{"id":596902,"date":"2023-11-07T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-07T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/5-predictions-for-election-day-2023\/"},"modified":"2023-11-07T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-11-07T11:00:00","slug":"5-predictions-for-election-day-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/5-predictions-for-election-day-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"#5 predictions for Election Day 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2e381071fbf\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2e381071fbf\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/5-predictions-for-election-day-2023\/#Clean_sweep_for_Republicans_in_Virginia_would_be_surprising\" >Clean sweep for Republicans in Virginia would be surprising\u00a0<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/5-predictions-for-election-day-2023\/#Kentucky_Mississippi_governors_anticipated_to_win_reelection\" >Kentucky, Mississippi governors anticipated to win reelection<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/5-predictions-for-election-day-2023\/#Ohio_abortion_ballot_measure_expected_to_pass\" >Ohio abortion ballot measure expected to pass<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/5-predictions-for-election-day-2023\/#Biden_could_face_blowback_if_Democrats_perform_poorly_in_Virginia_Ohio\" >Biden could face blowback if Democrats perform poorly in Virginia, Ohio\u00a0<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/5-predictions-for-election-day-2023\/#Experts_arent_expecting_any_surprising_upsets\" >Experts aren\u2019t expecting any surprising upsets<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/11\/TOP-Voting_110223_Messenger-Inquirer_Greg-Eans.jpg?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>States across the country are holding pivotal elections Tuesday for governor, state legislature and more, offering a gauge of the national mood heading into 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Virginia and New Jersey are among the states where voters will determine partisan control of their state\u2019s legislature, while Kentucky and Mississippi are holding gubernatorial races.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Ohio, meanwhile, is the latest battleground for the fight over abortion rights as voters weigh a ballot measure seeking to enshrine protections into the state constitution.<\/p>\n<p>Here are five predictions from experts on how Tuesday will shake out.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Clean_sweep_for_Republicans_in_Virginia_would_be_surprising\"><\/span><strong>Clean sweep for Republicans in Virginia would be surprising\u00a0<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Republicans are unlikely to turn both chambers of the Virginia state Legislature red Tuesday, according to Miles Coleman, an associate editor at Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA Republican sweep would be surprising. I say that because I would say the state Senate, if I was issuing formal ratings \u2026 probably leans democratic, but the [House of Delegates] is more of a toss up,\u201d Coleman said.<\/p>\n<p>All 140 state Legislature seats are up for election, including 100 seats in the House of Delegates and 40 in the state Senate. Democrats hold a 22-18 edge in the state Senate while Republicans hold a 52-48 edge in the House of Delegates.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/centerforpolitics.org\/crystalball\/articles\/the-race-for-virginias-legislature-part-two\/\">noted in September<\/a>\u00a0that control of both chambers would boil down to a handful of battleground districts, especially ones that went for President Biden in 2020 but went for Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) in 2021.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cTo me the kind of key data point there was \u2026 Younkin would have only carried 20 of the 40 districts in the Senate. So you kind of figure that, okay, well, Youngkin\u2019s numbers are like the Republican\u2019s ceiling almost and, you know, this year seems like it\u2019s just a less Republican year than 2021,\u201d Coleman added.<\/p>\n<p>Some experts do see a better night for Republicans. David Barker, director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University, believes Republicans would gain both the state Senate and House of Delegates.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t, by the way, think that it necessarily portends anything for 2024, but you know as we speak right now, it\u2019s a bad moment for Democrats, right?\u201d he said, pointing to internal divisions over the Israel-Hamas war and lack of enthusiasm for top-of-the-ticket candidates.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Kentucky_Mississippi_governors_anticipated_to_win_reelection\"><\/span><strong>Kentucky, Mississippi governors anticipated to win reelection<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Experts anticipate that Govs. Andy Beshear (D) of Kentucky and Tate Reeves (R) of Mississippi will hold onto their offices.<\/p>\n<p>Beshear is vying for another term against Republican Daniel Cameron while Reeves is running against Democrat Brandon Presley.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe just don\u2019t have enough [polling] to make me bet \u2026 to bet against the history, which is Republicans win statewide races here,\u201d said Marvin P. King Jr., an associate professor in the political <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/sciencee\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"5\" title=\"Science\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">science<\/a> department at the University of Mississippi, who noted a lack of consistent polling showing Presley outpacing Reeves.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>\u201cFor Reeves here and Beshear up in Kentucky, you know, the power of incumbency matters quite a bit,\u201d he added. \u201cSo I think [Beshear will] hold on and win there. It does tell me that voters can separate local incumbents from the national picture.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Glenn Antizzo, an associate professor in the department of history and political science at Mississippi College, said he couldn\u2019t confidently predict that Reeves would win reelection but said the election could hinge on two issues: the issue of health care as Presley leans into Medicaid expansion in the state and Reeves not being a popular governor in the state.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think a lot of that is personality, not policy,\u201d explained Antizzo.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr5_ab\"><\/aside>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Ohio_abortion_ballot_measure_expected_to_pass\"><\/span><strong>Ohio abortion ballot measure expected to pass<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>A proposed constitutional amendment that would enshrine abortion protections in Ohio\u2019s state constitution <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ears likely to pass Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFrom what we\u2019ve been able to tell, it looks like it\u2019s on track to pass, although \u2026 I maybe expect it to be closer than the referendum there earlier this year. I think part of that may be the pro-life side \u2026 has a good messenger in [Gov. Mike DeWine (R)],\u201d explained Coleman.<\/p>\n<p>Coleman was alluding to the special August election in which Ohioans were asked to weigh in on a separate proposed constitutional amendment that would have raised the threshold to amend the state Constitution from a simple majority to 60 percent.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr6_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>The measure ultimately failed, but if it had passed, it would have made it harder for Democrats and abortion rights groups to have passed their own measure Tuesday.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Biden_could_face_blowback_if_Democrats_perform_poorly_in_Virginia_Ohio\"><\/span><strong>Biden could face blowback if Democrats perform poorly in Virginia, Ohio\u00a0<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>President Biden could face blowback if Democrats perform worse than expected in key states, including Virginia and Ohio, some experts believe.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYes he will, but it\u2019ll be a little unfounded,\u201d said Barker of American University, adding later that \u201cpeople do carry their perceptions of the national party into these races.\u201d<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr7_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Coleman of Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball agreed, saying Biden could also see blame if Republicans establish a trifecta in Virginia\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf the Republicans end up taking both chambers of the Legislature, yeah, that would be \u2014 I would expect Biden to get a lot of the blame there just because, you know, in Virginia \u2026 there are a lot of things [that] seem to be informed by whatever\u2019s happening across the Potomac River,\u201d he explained.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Experts_arent_expecting_any_surprising_upsets\"><\/span><strong>Experts aren\u2019t expecting any surprising upsets<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Though the races Tuesday are expected to be tight in many cases, Barker said he doesn\u2019t expect any surprising upsets.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think all these things that we\u2019ve been talking about are close enough that they won\u2019t be [a] surprise,\u201d Barker explained.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe biggest surprise would be if the abortion rights referendum doesn\u2019t pass in Ohio. I mean, that\u2019s the one that we do have a significant amount of polling on. It\u2019s been, you know, for a while the pro-choice side has been in the lead on that for a while. And so if that were to go the other way, right, that would be a little bit of a shocker,\u201d he added.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2023 Nexstar <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Media<\/a> Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/4296340-5-predictions-for-election-day-2023\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>States across the country are holding pivotal elections Tuesday for governor, state legislature and more, offering a gauge of the national mood heading into 2024.\u00a0 Virginia and New Jersey are among the states where voters will determine partisan control of their state\u2019s legislature, while Kentucky and Mississippi are holding gubernatorial races.\u00a0 Ohio, meanwhile, is the&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":596903,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/11\/TOP-Voting_110223_Messenger-Inquirer_Greg-Eans.jpg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[146839,142477,138800,117,134343,142478,118259,73014,991,71467,139912,74215,115,72020,70289,138802,72971],"class_list":["post-596902","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-2023-elections","tag-andy-beshear","tag-brandon-presley","tag-business","tag-campaign","tag-daniel-cameron","tag-glenn-youngkin","tag-health-care","tag-joe-biden","tag-kentucky","tag-mike-dewine","tag-mississippi","tag-news","tag-ohio","tag-senate","tag-tate-reeves","tag-virginia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596902","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=596902"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596902\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/596903"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=596902"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=596902"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=596902"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}