{"id":597225,"date":"2023-11-10T16:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-10T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/putins-long-war-gamble-could-be-paying-off\/"},"modified":"2023-11-10T16:30:00","modified_gmt":"2023-11-10T13:30:00","slug":"putins-long-war-gamble-could-be-paying-off","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/putins-long-war-gamble-could-be-paying-off\/","title":{"rendered":"#Putin\u2019s long war gamble could be paying off"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/GettyImages-1657401884-e1694447343738.jpg?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>            <iframe title=\"Audio Article\" id=\"instaread_iframe\" name=\"instaread_playlist\" scrolling=\"no\" allow=\"autoplay\" style=\"display:block\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" frameborder=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>As Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine nears the end of its second year, a conclusion to the conflict seems as distant as ever.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Kyiv\u2019s counteroffensive has<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/europe\/2023\/11\/01\/ukraines-commander-in-chief-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia\">\u00a0failed<\/a>\u00a0to decisively break through the Russian Army\u2019s prepared defenses in Ukraine\u2019s southern and eastern regions. Meanwhile, the Kremlin is digging in for a long war and assumes it can outlast the West\u2019s interest and Ukraine\u2019s will to fight.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Without a firm U.S. commitment and strategy to see the war to a victorious conclusion, Putin\u2019s prediction that he can outlast Ukraine and the West may come to pass.<\/p>\n<p>During the summer and fall of 2023, the scale of Russia\u2019s societal, financial and political mobilization to support the war effort became <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>arent. Under the<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.themoscowtimes.com\/2023\/10\/26\/russian-lawmakers-back-massive-military-spending-increase-a82901\">\u00a0draft budget<\/a>\u00a0passed by the Russian State Duma on Oct. 26, defense spending for 2024 will rise by 68 percent to the equivalent of $115 billion, making up almost a third of total spending.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This explosion in military spending will help buoy the Russian economy for the<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/politika\/90753\">\u00a0long haul<\/a>, even if Russia\u2019s predicted 2024 economic growth rate of 2.3 percent (per the estimate of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development) will be accompanied by the inflationary effects of high <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">social<\/a> and military spending.<\/p>\n<p>Under the public<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interfax.ru\/russia\/880324\">\u00a0prodding<\/a>\u00a0of President Vladimir Putin, Russia\u2019s defense industry has expanded the production of key munitions and equipment for a long campaign.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Despite initial disruptions to defense production brought on by Western retaliatory sanctions following Russia\u2019s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow is reportedly \u201c<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/09\/13\/us\/politics\/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html\">on track<\/a>\u201d to manufacture 2 million artillery shells a year. To circumvent challenging U.S. sanctions on the export of critical electronics and chips to Russia, it has turned to creative import<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.thebell.io\/russias-big-sanctions-workaround\/\">\u00a0workarounds<\/a>\u00a0to acquire the critical components it lacks the ability to produce domestically.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Russia is also forging ahead with<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/moscow-tehran-advance-plans-for-iranian-designed-drone-facility-in-russia-11675609087\">\u00a0plans<\/a>\u00a0to produce 6,000 Iranian-developed drones in Tatarstan that would be necessary to sustain Russia\u2019s air bombardment campaign against Ukrainian civilian and military targets and to<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-11-01\/north-korea-sent-1-million-rounds-to-russia-spy-agency-says\">\u00a0import<\/a>\u00a0massive amounts of munitions from North Korea.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Rather than attempting a risky total mobilization of Russia\u2019s population, the Kremlin has continued to choose a more sustainable strategy of partial mobilization to support a long war.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In September 2022, the Kremlin announced a \u201c<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/kremlin.ru\/events\/president\/news\/69390\">partial mobilization<\/a>\u201d program to replace and refine a disjointed\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/covert-mobilization-reinforce-russian-troops-ukraine\/31943783.html\">shadow mobilization<\/a>\u00a0strategy, which avoided a single large manpower push with an eye on long-term viability. With the\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/putin-hand-grenade-fragments-found-bodies-prigozhin-plane-crash-2023-10-05\/\">assassination of Yevgeny Prigozhin<\/a>\u00a0in August, the Kremlin power vertical\u2019s most significant \u201cultra-patriot\u201d challenger from within the ruling elite has been<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/politika\/90466\">\u00a0removed<\/a>. The Wagner boss had already been<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2023\/jul\/12\/wagner-hands-thousands-of-tonnes-of-weaponry-to-russian-army\">\u00a0sidelined<\/a>\u00a0after his June mutiny, but his death likely gives the Kremlin reason to believe that it can continue to prosecute the war on its terms without fear of intra-elite challenges for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n<p>Just as Russia\u2019s logistical legwork to support a long war takes shape, the domestic and international factors that enable sustained U.S. support for Ukraine are weakening. Hamas\u2019s bloody October attack on Israel and Israel\u2019s<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/9a639400-f3bc-4142-b958-2d519c72984c\">\u00a0ground operation<\/a>\u00a0in Gaza has already knocked Ukraine out of the headlines. As the U.S. responds to Iranian proxy<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/middle-east\/iranian-backed-militias-mount-new-wave-of-attacks-as-u-s-supports-israel-d51364d4\">\u00a0attacks<\/a>\u00a0on its forces and<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2023\/10\/22\/israel-hamas-war-american-deploy-military-ships-troops\">\u00a0shift<\/a>\u00a0forces into the wider Middle East, the threat of an expanding conflict threatens to absorb Washington\u2019s bandwidth.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Encouragingly, the House has resolved its leadership crisis through Rep. Mike Johnson\u2019s (R-La.) selection to lead the chamber, who<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/video\/2023\/10\/27\/speaker_mike_johnson_we_need_to_bifurcate_ukraine_and_israel_funding.html\">\u00a0promised<\/a>\u00a0in an Oct. 26 interview that America would not abandon Ukraine. Despite his previous<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/ukraine-aid-johnson-house-speaker-impact\/32656630.html\">\u00a0opposition to<\/a>\u00a0Ukraine aid legislation as well as the White House and Senate\u2019s<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/us\/us-house-republicans-israel-only-aid-bill-faces-opposition-senate-2023-10-31\/\">\u00a0preference<\/a>\u00a0for a combined Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and border security package, Johnson plans to \u201cmarry\u201d Ukraine aid with border security in a bid to secure their passage together.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>No matter how this strategy is received by the conference, Johnson will need to delicately thread a needle of legislative priorities (including passing the fiscal year 2024<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/2023\/10\/24\/government-shutdown-house-speaker\/\">\u00a0budget<\/a>) to push Ukraine\u2019s aid package across the finish line, all while wrangling a Republican Conference whose interest in providing a large aid package to Ukraine is decidedly<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/congress\/house-republican-opposition-ukraine-aid-grows-threatening-funds-war-ra-rcna117406\">\u00a0mixed<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Nonetheless, Russia\u2019s war effort still faces substantial obstacles. While Russia has boosted its military industry, its economy is<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/breakingviews\/russian-war-economy-is-overheating-powder-keg-2023-10-25\/\">\u00a0distorted<\/a>\u00a0by the demands of wartime mobilization. Despite the\u00a0absence to date of decisive\u00a0breakthroughs in Ukraine\u2019s counteroffensive, Kyiv\u2019s forces continue\u00a0to inflict losses on Russian forces and<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/atacms-ukraine-longrange-missiles-5fd95f32449d14da22b82d57d6ccab22\">\u00a0reach<\/a>\u00a0into Russia\u2019s rear areas with long-range fires. Ukraine and its\u00a0Western partners have already demonstrated remarkable staying power in this conflict.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>However, staving off defeat will require Washington to provide a sustained flow of aid to Ukraine in pursuit of defined aims, no matter how domestic imperatives and events elsewhere in the world may demand attention elsewhere. Otherwise, the Kremlin\u2019s long bet on Western loss of interest in Ukraine could pay off.<\/p>\n<p><em>Wesley Culp is a research assistant for defense strategy and great-power competition at the American Enterprise Institute. He can be found on Twitter<\/em><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/WesleyJCulp\"><em>\u00a0<\/em><em>@WesleyJCulp<\/em><\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. 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Meanwhile, the Kremlin is digging in for a long war and assumes it can outlast the&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":597226,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/GettyImages-1657401884-e1694447343738.jpg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[134344,134353,124783,139592,71525,146893,141939,145140,143725,4965,146894,73234,140803],"class_list":["post-597225","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-administration","tag-court-battles","tag-international","tag-mike-johnson","tag-national-security","tag-politics-of-russia","tag-politics-of-the-united-states","tag-reactions-to-the-2021-2022-russo-ukrainian-crisis","tag-russo-ukrainian-war","tag-technology","tag-us-aid-to-ukraine","tag-vladimir-putin","tag-yevgeny-prigozhin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/597225","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=597225"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/597225\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/597226"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=597225"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=597225"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=597225"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}