{"id":598244,"date":"2023-11-19T21:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-19T18:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/from-peak-oil-to-peak-energy-what-might-the-world-expect\/"},"modified":"2023-11-19T21:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-11-19T18:00:00","slug":"from-peak-oil-to-peak-energy-what-might-the-world-expect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/from-peak-oil-to-peak-energy-what-might-the-world-expect\/","title":{"rendered":"#From \u2018peak oil\u2019 to \u2018peak energy\u2019: What might the world expect?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/64bd9b8b859293.80350525-e1698076499361.jpeg?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>            <iframe title=\"Audio Article\" id=\"instaread_iframe\" name=\"instaread_playlist\" scrolling=\"no\" allow=\"autoplay\" style=\"display:block\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" frameborder=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>The International Energy Agency\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/world-energy-outlook-2023\">now projects<\/a>\u00a0oil, gas, and coal use will all peak this decade. This constitutes a dramatic shift from\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.encyclopedie-energie.org\/en\/world-energy-consumption-1800-2000-results\/\">the last 150 years when the thirst for fossil fuels persistently rose<\/a>. But now this growth is nearing its end sooner than many expected,\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/f6155d7b-2ef7-4f62-a08a-b640b7e87fca\">driven in part by a surge in renewables<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This significant event, however, masks a more striking possible future: One in which total global energy use peaks and energy\u2019s weight in world affairs diminishes.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>The modern era has been marked by increasing energy demand, largely\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/world-energy-outlook-2022\">driven by<\/a>\u00a0rising populations (more people using energy) and growing economies and incomes fueling increased energy consumption per capita.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Over the last 50 years, energy use more than doubled from\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/key-world-energy-statistics-2021\/energy-balances\">250 exajoules to more than 600<\/a>\u00a0as the world\u2019s population increased from\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/SP.POP.TOTL\">3.7 to 7.8 billion<\/a>\u00a0people\u00a0and global GDP expanded from\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD\">$3 trillion to more than $85 trillion<\/a>. The IEA projects energy demand may\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/world-energy-outlook-2022\">grow another 25 percent by 2050<\/a>, servicing 9.7 billion people and a world economy projected to have further expanded annually by just under 3 percent.\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/world-energy-outlook-2022\">Renewables increase dramatically<\/a>\u00a0to meet this demand.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Significantly, energy use drops under the\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/world-energy-outlook-2021\">IEA\u2019s climate scenarios<\/a>, driven by more robust climate policies than currently exist. While these scenarios may eventually materialize to counter the threat of climate change, they remain uncertain.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>There are, however, three forces operating largely independent of climate considerations that are likely to lead to peak global energy use before the end of this century. They are longer-term downward global population trends, structural shifts in emerging economies as their incomes rise and continued progress in energy efficiency.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Ever since\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.activesustainability.com\/sustainable-development\/malthus-food-production-population-growth\/?_adin=02021864894\">Malthus coined his theory<\/a>, there have been fears that exponential population growth would outs<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/trip-and-travel\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"10\" title=\"Trip &amp; Travel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">trip<\/a> food supply. Now, rather than uncontrolled population growth, the projections point to a\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/population.un.org\/dataportal\/data\/indicators\/49\/locations\/900\/start\/2050\/end\/2100\/line\/linetimeplot\">global peak around 2085<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.healthdata.org\/news-events\/newsroom\/news-releases\/lancet-world-population-likely-shrink-after-mid-century\">earlier<\/a>, dropping thereafter to below 9 billion people by this century\u2019s end. This new trend removes what had been an important source of upward pressure on global energy use.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Second, as countries initially develop, they transition from agrarian to more energy-intensive industrial activities. But as they continue to grow, their economies move to less energy-intensive\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/s\/service-sector.asp\">services<\/a>\u00a0activities, now\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS?locations=CN-IN-XD-EU-US-JP\">dominant in advanced economies<\/a>\u00a0and expanding in\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS?end=2020&amp;locations=CN-IN&amp;start=2000\">China, India<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS?end=2020&amp;locations=ID-MX-MY-TH-PH-BR&amp;start=2000\">other emerging economies<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Third, energy efficiency programs being implemented\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/energy.ec.europa.eu\/topics\/energy-efficiency\/energy-efficiency-targets-directive-and-rules\/energy-efficiency-directive_en\">worldwide<\/a>, including in the\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nrel.gov\/docs\/fy10osti\/46532.pdf\">U.S.<\/a>,\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/articles\/e4-country-profile-energy-efficiency-in-china\">China<\/a>\u00a0and other large economies, are dampening demand even as economies expand. These programs are\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/statelocalenergy\/state-energy-efficiency-benefits-and-opportunities\">motivated by both non-climate objectives<\/a>\u00a0(e.g.,\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/energy-efficiency-2022\">enhanced energy security and affordability<\/a>) and\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/energy.ec.europa.eu\/news\/european-green-deal-energy-efficiency-directive-adopted-helping-make-eu-fit-55-2023-07-25_en\">climate ones<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>These forces have already helped produce energy peaks in the\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/countries\/united-states\">U.S.<\/a>,\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/countries\/japan\">Japan<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/regions\/europe\">Europe<\/a>. Emerging economies and poorer countries are at earlier phases of development \u2014 a reason why the IEA has projected further\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/world-energy-outlook-2020\">growth in energy demand in China, India and elsewhere<\/a>. But even there, population, structural and energy efficiency dynamics are ultimately likely to have their effect. For example, China\u2019s energy demand\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/world-energy-outlook-2023\">is now projected to peak later this decade<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Why is this \u201cpeak energy\u201d significant? Because it will have a variety of economic, policy, geopolitical and even security impacts.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>For example, it points to a future global economic landscape in which energy plays a diminished role. This includes a lower share of energy in global GDP, especially as economies continue to grow, and even potentially a peak in energy spending in absolute terms after accounting for inflation.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>One dynamic likely to drive this change in spending is the shift from\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/world-energy-investment-2023\/overview-and-key-findings\">large capital investments<\/a>\u00a0involved in expanding energy systems or\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/net-zero-by-2050\">transitioning to a low emissions future<\/a>,\u00a0to the less costly maintenance and periodic replacement of assets inherent in a peaked system. Another is the ongoing displacement of fossil fuels that require recurring\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/world-energy-investment-2023\/overview-and-key-findings\">new exploration and development expenditures<\/a>\u00a0with renewables which are inherently self-replenishing.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Renewables, moreover, typically draw from national resources such as local sunshine and wind patterns rather than foreign trade. As these resources move into a leading role in a peak energy future, domestic policies and considerations should gain importance for governments relative to trade and other international ones.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Other affected areas will include diplomacy, including the lessened importance\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/saudi-arabia-china-iran-boeing-biden-d1aad0d6aae71993d7bc7e6336006a72\">of petrostates<\/a>\u00a0for the U.S., China\u00a0and the military, such as a possible redeployment of the\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.navsea.navy.mil\/Home\/RMC\/FDRMC\/Bahrain\/WhyBahrain\/OurMission\/5thFleet.aspx\">U.S. Fifth Fleet<\/a>\u00a0from the Persian Gulf. These shifts may already begin to be triggered by peak oil and gas even before the advent of peak energy but will likely deepen under the latter.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Various developments could counter energy peaking, such as a surge in energy-intensive activities like\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.traveldailymedia.com\/could-space-tourism-become-the-next-big-thing-in-tour-and-travel-industry\/\">space tourism<\/a>. Another frightening possibility is\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/np\/exr\/center\/mm\/eng\/mm_dr_01.htm#:~:text=The%20Most%20Destructive%20War%20in,both%20military%20and%20civilian%20lives.\">widespread war as seen last century<\/a>. Combat consumes a great deal of fuel and reconstructing buildings and infrastructure destroyed by war is energy-intensive. Alternatively, the discovery of a cheap, clean and accessible energy source such as\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/research-and-innovation\/en\/horizon-magazine\/dream-unlimited-clean-nuclear-fusion-energy-within-reach\">fusion<\/a>\u00a0could lead to creative new ways to use that energy.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Conversely, more robust climate policies can accelerate peak energy. For example, the\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/world-energy-outlook-2023\">IEA\u2019s Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario<\/a>\u00a0foresees a global energy use in 2050 which is 15 percent lower than today\u2019s total. This drop is driven largely by\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/energy-efficiency-2021\">strengthened energy efficiency programs<\/a>\u00a0that counteract the upward pressures of population and economic growth.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr5_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>However, in contrast to peak coal or oil being potentially followed by significant declines in their use over time, peak energy is unlikely to presage a subsequent large drop in consumption as growing economies will buoy demand. In fact, as GDP growth continues through the next century and beyond, energy demand could once again start to rise as, notably, energy efficiency gains reach their limits.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In a broader sense, just as history has included the stone, bronze and iron ages, we have been living since the Industrial Revolution in an energy age. But this age, during which energy has dominated so many economic, geopolitical and other dimensions, may be coming to an end with peak energy.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Beyond the projections of oil, gas and coal demand reaching its heights this decade, and notwithstanding the current growth in renewables, overall energy use may also hit a high point later this century. This \u201cpeak energy\u201d is a future we should now start contemplating and analyzing.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr6_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p><em>Philippe Benoit is an <em>adjunct senior research scholar at Columbia University\u2019s Center on Global Energy Policy<\/em><\/em>, <em> research director for\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.gis2050.com\/\">Global Infrastructure Analytics and Sustainability 2050<\/a>\u00a0and was previously division head for energy efficiency at the International Energy Agency.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2023 Nexstar <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Media<\/a> Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/opinion\/energy-environment\/4315138-from-peak-oil-to-peak-energy-what-should-the-world-expect\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The International Energy Agency\u00a0now projects\u00a0oil, gas, and coal use will all peak this decade. This constitutes a dramatic shift from\u00a0the last 150 years when the thirst for fossil fuels persistently rose. But now this growth is nearing its end sooner than many expected,\u00a0driven in part by a surge in renewables.\u00a0 This significant event, however, masks&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":598245,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/64bd9b8b859293.80350525-e1698076499361.jpeg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[134344,134343,134447,145196,147129,118283,90482,115,141939,70753,70289],"class_list":["post-598244","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-administration","tag-campaign","tag-energy-and-environment","tag-energy-policy","tag-energy-use","tag-fossil-fuels","tag-house","tag-news","tag-politics-of-the-united-states","tag-renewable-energy","tag-senate"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598244","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=598244"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598244\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/598245"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=598244"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=598244"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=598244"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}