{"id":596060,"date":"2023-10-30T23:19:28","date_gmt":"2023-10-30T20:19:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/bitcoin-options-data-highlights-traders-belief-in-further-btc-price-upside\/"},"modified":"2023-10-30T23:19:28","modified_gmt":"2023-10-30T20:19:28","slug":"bitcoin-options-data-highlights-traders-belief-in-further-btc-price-upside","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-options-data-highlights-traders-belief-in-further-btc-price-upside\/","title":{"rendered":"# Bitcoin options data highlights traders\u2019 belief in further BTC price upside"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3d28d69d428\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3d28d69d428\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-options-data-highlights-traders-belief-in-further-btc-price-upside\/#How_confident_are_Bitcoin_option_traders\" >How confident are Bitcoin option traders?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/bitcoin-options-data-highlights-traders-belief-in-further-btc-price-upside\/#Extraordinary_options_premiums_and_continued_optimism\" >Extraordinary options premiums and continued optimism<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p itemprop=\"description\" class=\"post__lead\" data-v-8081b7b6> Open interest on Bitcoin options recently hit a year-to-date high, but what is fueling this newfound bullish sentiment?   <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"post-content\" data-v-8081b7b6>The recent gains are a rare sight in 2023, even considering Bitcoin&#8217;s impressive 108% year-to-date performance. Notably, the last instance of such price action occurred on March 14 when Bitcoin surged from $20,750 to $26,000 in just two days, marking a 25.2% price increase.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-10\/32d5458b-6433-467b-85f1-04aea46f5c1d.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Deribit BTC options daily volume, in BTC. Source: Deribit<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>It&#8217;s worth noting the significance of the fact that a staggering 208,000 contracts changed hands in a mere two days. To put this into perspective, the prior peak, which occurred on August 18, saw a total of 132,000 contracts exchanged, but that was during a period when Bitcoin&#8217;s price plummeted by 10.7% from $29,090 to $25,980 in just two days. Interestingly, Bitcoin&#8217;s options open interest, which measures outstanding contracts for every expiry, reached its highest level in over 12 months on Oct. 26.<\/p>\n<p>This surge in activity has led some analysts to emphasize the potential &#8220;gamma squeeze&#8221; risk. This theoretical analysis seeks to capture the need for option market makers to cover their risk based on their likely exposure.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#bitcoin<\/a> gamma squeeze from last week could h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>en again <\/p>\n<p>if BTCUSD moves higher to $35,750-36k, options dealers will need to buy $20m in spot BTC for every 1% upside move, which could cause explosiveness if we begin to move up towards those levels<\/p>\n<p>more  <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/OA9tJ0ZaK9\">pic.twitter.com\/OA9tJ0ZaK9<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intangiblecoins\/status\/1718789234398556416?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 30, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>According to estimates from Galaxy Research and Amberdata, BTC options market makers may need to cover $40 million for every 2% positive move in Bitcoin&#8217;s spot price. While this number may seem substantial, it pales in comparison to Bitcoin&#8217;s staggering daily adjusted volume of $7.8 billion.<\/p>\n<p>Another aspect to consider when assessing Bitcoin options volume and total open interest is whether these instruments have primarily been used for hedging purposes or neutral-to-bullish strategies. To address this ambiguity, one should closely monitor the demand difference between call (buy) and put (sell) options.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-10\/31d0f1f0-6975-4727-a45a-1d5f42f77329.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin options put-to-call volume ratio. Source: Laevitas.ch<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Notably, the period from Oct. 16 to Oct. 26 saw a predominance of neutral-to-bullish call options, with the ratio consistently remaining below 1. Consequently, the excessive volume observed on Oct. 23 and 24 was skewed towards call options. <\/p>\n<p>However, the landscape changed as investors increasingly sought protective put options, reaching a peak of 68% higher demand on Oct. 28. More recently, the metric shifted to a neutral 1.10 ratio on Oct. 30, indicating a balanced demand between put and call options.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_confident_are_Bitcoin_option_traders\"><\/span>How confident are Bitcoin option traders?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>To gauge whether investors using options have grown more confident as Bitcoin&#8217;s price held above $34,000 on Oct. 30, one should analyze the Bitcoin options delta skew. When traders anticipate a drop in Bitcoin&#8217;s price, the delta 25% skew tends to rise above 7%, while periods of excitement typically see it dip below negative 7%.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-10\/fd888a8e-fc32-45d4-af70-940a0e6564fb.png\"><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew. Source: Laevitas<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The Bitcoin options&#8217; 25% delta skew shifted to a neutral position on Oct. 24 after residing in bullish territory for five consecutive days. However, as investors realized that the $33,500 support level proved more resilient than anticipated, their confidence improved on Oct. 27, causing the skew indicator to re-enter the bullish zone below negative 7%.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Related: <\/em><\/strong><strong><em>Bitcoin\u2019s bull move might not be over yet \u2014 Here are 3 reasons why<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Extraordinary_options_premiums_and_continued_optimism\"><\/span>Extraordinary options premiums and continued optimism<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Two noteworthy observations emerge from this data. Bitcoin bulls utilizing options contracts prior to the 17% rally that began on Oct. 23 were paying the highest premium relative to put options in over 12 months. A negative 18% skew is highly uncommon and signifies extreme confidence or optimism, likely fueled by expectations of the spot Bitcoin ETF.<\/p>\n<p>What stands out most, however, is the present negative 13% skew after Bitcoin&#8217;s price surged by 26.7% in the 15 days leading up to Oct. 27. Normally, investors would seek protective puts to hedge some of their gains, but this did not occur. Consequently, even if the initial demand for call options was primarily driven by ETF expectations, the prevailing optimism has endured as Bitcoin soared above $34,000.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin (BTC) options volumes experienced a significant surge on Oct. 23 and Oct. 24, marking the highest level in over six months. This activity coincided with a remarkable 17% BTC price rally over two days. Traders are now pondering whether the increased activity in the BTC options market can be solely attributed to the anticipation of a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) or if the optimism has dwindled following the recent price surge above $34,000.<\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\"><\/template><\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-options-highlights-traders-belief-in-btc-price-upside\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Open interest on Bitcoin options recently hit a year-to-date high, but what is fueling this newfound bullish sentiment? The recent gains are a rare sight in 2023, even considering Bitcoin&#8217;s impressive 108% year-to-date performance. Notably, the last instance of such price action occurred on March 14 when Bitcoin surged from $20,750 to $26,000 in just&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":596061,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=1200\/https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-10\/ed806237-bcdd-4daf-8998-9059d5ee965d.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[74862,81209,74937,74863,74860,75012,75849,74939,73785],"class_list":["post-596060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-options","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-cryptocurrency-exchange","tag-derivatives","tag-etf","tag-market-analysis","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596060","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=596060"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596060\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/596061"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=596060"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=596060"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=596060"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}