexico has become a destination of choice for foreign companies looking to export products to the U.S. \u2014 commonly known as \u201cnearshoring.\u201d However, the federal government has been criticized for not being proactive in taking action to encourage foreign investment.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, is one of the most outspoken critics of Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Berg sees Obrador as an erratic populist who demonstrates little interest in promoting Mexico\u2019s status as a manufacturing hub.\u00a0 In assessing the<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/after-amlo-economic-security-and-political-outlook-mexico-2024\">\u00a0Outlook for Mexico in 2024<\/a>, Berg states: \u201cIn short, Mexico in 2024 looks economically stagnant despite the once-in-a-generation opportunity presented by nearshoring.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A related concern is that<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/article\/back-future-us-mexican-relations\">\u00a0U.S.-Mexican relations have deteriorated<\/a>\u00a0during Obrador\u2019s presidency, and there is a risk they could worsen over the next year and beyond with pivotal elections in both countries.\u00a0 Mexico\u2019s ruling party has selected<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/mexicos-ruling-party-declares-claudia-sheinbaum-2024-presidential-candidate-2023-09-07\/\">\u00a0Claudia Sheinbaum<\/a>, former Mexico City mayor, to be its 2024 presidential candidate. She is a close ally of Obrador and recent voter surveys have her as the favorite to succeed him.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Accordingly, while Mexico now is reaping the benefits from geopolitical developments, foreign investors must assess<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/nathanielparishflannery\/2023\/03\/08\/what-do-nearshoring-executives-need-to-understand-about-mexico\/?sh=661ae0f140d3\">\u00a0an array of risks within Mexico<\/a>. One is the likelihood of policies being reversed such as has happened in Mexico\u2019s energy sector or recent\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/dd2454a9-67fa-4ff2-bf4d-09ab72863881\">legislation<\/a>\u00a0that guts Mexico\u2019s independent electoral institution. Another is the lack of physical security for goods that pass along the network of roads and highways going to the United States.\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/cutting-cartel-recruitment-could-be-only-way-reduce-mexico-s-violence\">One study<\/a>\u00a0contends that Mexican cartels rank as the nation\u2019s fifth-largest industry.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The bottom line is that views on Mexico\u2019s prospects are split. Many economists and analysts see Mexico as poised for success because of its proximity to the U.S. As Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/nathanielparishflannery\/2023\/03\/08\/what-do-nearshoring-executives-need-to-understand-about-mexico\/?sh=286fbc0140d3\">observes<\/a>, \u201cMexico is the country that stands to benefit the most from nearshoring.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Others, however, see<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/nathanielparishflannery\/2023\/03\/22\/president-lopez-obrador-is-squandering-mexicos-economic-potential\/?sh=71139cf639c8\">\u00a0significant problems<\/a>.\u00a0They include Sen Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.) who has stated, \u201cThe Mexican government is no longer in charge of most of their country. It\u2019s a narco-terrorist state.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>For the time being, an increasing number of companies are deciding that the opportunities outweigh the risks. The Mexican government, however, must address the country\u2019s challenges to capitalize on the opportunities.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em>Nicholas\u00a0Sargen, Ph.D. is an economic consultant for Fort Washington Investment Advisors and is affiliated with the University of Virginia\u2019s Darden School of Business. He has authored three books including \u201cGlobal Shocks: An Investment Guide for Turbulent Markets.\u201d\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/opinion\/international\/4240291-will-mexico-seize-the-moment-and-capitalize-on-nearshoring\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This year has not been good for most emerging economies that have felt the impact of rising\u00a0interest rates, a\u00a0slowdown in the global economy\u00a0and a\u00a0firm U.S. dollar. Amid this, Mexico is an outlier: Its economy has fared better than expected and its stock market has outperformed other emerging economies.\u00a0 The Mexican peso has also been one&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":593412,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/International-Blinken_092923_AP_Mark-Schiefelbein.jpg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[74258,134343,134661,73014,90482,124783,71671,141939,146262,141862,146263,70588],"class_list":["post-593411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador","tag-campaign","tag-energy-environment","tag-health-care","tag-house","tag-international","tag-lindsey-graham","tag-politics-of-the-united-states","tag-reshoring","tag-us-mexico-relations","tag-us-mexico-trade","tag-video"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/593411","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=593411"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/593411\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/593412"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=593411"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=593411"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=593411"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}