{"id":615112,"date":"2024-04-01T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-04-01T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/senate-rankings-5-seats-most-likely-to-flip\/"},"modified":"2024-04-01T13:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-04-01T10:00:00","slug":"senate-rankings-5-seats-most-likely-to-flip","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/senate-rankings-5-seats-most-likely-to-flip\/","title":{"rendered":"#Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3c57503e784\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a3c57503e784\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/senate-rankings-5-seats-most-likely-to-flip\/#Montana\" >Montana<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/senate-rankings-5-seats-most-likely-to-flip\/#Ohio\" >Ohio<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/senate-rankings-5-seats-most-likely-to-flip\/#Arizona\" >Arizona<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/senate-rankings-5-seats-most-likely-to-flip\/#Pennsylvania\" >Pennsylvania<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/senate-rankings-5-seats-most-likely-to-flip\/#Wisconsin\" >Wisconsin\u00a0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>The Senate battlefield is increasingly locked in as Republicans turn their attention from the primaries to the November contests in a bid to turn the chamber red.<\/p>\n<p>Much has changed in the four months since\u00a0The Hill last updated this space, including\u00a0retirements,\u00a0surprise candidacies\u00a0and primary\u00a0wins.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\">\n<\/aside>\n<p>Republicans have settled on nominees in key states as they look to retake the upper chamber, while Democrats are looking at their crop of battle-tested incumbents to carry the year for them. And both sides are laser-focused on Ohio and Montana as the two most competitive contests.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, there are warning signs flashing at the top of the ticket as President Biden has been unable to reverse his polling drop, giving Republicans a shot in the arm more than seven months out from Election Day.<\/p>\n<p>Both sides readily admit West Virginia will fall into the GOP column in November, with Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin\u2019s\u00a0retirement from the deep red state. That means Republicans only need to flip one other state to control the upper chamber.<\/p>\n<p>Here are the five other Senate seats most likely to flip.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Montana\"><\/span>Montana<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Republicans are breathing easier after Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) ended his Senate campaign, handing the primary to businessman Tim Sheehy and giving the GOP a clearer shot at defeating Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.).<\/p>\n<p>Tester is a top target of Republicans, who are hopeful they can flip the deeply red state in November. And Sheehy was a top recruit of Senate Republican leaders.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\">\n<\/aside>\n<p>Both campaigns have been on the air for months, with Tester holding a slight edge according to the latest public polling. An Emerson College\/The Hill survey released in early March showed Tester with a 2-point advantage over Sheehy, who is steadily building name ID.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1400\" height=\"787\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/The-Hill-Graphics-1.png?w=900\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4512279\" srcset=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/The-Hill-Graphics-1.png 1400w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/The-Hill-Graphics-1.png?resize=160,90 160w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/The-Hill-Graphics-1.png?resize=300,169 300w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/The-Hill-Graphics-1.png?resize=768,432 768w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/The-Hill-Graphics-1.png?resize=1280,720 1280w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/The-Hill-Graphics-1.png?resize=645,363 645w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/The-Hill-Graphics-1.png?resize=320,180 320w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/The-Hill-Graphics-1.png?resize=256,144 256w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/The-Hill-Graphics-1.png?resize=512,288 512w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/The-Hill-Graphics-1.png?resize=640,360 640w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/The-Hill-Graphics-1.png?resize=876,492 876w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/The-Hill-Graphics-1.png?resize=960,540 960w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/The-Hill-Graphics-1.png?resize=50,28 50w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 899px) 100vw, 876px\"><\/figure>\n<p>Tester also leads by 10 points among independents, while 14 percent of Trump supporters report that they back the three-term Democrat.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>But whether he can overcome the impact of Trump in the state remains a real question.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\">\n<\/aside>\n<p>The former president won the state by more than 15 points four years ago, with that margin potentially increasing as President Biden\u2019s standing in the polls have dipped nationwide.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s going to be tough,\u201d one Democratic operative conceded. \u201cBut Montana has that ability to zag when people zig.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Ohio\"><\/span>Ohio<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Republicans got the last piece of the GOP candidate jigsaw puzzle when businessman Bernie Moreno prevailed in a three-way contest for the right to take on Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who is looking to overcome the state\u2019s increasingly red hue to secure a fourth term in office.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\">\n<\/aside>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1400\" height=\"787\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/brownsherrod_010924gn01_w.jpg?w=900\" alt=\"Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio)\" class=\"wp-image-4397885\" srcset=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/brownsherrod_010924gn01_w.jpg 1400w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/brownsherrod_010924gn01_w.jpg?resize=160,90 160w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/brownsherrod_010924gn01_w.jpg?resize=300,169 300w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/brownsherrod_010924gn01_w.jpg?resize=768,432 768w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/brownsherrod_010924gn01_w.jpg?resize=1280,720 1280w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/brownsherrod_010924gn01_w.jpg?resize=645,363 645w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/brownsherrod_010924gn01_w.jpg?resize=320,180 320w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/brownsherrod_010924gn01_w.jpg?resize=256,144 256w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/brownsherrod_010924gn01_w.jpg?resize=512,288 512w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/brownsherrod_010924gn01_w.jpg?resize=640,360 640w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/brownsherrod_010924gn01_w.jpg?resize=876,492 876w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/brownsherrod_010924gn01_w.jpg?resize=960,540 960w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/brownsherrod_010924gn01_w.jpg?resize=50,28 50w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 899px) 100vw, 876px\"><\/figure>\n<p>The final weeks saw the race narrow between Moreno and state Sen. Matt Dolan (R), but Trump world and undecided Republicans powered him to a 17-point victory.<\/p>\n<p>For some national Democrats, Moreno, who was endorsed by Trump, is the perfect candidate for Brown to take on this fall. The Senate Majority PAC believed it to the tune of a $2.7 million ad campaign to boost Moreno ahead of the primary.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think Democrats were right to want [Moreno]. If it was Dolan, there\u2019s zero chance Brown returns,\u201d one GOP operative said. \u201cI think Moreno is the favorite today, but it\u2019s not a lock by any stretch.\u201d<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr5_ab\">\n<\/aside>\n<p>Ohio has trended rightward for years, but Republicans aren\u2019t casting doubt on Brown, who has proven to be a difficult opponent for years and is in a\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dispatch.com\/story\/news\/politics\/elections\/2024\/02\/01\/ohio-senate-race-sherrod-brown-starts-2024-with-14-million-in-bank\/72234280007\/\">strong spot financially<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI would never underestimate Sherrod Brown,\u201d former Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio) said. \u201cHe\u2019s the best retail politician in Ohio.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The GOP operative specifically cited Brown\u2019s\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/host2.adimpact.com\/admo\/viewer\/b7d1f60b-90e5-4db3-a606-de979319e389\">recent ad featuring<\/a>\u00a0law enforcement officers touting Brown\u2019s work on the fentanyl crisis.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr6_ab\">\n<\/aside>\n<p>\u201cI would run that in a GOP primary,\u201d the operative said.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Arizona\"><\/span>Arizona<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Sen. Kyrsten Sinema\u2019s (I-Ariz.) decision not to seek a second term has removed a lot of the intrigue from the Grand Canyon State, clearing the path for what is expected to be a close race between Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Republican Kari Lake.<\/p>\n<p>Sinema\u2019s exit from the race initially boosted Lake\u2019s chances because the sitting senator was pulling GOP support at roughly double the rate of Democratic voters.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr7_ab\">\n<\/aside>\n<p>It also pushed a number of Senate Republicans, who had stayed on the sidelines out of deference to Sinema\u2019s track record of bipartisan work, to back Lake. And it encouraged Republican operatives who are hopeful Sinema\u2019s decision will open up some wallets in the business community.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Still, recent chatter hasn\u2019t been as good for Lake, who was defeated in the 2022 gubernatorial election, as Republicans have grown increasingly bearish about her chances against Gallego.<\/p>\n<p>An Emerson College poll conducted in mid-March showed Gallego receiving 44 percent support and Lake pulling in 40 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Lake\u2019s\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2024\/03\/26\/kari-lake-defamation-lawsuit-damages\/\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2024\/03\/26\/kari-lake-defamation-lawsuit-damages\/\">decision last week<\/a>\u00a0not to defend her past statements about an Arizona election official who is suing her for defamation added a layer of doubt.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t think we can ever be confident in Lake,\u201d the GOP operative said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1400\" height=\"787\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/lakekari_030524gn04_w.jpg?w=900\" alt=\"Arizona Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake\" class=\"wp-image-4510616\" srcset=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/lakekari_030524gn04_w.jpg 1400w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/lakekari_030524gn04_w.jpg?resize=160,90 160w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/lakekari_030524gn04_w.jpg?resize=300,169 300w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/lakekari_030524gn04_w.jpg?resize=768,432 768w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/lakekari_030524gn04_w.jpg?resize=1280,720 1280w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/lakekari_030524gn04_w.jpg?resize=645,363 645w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/lakekari_030524gn04_w.jpg?resize=320,180 320w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/lakekari_030524gn04_w.jpg?resize=256,144 256w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/lakekari_030524gn04_w.jpg?resize=512,288 512w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/lakekari_030524gn04_w.jpg?resize=640,360 640w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/lakekari_030524gn04_w.jpg?resize=876,492 876w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/lakekari_030524gn04_w.jpg?resize=960,540 960w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/lakekari_030524gn04_w.jpg?resize=50,28 50w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 899px) 100vw, 876px\"><\/figure>\n<p>Republicans are also dismayed that Gallego is\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/ruben-gallego-arizona-senate-ads-kari-lake-24d08074013ed51d544b1204d12daf30\">already up on the airwaves<\/a>\u00a0in an effort to define himself, and he is doing so unopposed. For a candidate largely considered progressive and not in the mold of Democrats who\u2019ve won statewide in Arizona, Democrats believe he is doing everything he needs to.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s a reason why they elected Sinema and [Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.)] is so popular,\u201d the Democratic operative said, noting that Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) did not run a top-notch campaign against Lake last cycle, and still she pulled off a squeaker.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cShe ran a meandering race, she didn\u2019t handle the debate question well. There was a lot of angst pre-election,\u201d the operative continued. \u201cAnd she ended up winning.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Pennsylvania\"><\/span>Pennsylvania<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The air wars in the Keystone State started in earnest this week as Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Republican David McCormick both went up with their first batch of television ads.<\/p>\n<p>McCormick faces an uphill climb to oust the three-term incumbent despite his financial might, but national and state Republicans are pleased with the former Bridgewater Associates CEO\u2019s campaign thus far.<\/p>\n<p>Still, their fears that toppling Casey might be too tall of a task haven\u2019t been fully assuaged.<\/p>\n<p>The GOP operative contrasted McCormick\u2019s route to victory for McCormick to Lake\u2019s in Arizona. For Lake, the hope is to run as close to Trump as possible and pull off a narrow win in a state where margins of victory on either side are slim.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1400\" height=\"787\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Collage-Maker-15-Mar-2023-08-07-AM-7404.png?w=900\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3901209\" srcset=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Collage-Maker-15-Mar-2023-08-07-AM-7404.png 1400w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Collage-Maker-15-Mar-2023-08-07-AM-7404.png?resize=160,90 160w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Collage-Maker-15-Mar-2023-08-07-AM-7404.png?resize=300,169 300w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Collage-Maker-15-Mar-2023-08-07-AM-7404.png?resize=768,432 768w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Collage-Maker-15-Mar-2023-08-07-AM-7404.png?resize=1280,720 1280w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Collage-Maker-15-Mar-2023-08-07-AM-7404.png?resize=645,363 645w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Collage-Maker-15-Mar-2023-08-07-AM-7404.png?resize=320,180 320w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Collage-Maker-15-Mar-2023-08-07-AM-7404.png?resize=256,144 256w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Collage-Maker-15-Mar-2023-08-07-AM-7404.png?resize=512,288 512w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Collage-Maker-15-Mar-2023-08-07-AM-7404.png?resize=640,360 640w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Collage-Maker-15-Mar-2023-08-07-AM-7404.png?resize=876,492 876w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Collage-Maker-15-Mar-2023-08-07-AM-7404.png?resize=960,540 960w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/Collage-Maker-15-Mar-2023-08-07-AM-7404.png?resize=50,28 50w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 899px) 100vw, 876px\"><\/figure>\n<p>McCormick\u2019s path is much different and would likely mirror what former Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) pulled off in 2016, when Trump outran him in deep red and rural counties, while he ran strong in the Philadelphia collar counties and earned a 1.5-percentage point win.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>To do that, McCormick has to either give Biden supporters a reason to back him, or rely on an unforced error by Casey, who isn\u2019t known for them.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHe needs to get Biden\/McCormick voters, and to do so you need an issue in which Casey has done something drastically wrong,\u201d the operative said, noting that Toomey messaged heavily on the Iran Nuclear Deal that cycle to great success in Southeastern Pennsylvania. \u201cWhat is that thing to peel off Biden voters, because there\u2019s just drop off from Trump voters to Dave, and there\u2019s nothing they can do to fix that.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201c[McCormick\u2019s campaign] is not doing it wrong. I just fear they can be perfect and still not be able to win,\u201d the operative continued.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>According to the latest survey conducted by Emerson\/The Hill, Casey leads McCormick by 4 percentage points. The incumbent Democrat holds that advantage despite Trump topping Biden by the same margin.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Wisconsin\"><\/span>Wisconsin\u00a0<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The entrance of Eric Hovde, a wealthy businessman, into the Wisconsin Senate race is giving the GOP something it hasn\u2019t had since Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) first won her seat 12 years ago: a real chance at defeating her.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1400\" height=\"787\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/MixCollage-20-Mar-2024-12-45-PM-7988.jpg?w=900\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4545270\" srcset=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/MixCollage-20-Mar-2024-12-45-PM-7988.jpg 1400w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/MixCollage-20-Mar-2024-12-45-PM-7988.jpg?resize=160,90 160w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/MixCollage-20-Mar-2024-12-45-PM-7988.jpg?resize=300,169 300w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/MixCollage-20-Mar-2024-12-45-PM-7988.jpg?resize=768,432 768w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/MixCollage-20-Mar-2024-12-45-PM-7988.jpg?resize=1280,720 1280w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/MixCollage-20-Mar-2024-12-45-PM-7988.jpg?resize=645,363 645w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/MixCollage-20-Mar-2024-12-45-PM-7988.jpg?resize=320,180 320w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/MixCollage-20-Mar-2024-12-45-PM-7988.jpg?resize=256,144 256w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/MixCollage-20-Mar-2024-12-45-PM-7988.jpg?resize=512,288 512w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/MixCollage-20-Mar-2024-12-45-PM-7988.jpg?resize=640,360 640w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/MixCollage-20-Mar-2024-12-45-PM-7988.jpg?resize=876,492 876w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/MixCollage-20-Mar-2024-12-45-PM-7988.jpg?resize=960,540 960w, https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/MixCollage-20-Mar-2024-12-45-PM-7988.jpg?resize=50,28 50w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 899px) 100vw, 876px\"><\/figure>\n<p>According to the latest\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/wisconsin-2024-trump-46-biden-43\/\">Emerson\/The Hill survey<\/a>, Baldwin holds a 3-point advantage over Hovde, who is expected to spend in the neighborhood of $20 million of his own money on the contest. Hovde went on the air almost im<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">media<\/a>tely after he announced his campaign and has been running television ads since.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Republicans are also heartened by some key numbers early on, including that Baldwin is short of 50 percent support in polls and that only 42 percent <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>rove of her work, according to the latest\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/poll\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/MLSP77ToplinesRV.html#D1:_FavUnfav_Tammy_Baldwin\">Marquette Law School poll<\/a>\u00a0taken in January.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Democrats, though, remain confident that Baldwin\u2019s winning ways will continue and that she is doing everything she needs to.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>They also constantly point to their ongoing attempt to define Hovde as an out of touch carpetbagger who is trying to nab the seat and isn\u2019t \u201cone of us.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe contrast there is great,\u201d said a Democratic strategist with experience working on Senate races, pointing to Baldwin\u2019s recent Dairyland tour and emphasis on rural areas. \u201cTammy talking about rural priorities and going to places Dems don\u2019t always go in Wisconsin compared to a guy who flew in from California to try to buy a Senate seat.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMN63nwsw68G3Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/senate\/4564443-senate-rankings-seats-flip\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Senate battlefield is increasingly locked in as Republicans turn their attention from the primaries to the November contests in a bid to turn the chamber red. Much has changed in the four months since\u00a0The Hill last updated this space, including\u00a0retirements,\u00a0surprise candidacies\u00a0and primary\u00a0wins. Republicans have settled on nominees in key states as they look to&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":615113,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Senate_033024_Photo_AP.png?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[144271,117,134343,90482,991,137265,112997,137373,134351,70289,136339],"class_list":["post-615112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bernie-moreno","tag-business","tag-campaign","tag-house","tag-joe-biden","tag-jon-tester","tag-kyrsten-sinema","tag-matt-rosendale","tag-morning-report","tag-senate","tag-sherrod-brown"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/615112","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=615112"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/615112\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/615113"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=615112"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=615112"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=615112"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}